Blogger So Dear - Wake Forest stuns North Carolina, 73-67The Wake Forest Demon Deacon sports blog where Charlie Brown is still trying to kick that football...https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47639/blogger-fave.png2014-01-06T10:58:20-05:00http://www.bloggersodear.com/rss/stream/50409432014-01-06T10:58:20-05:002014-01-06T10:58:20-05:00How Wake Forest Beat North Carolina
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<figcaption>Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>By now we all know that Wake Forest beat the North Carolina Tar Heels 73-67. Keep reading to find out how the Deacs knocked off the Heels despite losing the rebounding battle by (gulp) 19.</p> <p>It seems unfathomable that a team who was expected to lose according to <a href="http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/matchups/north-carolina-@-wake-forest.cfm/date/01-05-14/time/2000" target="_blank">Vegas</a> and <a href="http://kenpom.com/" target="_blank">KenPom</a> won by six points despite getting beat on the boards by a whopping 19 rebounds. Somehow head coach of the Demon Deacons, Jeff Bzdelik, thought Wake was actually <a href="https://vine.co/v/hYD5EqFrOnA" target="_blank">rebounding well</a> despite getting beat on the boards by 18 at halftime. How did they do it? Let's check out the <a href="http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/20040601_roboscout.htm" target="_blank">four factors of basketbal</a>l to find out.</p>
<p><b>Effective Field Goal %</b></p>
<p>Wake Forest dominated a category which is the most important indicator of success. Wake Forest shot a total of 26-54 from the field, including 2-12 from beyond the arc for an eFG% of 50%. Meanwhile, North Carolina shot just 29-75, including 2-15 from beyond the arc for an eFG% of 40%. So despite shooting 21 more times than Wake Forest, the Tar Heels managed just 3 more made field goals.</p>
<p><b>Turnover %</b></p>
<p>This was a reason for caution headed into last night's contest. North Carolina is very aggressive on the defensive end and forces a lot of turnovers, but that can make them susceptible to the back door cut. Wash, rinse, repeat. North Carolina turns opponents over more than 1 out of every 5 possessions, but were only able to turn the Deacs over on 17% of possessions last night. On the reverse, Wake Forest typically struggles to force turnovers, but were able to turn the Tar Heels over on 23% of possessions last night and that led to 19 points off turnovers. Another critically important factor and another win for the Deacs. Now about rebounding...</p>
<p><b>Offensive and Defensive Rebounding %</b></p>
<p>If you watched the game, then I certainly don't need to tell you the stats for you to know that North Carolina dominated the glass all night. Wake Forest managed to grab just 21.6% of offensive rebounding opportunities, which is well below their season average of 33.7%. North Carolina grabbed a whopping 48% of offensive rebounding opportunities which is a staggering number and about 10% more than their season average of 38.4%. These numbers clearly reflect absolute dominance by North Carolina, but remember that this is only the third most important factor, and far less important than effective field goal percentage.</p>
<p><b>Free Throw Rate</b></p>
<p>Wake Forest dominated this category more than North Carolina dominated the rebounding category. On the year, North Carolina has been fantastic at getting to the line as they typically shoot one free throw for every two field goal attempts, which is top 36 nationally. Last night, however, the Tar Heels managed just 11 free throw attempts, which translated to a free throw rate of just 14.7%. Wake Forest, specifically <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/178429/codi-miller-mcintyre">Codi Miller-McIntyre</a>, was relentless in attacking the basket and got to the line 33 times for a free throw rate of 61.1%, which would be the nation's third best free throw rate if they did that every game. Yes, Wake Forest shot a woeful 57.6% from the foul line, but even that translates to 1.15 points per possession, which was above our overall 0.99 points per possession last night.</p>
<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>
<p>So it wasn't pretty, and they didn't win every aspect of the game, but Wake Forest was good where it mattered most. Ultimately, rebounding is overrated if you can't put the ball in the basket. That may sound fundamental and obvious, but it's also the exact reason Wake Forest beat North Carolina last night.</p>
https://www.bloggersodear.com/2014/1/6/5279684/how-wake-forest-beat-north-carolina-tar-heels-basketball-accRobert Reinhard2014-01-05T23:47:58-05:002014-01-05T23:47:58-05:00Defense propels Deacs to upset over No. 19 Heels
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<img alt="A happy bench greets senior Travis McKie after he hits a 3-pointer in the 2nd half of Wake's 73-67 victory Sunday night" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/25B_Pp21DW-jDBODkEMiQj2JKVM=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/26335133/20140105_sng_bb4_141.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>A happy bench greets senior Travis McKie after he hits a 3-pointer in the 2nd half of Wake's 73-67 victory Sunday night | Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Wake Forest held the 19th-ranked Heels to less than 40% shooting and start the ACC season on a winning note.</p> <p>WINSTON-SALEM, NC-- What if I told you a Wake Forest team could get out-rebounded by 19, shoot 19-33 from the free throw line and beat No. 19 North Carolina? No, that isn't a premise for the next <i>30 for 30</i> on <i>ESPN</i>. Rather, it is what actually occured Sunday night, as the Demon Deacons defeated the Tar Heels 73-67 in front of a raucous crowd of 12,462 at Joel Coliseum.</p>
<p><span>"First of all, I want to thank our fans," head coach Jeff Bzdelik said as he opened his postgame media session. "Just a great team effort by our team. They all stood out."</span></p>
<p><span>Senior Travis McKie scored 16 points, including a streaking layup and-one as the Deacs feverishly clung to a 3-point lead with just over a minute remaining. Arnaud William Adala Moto scored 11 points and grabbed 9 rebounds on the night, but it was his 4 straight made free throws that helped ice the game for the Deacs. Despite once again shooting poorly from the line as a team (57.6%), Wake Forest made 6 straight free throws in the final minute to preserve the victory.</span></p>
<p><span>The pivotal moment for Wake Forest came after a <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/145816/james-michael-mcadoo">James Michael McAdoo</a> dunk with 5:49 remaining brought the Tar Heels within 6, 56-50. The Deacs' Madison Jones then turned the ball over, leading to a loose-ball scrum between <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/99812/leslie-mcdonald">Leslie McDonald</a> and Tyler Cavanaugh. In the struggle for possession on the floor, McDonald elbowed Cavanaugh and the officials went to the replay monitor. McDonald was called for the technical, and McKie made one of two- the second rebounded and put back by <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/178425/devin-thomas">Devin Thomas</a>.</span></p>
<p><span>"We weren't tough enough, physical enough, strong enough, explosive enough whatever to finish the plays at that point," North Carolina head coach Roy Williams said. We got it to a one possesion game then we took two shots that we rushed. Congratulate Jeff and his staff and his team."</span></p>
<p><span>The Deacons (11-3, 1-0 ACC) held a tenuous 34-32 lead at halftime despite being out-rebounded 17-1 on the offensive glass. Thomas missed much of the first half, sidelined with 2 early fouls. Meanwhile, UNC head coach Roy Williams elected to leave starters McAdoo and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/177511/j-p-tokoto">J.P. Tokoto</a> in the game despite their early foul trouble. The gamble backfired, as both collected their third foul before the halftime buzzer sounded.</span></p>
<p><span>McAdoo led the scoring for the Tar Heels (10-4, 0-1 ACC) with 13 points, followed by 12 apiece from Tokoto and Brice Johnson. The Deacs took advantage of UNC's 17 turnovers, scoring 19 points. The Tar Heels ultimately could not take advantage of their advantage on the offensive boards, garnering only 17 second chance points off 24 offensive rebounds.</span></p>
<p><span>The Deacs' defensive effort was greatly augmented by Aaron Rountree's best effort thus far on the young season. Rountree blocked 4 Tar Heel shots and altered several more, and was also credited with 3 steals. Jones, who found his way back into the starting lineup after a few games coming off the bench, also had 3 steals to go along with his 6 points and 3 assists.</span></p>
<p><span>Next up for the Demon Deacons are two straight road games, beginning Wednesday night at Virginia (7 p.m., RSN). Wake will then travel to Pittsburgh on Saturday to face the Panthers in a noon game (ACC Network). Wake Forest will return home on Wednesday, January 15 for a 9:00 p.m. tussle with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/teams/n-c-state-wolfpack">N.C. State Wolfpack</a>.</span></p>
https://www.bloggersodear.com/2014/1/5/5278714/defense-propels-deacs-to-upset-over-no-19-tar-heelsJ.P. Mundy2014-01-05T19:00:04-05:002014-01-05T19:00:04-05:00Game Thread: Wake Forest vs. north carolina
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<img alt="Devin Thomas needs to be huge for the Deacs to overcome the Heels Sunday night" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/sHuz-ocyL2U6rwVQWdsjL9ZIrJw=/0x1080:2762x2921/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/26311077/20131204_krj_aj6_581.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Devin Thomas needs to be huge for the Deacs to overcome the Heels Sunday night | Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Presenting your obligatory game thread for tonight's game between the Demon Deacons and tar heels. Play nice!</p> <p>First half recap:</p>
<p>After a track meet of a first half, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/teams/wake-forest-demon-deacons">Wake Forest Demon Deacons</a> lead the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/teams/north-carolina-tar-heels">North Carolina Tar Heels</a>, 34-32. This, despite the Heels simply owning the boards, 36-14. Wake Forest held UNCto 32.5 percent shooting, and forced 9 turnovers. The Deacs could be up by even more, but are only 8-18 from the free throw line.</p>
<p>The gameplan on offense has been to get the guards a lane to the basket and create contact. This is working, with <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/145816/james-michael-mcadoo">James Michael McAdoo</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/177511/j-p-tokoto">J.P. Tokoto</a> saddled with 3 fouls apiece. The Deacons also played a significant portion of the first half with sophomore <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/178425/devin-thomas">Devin Thomas</a> on the bench with 2 fouls.</p>
<p>If the Deacs can keep up the defensive intensity, and make some free throws, we could be in for an upset tonight. However, I find it hard to believe that they can get a win losing on the boards by that much.</p>
https://www.bloggersodear.com/2014/1/5/5276938/game-thread-wake-forest-vs-north-carolinaJ.P. Mundy2014-01-05T14:09:33-05:002014-01-05T14:09:33-05:00Sunday Conversation: a chat with Tar Heel Blog
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<img alt="Coach Jeff Bzdelik" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5zaJvmPo4hpFKEggFfiEgfjQliM=/0x282:2693x2077/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/26310631/20131221_jcd_sv4_002.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Coach Jeff Bzdelik | Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Blogger So Dear chats with the editor of our SB Nation sister blog, Brian Barbour from Tar Heel Blog in advance of Sunday's tilt with the Heels at LJVM</p> <p class="MsoNormal">We are mere hours from tipping off the 2014 ACC basketball season in Winston-Salem, and of course the ACC honchos decided to start Wake off with their dear friends from Chapel Hill. In honor of the occasion, BSD took the time to chat with the estimable Brian Barbour from Tar Heel Blog. You can follow those guys here, if you’re into that sort of thing. Special thanks to Brian for taking the time to deal with us lesser beings.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>BSD: </b>Brian, thanks for taking the time to chat with Blogger So Dear as we get set to tip off the 2014 ACC basketball season on (gulp) prime time television. I was kind of hoping that the Deacs would put on a better show up at Xavier this past weekend, but road games.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Let's get right to it: North Carolina has been sort of an enigma thus far on the young season. It seems like if there was ever a case study for playing up (or down) to one's competition, the Tar Heels would be Exhibit A. It's a maddening scenario for ABCers, really. They can't even rejoice and gloat about the missteps against Belmont and UAB, since the Heels play lights out when the stage gets bigger.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">How do you explain this Jekyll-and-Hyde performance from the boys in blue?</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Barbour: </b>I wish there was a concrete answer as to why UNC is so up and down but there really isn't. I am tempted to make up one like they play poorly when the vending machines in the Dean Dome run out of Skittles so it's all a sugar crash or something.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">As for real reasons, plenty of theories. One the offense doesn't have enough consistent scoring or rebounding. Part of that is the free throw shooting which is bad and can be REALLY bad at times. Another part is the cold, hard truth that simply having big men doesn't necessarily mean said big men do all the big men things they are supposed to to. In this case the rebounding and rim protection should be better but it's not. </p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Effort and intensity are being cited as culprits for the lack of rebounding. P.J. Hairston driving rental cars around in the offseason is to be blamed for the lack of consistent scoring. Marcus Paige has been carrying most of the perimeter scoring load. Leslie McDonald's return helps in this respect. However James Michael McAdoo still has issues finishing at the rim and hitting free throws, Brice Johnson can score but has issues on the defensive end as does Kennedy Meeks but Meeks is still not conditioned or developed to be a consistent threat. </p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Oh and teams seem to be able to drive to the basket at will. Even those pesky mid-majors with their bands of Hobbits. </p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">So yeah, that Skittles theory sounds a lot simpler or blaming the coach is always fun. Speaking of blaming the coach, have Wake Forest fans reached a point where wins are good, losses are better because it puts you one step closer to Jeff Bzdelik being fired? </p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>BSD: </b>See, here's the thing: even most of the FireBz crowd won't even stoop that far. At the end of the day, they want to see them win, and especially want to see them kick Carolina's ass. That's just how it goes. Only the most jaded of the jaded will bemoan Wake victories. While there's not much Bz can do to win over the naysayers, people are pining for wins. Period.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Even if this Wake team wins 25 games and a berth in a Regional Final, people are going to say it was because of the players and Randolph Childress' work with the guards. But, at the end of the day people are ready to root for a Demon Deacon team that really isn't half bad. How good they can be is yet to be seen. I could be wrong.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">What I'm dreading about Sunday is watching two horrifically bad free throw-shooting teams compete during prime time. We might not get out of there until 1am. What do you suggest both teams do in that department? Because what they're currently doing isn't working.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Barbour: </b>Is Dawn Bunting available? She used to do some voodoo to help UNC football..oh wait.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">James Michael McAdoo got five straight questions on his free throw shooting. It veered off to the point he was getting questions about the technical aspects at which point he almost pulled an Allen Iverson and basically said, "I'm not getting into it, it's free throws." Roy Williams said they work on it as a normal part of practice and they keep records of the shooting. Williams also said the free throw shooting in practice is 70% or better across the board. Yet in games it doesn't bear out that way.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">As this point I think UNC has settled into a low to mid-60% free throw shooting team. The most important thing they can do is not have those REALLY bad games. Missing 23 or 26 free throws just cannot happen. The problem is UNC has a really high free throw rate. McAdoo is one of the best in the country in getting to the line but the shooting at the line is simply awful at times which is usually a bad combination.</p>
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<p class="MsoBodyText">I noticed that both UNC and Wake are pretty decent on the defensive end. Couple that with the free throw struggle does this shape up to be a classic Sunday night #goacc game?</p>
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<p class="MsoBodyText"><b>BSD:</b> I think there’s very little question of it being a classic #goacc opener in Winston-Salem. The rosters and stats say that Carolina should win in a rout, the arena will be more than half-filled with giddy Carolina fans (Walmart and non-Walmart variety), and Wake Forest is worse than UNC at the line. Obviously, that means that Wake will win a close one by shooting 92 percent from the stripe. </p>
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<p class="MsoBodyText">Prediction: Wake 69-67. What say you?</p>
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<p class="MsoBodyText"><b>Barbour:</b> Wake 65 UNC 59. Of course, the three times I thought UNC would lose they won, but that was against ranked teams.</p>
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https://www.bloggersodear.com/2014/1/5/5276910/sunday-conversation-a-chat-with-tar-heel-blogJ.P. Mundy2014-01-03T08:05:01-05:002014-01-03T08:05:01-05:00Preview: Wake Forest vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
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<figcaption>Grant Halverson</figcaption>
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<p>Wake Forest finished the non-conference portion of their schedule with a 10-3 record and are set to begin ACC play when they take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (10-3) on Sunday at 8 p.m. at The Joel. How do the in-state rivals compare?</p> <p>North Carolina has been perhaps the most enigmatic teams in all of college basketball this season. They have losses to Belmont and UAB, who are both ranked outside of the top 100 according to <a href="http://kenpom.com/" target="_blank">KenPom.</a> Meanwhile they've defeated three of KenPom's ten best teams in Louisville, Michigan State and Kentucky, with two of those coming away from the Dean Dome. Let's try and breakdown this team some more to try and get closer to solving the puzzle.</p>
<p>Each of the team previews will focus on Dean Oliver's <a href="http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/20040601_roboscout.htm" target="_blank">four factors</a> of basketball.</p>
<p><b>Effective Field Goal %</b></p>
<p>Offensively, both North Carolina and Wake Forest have similar similar eFG%'s at 50.3% and 49.8%, respectively. This can be attributed to North Carolina's lack of three point shooting. Outside of <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/177507/marcus-paige">Marcus Paige</a> and recent addition <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/99812/leslie-mcdonald">Leslie McDonald</a>, no one on the team has made more than four three pointers. In fact, North Carolina only has five scholarship players who has made a three pointer this season. They do have some very good inside players, which we'll get to in a bit, and because of that they have the fifth highest percentage in the nation of points coming from two point shots.</p>
<p>Defensively speaking, North Carolina is exceptional at forcing low percentage shots. They are 20th nationally in eFG% at 43.6% and Wake Forest is actually 24th at 43.8%. Again, I'll point out that those numbers are not adjusted for competition. A main reason North Carolina's defense is so good is that they have some very strong shot blockers in <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/145816/james-michael-mcadoo">James Michael McAdoo</a> and Brice Johnson. Those two could cause problems for <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/178425/devin-thomas">Devin Thomas</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/178427/tyler-cavanaugh">Tyler Cavanaugh</a> down low as well as when <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/178429/codi-miller-mcintyre">Codi Miller-McIntyre</a> looks to penetrate.</p>
<p><b>Turnover %</b></p>
<p>North Carolina turns the ball over on 17.3% of their possessions, while Wake Forest turns it over at a nearly identical rate of 17.2%. Primary ball handler Marcus Paige does a good job of maintaining possession, but freshman point guard <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/229073/nate-britt">Nate Britt</a> is very turnover prone. A similar comparison can be made for the Wake Forest back court because Codi Miller-McIntyre has an outstanding turnover% considering his usage rate, but <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/178431/madison-jones">Madison Jones</a> is exceptionally turnover prone.</p>
<p>When it comes to forcing turnovers, however, North Carolina is in a different class than Wake Forest. The Tar Heels force their opponents to turn it over on nearly 21% of their possessions, while the Demon Deacons force opponents to turn it over on fewer than one out of every six possessions. Similar ratios hold true for steals, which means the Tar Heels pick more pockets than Bernie Madoff and get into their fast and secondary breaks.</p>
<p><b>Offensive/Defensive Rebounding %</b></p>
<p>Both squads are strong rebounding teams and the rebounding battle could go a long way in determining the winner of this Tobacco Road contest. Carolina grabs 37.4% of offensive rebounding opportunities (36th nationally), while Wake Forest allows opponents to grab just more than one in four offensive rebounding opportunities (26.4%, 22nd nationally). Those numbers go a long way towards Carolina's offensive efficiency as well as Wake's defensive efficiency. I truly believe whichever team wins that facet of the game, will emerge victorious.</p>
<p>North Carolina is about average at defensive rebounding, while Wake Forest is above average at offensive rebounding, so this should be an advantage for the Demon Deacons. The Deacs will probably have a few of their shots blocked, so grabbing those lose balls is an important component of this as well.</p>
<p><b>Free Throw Rate</b></p>
<p>North Carolina is 21st nationally in free throw rate [insert Carolina Refs joke here], but they hit just 62.4% of them, which is awful but still somehow better than Wake Forest's percentage. James Michael McAdoo is North Carolina's best player at drawing fouls, but he has made just 57% of them. Still, even if McAdoo was fouled every time and made just 57% of his FT's that would still translate into 1.14 points per possession, which is above their current efficiency of 1.12 points per possession.</p>
<p>Wake Forest also has a strong free throw rate, but have made just 61.9% of them, which is the lowest percentage of any major conference team in the country. But again, that still translates to an offensive efficiency of 1.24 points per possession, which is far better than Wake's average. Getting to the foul line is a very positive thing.</p>
<p>If it comes to fouling at the end, Wake Forest could be in trouble because Marcus Paige is 94% free throw shooter this season.</p>
<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>
<p>I won't pretend to say that I know exactly what's going to happen in this game, because I truly would not be surprised by any result. Call me a homer or call me an idiot, but I'm actually going with the Deacs to win this one. This game is critically important to their season, because if they don't win this one, then it's very likely they'll fall to 0-3 to start the season because their upcoming games are on the road against Virginia and Pittsburgh. Something just tells me that <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/100768/coron-williams">Coron Williams</a> is going to hit several threes, Devin Thomas is going to be exceptional on the interior and Codi Miller-McIntyre will assert himself on the way to a Wake Forest win.</p>
<p>Prediction</p>
<p>North Carolina 71</p>
<p>Wake Forest 75</p>
<p>You can catch all of the action on ESPNU this Sunday at 8 p.m. and if you're in the area get on out to The Joel and <a target="_blank" href="https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTqso6E3NEOMH4z9Wxv7gd0yGePuCm1-1OzsPtov0BcqvnK2fcjZw">support the team</a>. As always, go Deacs!</p>
https://www.bloggersodear.com/2014/1/3/5268164/preview-wake-forest-vs-north-carolina-basketball-acc-roy-williams-marcus-paige-codi-miller-mcintyreRobert Reinhard