Bubble Forecasting: February 10

Welcome to the latest edition of the BSD Bubble Watch. For a refresher on what makes this bubble watch unique, click here. Now let’s dive in to what happened this week, from a kenpom and Bracket Matrix perspective.

Bubble teams who were supposed to win, and won:

Memphis (vs. Tulsa)
Rhode Island (@ Mass)
Dayton (@ St. Joseph’s)
Michigan (vs. Michigan State)
TCU (vs. Texas Tech)
Tennessee (vs. Ole Miss)
Ohio State (vs. Rutgers)
Houston (@ Tulane)
Seton Hall (vs. Providence)
Minnesota (vs. Iowa)
VCU (@ George Washington)
Miami (vs. Virginia Tech)
California (@ Arizona State)
MTSU (vs. Old Dominion)
Wichita State (vs. Missouri State)
Utah (vs. Washington State)

Bubble teams who were supposed to lose, and lost:

Kansas State (vs. Kansas)
Georgetown (@ Villanova)
Georgia (vs. Florida)
Wake Forest (@ Notre Dame)
Michigan State (@ Michigan)
Texas Tech (@ TCU)
Ole Miss (@ Tennessee)
NC State (@ Florida State)
Virginia Tech (@ Miami)
Indiana (vs. Purdue)

Bubble teams landing upset victories:

Alabama (@ South Carolina): The Tide followed their worst loss of the season with their best win of the season, keeping faint bubble hopes alive. Kenpom does like them to finish 4th in the SEC at 11-7. Also, I highly recommend you check out the win probability graph from this game.
Syracuse (@ Clemson): Orange stretched their win streak to five with a beautiful buzzer-beater by Tyus Battle. Now projected 11-7 in the ACC, which should overcome their non-conference mediocrity.
Vanderbilt (@ Arkansas): Commodores return to the bubble with this upset, but lots more work to do. Projected 8-10 in the SEC.

Bubble teams suffering upset losses:

Clemson (vs. Syracuse): The Orange’s incredible win is Clemson’s heart-breaking loss. Tigers have a tough path forward, despite their current inclusion in most brackets. Now projected 7-11 in the ACC.
Arkansas (vs. Vanderbilt): Ugly, decisive home loss has the Razorbacks reeling, and Mike Anderson’s seat temperature rising. Now projected 9-9 in SEC play after a 6-3 start.
Iowa State (@ Texas): Losing this coin flip game shouldn’t impact ISU too much; still an 8 in the matrix, and projected 10-8 in the B12.
Marquette (vs. Butler): Golden Eagles missed a good opportunity here, as they were actually a slight favorite to land a notable win. BEast record projection drops to 9-9
Oklahoma State (vs. Baylor): Same story as Marquette. B12 record projection drops to 8-10

As you can see, most of this week went #asexpected. Here’s my updated summary chart:

Wake continues to teeter right on the edge of the Big Dance, currently ranking as the 2nd team below the cut line. The good news is that there are quite a few teams in front of Wake that are set to face some adversity. Virginia Tech, TCU, Indiana, and Miami stand out for having particularly difficult schedules remaining, while Michigan State and Arkansas bear mentioning as their kenpom rank and projections indicate they are likely to struggle despite comparatively softer remaining slates.

Moreover, some of the teams behind Wake face a daunting road ahead as well: of their final seven games, Michigan plays five on the road, Texas Tech plays six currently in the kenpom top 28, and Vanderbilt plays each of the SEC’s four best teams. Of the teams behind Wake, the two that I am most concerned about are Tennessee and Rhode Island.

Overall, with Wake’s projection stagnant at 17-13 (8-10), I still believe we’re all on a collision course for a highly stressful Selection Sunday.

This Weekend

Friday:

7:00 ESPN2: #34 Dayton @ #45 Rhode Island (60%)

Only one game worth following tonight. Wake fans should root hard for the Flyers.

Saturday:

12:00 ESPN: #28 Kansas State (18%) @ #4 West Virginia
12:00 FOX: #35 Marquette @ #56 Georgetown (54%)
12:00 ESPNU: #38 Minnesota (68%) @ #129 Rutgers
12:00 CBSSN: #53 Seton Hall (51%) @ #88 St. John’s
12:00 ESPN3: #93 NC State @ #33 Wake Forest (83%)
1:00 CBS: #7 Kentucky @ #61 Alabama (25%)
1:00 ESPN3: #43 Clemson (19%) @ #14 Duke
1:00 ESPN3: #46 Syracuse (47%) @ #68 Pittsburgh
2:00 ESPN: #9 Kansas @ #41 Texas Tech (39%)
2:00 ESPN2: #40 Miami (13%) @ #3 Louisville
2:00 ESPNU: #32 TCU (18%) @ #8 Baylor

3:30 SECN: #51 Vanderbilt (72%) @ #182 Missouri
4:00 ESPN: #60 Ohio State (27%) @ #36 Maryland
4:00 ESPN2: #70 Texas @ #21 Oklahoma State (87%)
4:00 ESPNU: #52 Georgia @ #37 Tennessee (69%)
4:30 FS1: #158 Washington @ #49 Utah (88%)
5:30 ESPN3: #156 Boston College @ #80 Georgia Tech (80%)
6:00 ESPN2: #77 Oklahoma @ #26 Iowa State (84%)
6:00 BTN: #72 Iowa @ #58 Michigan State (70%)
6:00 ESPNU: #39 Houston (65%) @ #123 Tulsa
6:00 (NA): #231 Charlotte @ #50 MTSU (94%)

8:00 CBSSN: #86 Davidson @ #48 VCU (77%)
8:30 SECN: #59 Arkansas (66%) @ #164 LSU
10:00 ESPN2: #47 California (23%) @ #22 Arizona
10:00 ESPNU: #251 Bradley @ #44 Illinois State (95%)

Obviously a massive day of bubble action. In the ACC, root for Boston College (despite #TheRivalry), Louisville (despite #WakeyLeaks), Duke (despite being Duke), and Pittsburgh (no issues here). Around the country, some of the more meaningful and realistic upset possibilities are LSU, Iowa, Tulsa, and St. John’s. On the flip side, root for teams like Maryland, Arizona, Kentucky, and the Big 12’s big 3 (West Virginia, Kansas and Baylor) to hold serve.

Sunday:

1:00 CBS: #30 Michigan @ #42 Indiana (60%)
2:00 CBSSN: #109 Temple @ #78 Memphis (71%)
4:00 (NA): #17 Wichita State (74%) @ #99 Loyola-Chicago
6:30 ESPNU: #2 Virginia @ #54 Virginia Tech (25%)

The week closes with a relatively quiet day of bubble action. Wake fans should of course root for the Hokies to lose, and an upset by Temple or Loyola-Chicago would be a nice bonus. The B1G bubble game should be entertaining, but is really a zero-sum proposition.

Enjoy the games this weekend, and I’ll be back on Monday with another installment. Go Deacs!