ACC Tournament Projections and Analysis

We're within two weeks of the start of the ACCT and while some things are becoming more clear (UNC closing in on top seed, bottom four spots relatively locked in) there are still a lot of critical games left in the last 10 days of the season.

With that in mind and with an eye towards what Wake likely needs to do in Brooklyn (make it to Thursday), I took a look at the current standings as well as the KenPom projections for Brooklyn. The first standings shows what the tournament matchups would be if the season ended today, while the second standings are what KenPom projects the tournament to look like.

Based on Current Standings:

1. UNC

2. FSU

3. Notre Dame

4. Louisville

5. Duke

6. Miami

7. Syracuse

8. UVA

9. Virginia Tech

10. Georgia Tech

11. Wake

12. Clemson

13. Pittsburgh

14. N.C. State

15. Boston College

I resolved all ties the way the ACC would do so. There's a four-way tie for 2nd right now between Louisville, Duke, FSU, and ND. FSU is 3-1 against teams in the tie; Louisville is 2-1; Notre Dame is 2-2; and Duke is 1-2. FSU still plays at Duke and Notre Dame still plays at Louisville. UVA and VPI split the season series but UVA wins the tiebreak by virtue of their win over Louisville (both teams lost to UNC and FSU).

KenPom Projections

1. UNC

2. FSU

3. Notre Dame

4. Louisville

5. Duke

6. Syracuse

7. Miami

8. Virginia Tech

9. Virginia

10. Wake Forest

11. Georgia Tech

12. Clemson

13. Pittsburgh

14. N.C. State

15. Boston College

BOLDED teams indicate difference from current standings

This one is a little bit tougher to sort out. FSU, ND, and Louisville are all projected to finish at 12-6. FSU and ND went 2-1 against others while Louisville went 1-1. Louisville still hosts Notre Dame. So Louisville would be the four seed. FSU and ND split the season series and both lost to UNC so the tiebreak would then depend on what happens in the ND/Louisville game. If ND beats Louisville then it's unlikely Louisville would even be in a three-way tie at 12-6 in the first place and if Louisville beats ND, then it would change the tiebreak. I took FSU as the two and ND as the three by virtue of FSU's KP rating which is better.

There is also a four way tie between Miami, Syracuse, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. Miami and Syracuse went 2-1 against the group but Syracuse beat Miami so the Orange would be the 6, Miami the 7. VPI went 2-2 so far against the group while Virginia went 1-3. Miami still plays at VPI so this is all subject to change as well, these four spots are IMO completely up for grabs.

The last tie is Wake and Tech are both projected to go 8-10 but Wake would have the tiebreak by virtue of our head to head win.

Taking these above scenarios, this would be the tournament bracket:

Bracket of Current Standings

8. Virginia v. 9. Virginia Tech. Winner gets 1. UNC

12. Clemson v. 13. Pittsburgh. Winner gets 5. Duke; Winner of that game gets 4. Louisville

10. Georgia Tech v. 15. Boston College. Winner gets 7. Syracuse; Winner of that game gets 2. FSU

11. Wake Forest v. 14. N.C. State. Winner gets 6. Miami; Winner of that game gets 3. Notre Dame

Bracket of KP Projections

8. Virginia Tech v. 9. Virginia. Winner gets 1. UNC

12. Clemson v. 13. Pittsburgh. Winner gets 5. Duke; Winner of that game gets 4. Louisville

10. Wake Forest v. 15. Boston College. Winner gets 7. Miami; Winner of that game gets 2. FSU

11. Georgia Tech v. 14. N.C. State. Winner gets 6. Syracuse; Winner of that game gets 3. Notre Dame

If I made any mistakes above, let me know and I'll do my best to fix them. I'll also update this every few days between now and the ACCT.