Wake Forest had its bye week this past Saturday, and will now play every week for the remainder of the season. Despite the bye week, Wake Forest still moved up 4 spots to 59th overall in the latest S&P+ ratings. With five regular season games remaining, how does Wake match up against future opponents?
Wake Forest will host Army this week, who has been a bit of a mystery team. Army is 4-3 and has a nice win over Temple, as well as a blowout win over UTEP, but lost to Buffalo, and just lost to North Texas at home by 17 points despite being 17-point favorites. The Black Knights run the triple-option, and Wake Forest is very good against the run. Army dropped 9 spots in the latest S&P+ ratings, and is currently 75th. Wake will be about a 6.5-point favorite based on these ratings, and that spread translates to a win probability of 67.7%.
The Deacs will then host Virginia, who has struggled all season. The Cavaliers lost their season opener to Richmond, and just lost to UNC by 21 points at home. They are down to 80th in the S&P+ ratings, and the point spread is expected to be about 9.5 points, which translates to a win probability of 75.5% for Wake.
Our beloved Demon Deacons will then travel to Kentucky to take on the Louisville Cardinals who completely embarrassed NC State on Saturday. Louisville, thanks to Lamar Jackson’s weekly heroics, is now the 2nd best team in the country according to S&P+. They will be approximately a 4 touchdown+ favorite, and that’s basically a guaranteed win. I don’t look forward to watching that one, and I would advise you all to enjoy your Saturday doing something else.
Wake will then return home to take on the Clemson Tigers, who is 4th in the latest rankings. Clemson will be approximately a 21-point favorite, but they’ve been lackluster in several performances this season. I certainly don’t expect Wake to win, but they can make it interesting for some time.
The Deacs will conclude the regular season schedule by hosting Boston College on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Several weeks ago, despite BC’s dreadful losing streak in ACC play, the statistics were saying this would be a toss up. Now, Boston College is in free fall, and Wake is expected to be a a 7.5 point favorite, which translates to a win probability of 73%.
Overall, that translates to two games where Wake will be prohibitive underdogs, and three games where Wake will be solid favorites. Several weeks ago it was looking like three toss ups, and two games being prohibitive dogs, so this is a very positive development. Wake sits at 5-2, and has an excellent chance to finish the regular season at 8-4, which would be Wake’s best regular season record since 2008. Wake should earn bowl eligibility this week with a win over Army, but then it’s time to get greedy.