Yesterday we previewed the first part of Wake Forest’s 2017 schedule, which includes several winnable games to open up the season. Unfortunately I do not believe the same can be said of the second portion of the schedule. Let’s take a look at it:
Sat, Sep 30 - Florida State (O/U - 9.5)
Sat, Oct 7 - @ Clemson (O/U - 9.5)
Sat, Oct 21 - @ Georgia Tech (O/U - 6)
Sat, Oct 28 - Louisville (O/U - 9.5)
Sat, Nov 4 - @ Notre Dame (O/U 7.5)
For those keeping score at home, these five teams combined for a 46-20 record last year, with 8 of those losses attributed to the Fighting Irish. Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Louisville all won at least 9 games, with Clemson claiming the National Championship over Alabama.
Looking at the O/U, the bet would be 42 for this year in total wins for these five teams.
Needless to say, this is a brutal stretch of games that Wake Forest has to traverse throughout the month of October. Realistically here the key is to win at least one game and possibly steal a second. If the Deacs can go 2-3 then they should be in really good shape to return to a bowl game in 2017.
Let’s assign some odds to each of the games to see what we come up with. Once again, these aren’t based on point spreads, but rather my own speculation:
Florida State - 15%
@ Clemson - 5%
@ Georgia Tech - 30%
Louisville - 15%
@ Notre Dame - 15%
Just guesstimating at the percentages for each game puts Wake at about a .80 win expectancy out of the five games. That’s pretty tough sledding.
There is a pretty good chance that all five of these teams go to a bowl this year, and when you consider N.C. State and App State will very likely make a bowl game as well, it puts Wake’s total for the year around 7-8.
This isn’t meant to denigrate Wake at all, but this stretch probably holds up against any other schedule out there as far as the toughest five game stretch in college football this season.
The bottom line is that Wake likely needs to get one victory out of these five, and anything else is pure gravy.
Tomorrow we will look at the final three games of the season to see if Wake can go bowling again!