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ACC Tournament Seed Probabilities/Saturday Open Comment Thread

Come for the ACCT seeding charts, stay for the hot takes

NCAA Womens Basketball: ACC Conference Tournament - Florida State vs Notre Dame Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Update: 6:15 ET

Updated chart, now including Florida State’s win over Miami and Syracuse’s win over Georgia Tech:

There are two possibilities remaining for the 7 seed: Virginia and Virginia Tech. Virginia is the 7 if and only if Virginia Tech beats Wake AND North Carolina beats Duke. If either of those results go the other way, Virginia Tech is the 7.

Update: 4:10 ET

Updated charts, now including Louisville’s win over Notre Dame:

Louisville is now no longer a potential opponent for Wake on Wednesday.


Update: 1:55 ET

Here are the updated charts, accounting for Virginia’s win over Pittsburgh:

And Wake’s Wednesday opponent distribution:

As you can see, not too much changed. Kenpom had Virginia as an 89% favorite, so this result was largely already priced in. The percentages will change dramatically with this afternoon’s slate of games.

Note that this result does eliminate Syracuse from our list of potential opponents.


With so many bubble games to follow today, we thought it would be a good idea to have an open thread where we can all discuss the day’s happenings. You can find a full viewing guide for today’s action here, but we will also keep you updated in the comments thread below.

Additionally, because we always try to bring you information you can’t find anywhere else, we compiled an interesting chart below. Thanks to the incredible work of Patrick Stevens here, we were able to compile all of the ACC Tournament seeding scenarios into a spreadsheet tied to Kenpom probabilities.

Without further ado, here is where thing stand, prior to today’s games:

As you can see, only three seed lines are locked in:
1 = North Carolina
12 = Clemson
15 = Boston College

If Pittsburgh beats Virginia (11% chance, per Kenpom), they will be the 13. NC State will be the 14.

If Pittsburgh loses to Virginia (89% chance, per Kenpom), they will be the 14. NC State will be the 13.

Other than that, it gets messy quickly. As results change, we’ll post updated tables, so you always know where things stand.

Of course, the biggest focus here is on Wake Forest. If Wake wins, we will be the 10 seed. If Wake loses and Georgia Tech loses, Wake remains the 10 seed. Wake drops to the 11 seed if and only if Wake loses and Georgia Tech wins.

One of the most important questions we’ll be able to answer today is: who is Wake Forest likely to play on Wednesday of the ACC Tournament? Right now, it’s complicated. Here’s the distribution, again weighted by Kenpom odds:

Again, we’ll update this table throughout the day.

Here’s the schedule to get us started:

12:00 ESPN: #49 Indiana @ #67 Ohio State (57%)
12:00 ESPNU: #66 Illinois (59%) @ #136 Rutgers
12:00 (NA): #55 Providence (49%) @ #87 St. John’s
12:00 (NA): #293 Delaware vs. #58 UNC-Wilmington (93%) <— CAA Quarterfinal
1:00 ESPNews: #34 Texas Tech @ #35 Kansas State (63%)

We’ll be rooting for Indiana, Rutgers, St. John’s, UNC-Wilmington, and Texas Tech. We hope to see you in the comments for a great day of basketball. Go Deacs!