BSD Bubble Forecast: Friday

As Championship Week rolls on, we’re back with another edition of the BSD Bubble Forecast. Today should be an incredible day of college basketball, especially from a bubble standpoint.

Big Picture for Wake Forest

At times yesterday, it felt like every bubble game was going against Wake. In truth, things went about as expected. In the nine games I highlighted as most important, “our” teams went 5-4. Their Kenpom win expectancy was 5.73. So, slightly disappointing, but it shouldn’t have been too surprising. In most cases, yesterday’s results just put more pressure on today, which is arguably the biggest bubble day of the year.

Once the bulk of bubble resumes are complete, I’ll have a full breakdown of where we stand in comparison. For now, we focus on scoreboards. Here’s the recap and preview:

Thursday Bubble Recap

Bubble teams who were supposed to win, and won:

MTSU (vs. UTSA)
Georgia (vs. Tennessee)
Nevada (vs. Utah State)
Alabama (vs. Mississippi State)
Indiana (vs. Iowa)
Vanderbilt (vs. Texas A&M)

Bubble teams who were supposed to lose, and lost:

Illinois (vs. Michigan)
Iowa (vs. Indiana)
Providence (vs. Creighton)
USC (vs. UCLA)

Illinois was already on the outside looking in, currently included in 10/121 Matrix brackets. That number is only going to drop as this loss is incorporated, while other bubble teams scored big wins. It doesn’t help that they were beaten so decisively either.

The exact same holds true for Iowa, except starting from 24/121 brackets.

Providence and USC, on the other hand, had a little bit of breathing room. They each lost to quality opposition as well. Both are likely right with Wake, on the First Four bubble.

Bubble teams landing upset victories:

TCU (vs. Kansas)
Seton Hall (vs. Marquette)
California (vs. Utah)
Xavier (vs. Butler)
Kansas State (vs. Baylor)

Hopefully this section is shorter tomorrow.

Bubble teams suffering upset losses:

Marquette (vs. Seton Hall)
Utah (vs. California)

We will be closely watching where Marquette moves in the Matrix the next couple of days, but conventional wisdom seems to have concluded that they’d already done enough. I don’t expect them to drop out of the field.

Utah’s bubble is most certainly burst.

Friday Bubble Schedule

12:00 ESPN2: #191 East Carolina vs. #12 SMU (94%)
12:00 NBCSN: #85 Davidson vs. #34 Dayton (70%)
12:30 CBSSN: #196 UTEP vs. #51 MTSU (82%)
12:30 ESPN3: #195 Coastal Carolina vs. #69 UT-Arlington (79%)
1:00 SECN: #55 Georgia (18%) vs. #6 Kentucky

2:25 ESPN: #43 Michigan State (46%) vs. #33 Minnesota
2:30 NBCSN: #86 St. Bonaventure vs. #52 Rhode Island (65%)
3:25 SECN: #58 Alabama (37%) vs. #28 South Carolina

6:00 NBCSN: #113 George Mason vs. #50 VCU (72%)
6:30 FS1: #53 Seton Hall (16%) vs. #2 Villanova
6:30 BTN: #39 Indiana (36%) vs. #23 Wisconsin
7:00 ESPN2: #37 TCU (36%) vs. #22 Iowa State
7:00 ESPNU: #139 Tulsa vs. #19 Cincinnati (88%)
7:00 SECN: #36 Vanderbilt (31%) vs. #5 Florida

9:00 ESPN2: #31 Kansas State (26%) vs. #4 West Virginia
9:00 FS1: #42 Xavier (39%) vs. #27 Creighton
9:00 P12: #57 California (26%) vs. #16 Oregon
9:25 SECN: #78 Ole Miss (34%) vs. #41 Arkansas
9:30 ESPNU: #44 Houston (56%) @ #98 Connecticut
10:00 CBSSN: #100 Fresno State vs. #56 Nevada (66%)

Rooting guide in table form:

Let’s hope a lot more check marks get added to that table than Xs. I’ll post some updates in the comments throughout the day. It should be a great day of college basketball, enjoy and Go Deacs!