Wake Forest Baseball: How Can the Deacs Make the ACC Tournament?

The final weekend of the ACC baseball regular season is here, and that means the ACC Tournament is right around the corner. The ten-team tournament begins on Tuesday. Wake Forest is still alive, but has work to do. What does Wake need to do get in? I did my best to break down the scenarios.

Current Standings

Upcoming Series

Louisville at North Carolina State

Miami vs. Georgia Tech

Florida State vs. Clemson

Notre Dame at Boston College

North Carolina vs. Virginia

Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh

Wake Forest at Duke

Already Eliminated

- Pittsburgh. They were eliminated prior to last night's win over Virginia Tech.

- Duke. They were eliminated prior to last night's loss to Wake Forest.

- Boston College. They were eliminated after their loss to Notre Dame.

Scenarios

There are 14 games remaining, so at this point I'm not going calculate every possibility, but I will look at some realistic scenarios in which Wake can get in.

TIE-BREAKERS

Please note that Wake Forest needs at least one team to lose at least one time, in order for the Deacs to make the tournament. By my understanding, there are no scenarios in which Wake Forest "controls its own destiny."

Versus Clemson & North Carolina State

Wake Forest cannot pass either team.

Versus North Carolina

Wake Forest can only pass them if they get swept by Virginia, and Wake sweeps Duke. The two teams cannot tie due to Carolina having a conference game rained out.

Versus Virginia Tech

Wake took care of business last night and beat Duke.  That's a very good thing, because our chances would have been horrific had we lost. They currently sit in 11th place, and are a half-game behind Virginia Tech. The unfortunate thing about Virginia Tech is, although Wake won the series, Virginia Tech will only end up playing 29 conference games. This means, if both win out, Virginia Tech would get in over Wake Forest due to having a better winning percentage. If Virginia Tech loses one more game to Pittsburgh (probably not that likely), then Wake Forest will make the Tournament if the Deacs win out.

Versus Virginia

Virginia currently has a one-game lead on Wake Forest, and also owns the tie-breaker due to winning their series against Miami. If Virginia wins one of their remaining two games against North Carolina, then Wake Forest cannot pass them.

Versus Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech currently sits in 8th place and has a 13-15 record, which puts them one game ahead of Wake Forest. The Yellow Jackets play Miami this weekend, which could go a long way in determining the tiebreaker between these two teams. If Georgia Tech gets swept, and finishes with 13 wins, then Wake just needs to split their remaining games with Duke to make the Tournament. This because Wake took one of three games against Miami earlier in the season, and they are the highest common opponent who would make a difference in a tiebreaker (both GT and Wake were swept by Louisville). If Wake Forest and Georgia Tech both finish at 14 wins, then it will depend on whether Boston College or Pittsburgh finishes higher in the standings. If it's BC, then Wake advances. If it's Pitt, then GT advances.

This is essentially the same as a three-way tiebreaker between Wake, UVA, and Georgia Tech. UVA would advance by virtue of beating Miami 2 out of 3, then it will come down to standard Wake-GT tiebreakers.

Les Johns of Deacons Illustrated helped me clarify this.

If Wake Forest misses the ACC Tournament, it will be the third time in Tom Walter's six years at the helm. Wake Forest has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2007.