Assessing Wake Forest's Chances in the ACC Tournament

The ACC Tournament bracket is officially set, and the #11 seed Wake Forest Demon Deacons are set to play the #14 seed Virginia Tech Hokies on Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. in the Greensboro Coliseum. Now that the bracket is set, basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy has released his log5. This output gives the odds of each team in a given tournament advancing to a certain round and also winning a certain round. It takes into account all possible scenarios, so for example Duke's odds of winning its quarterfinals matchup are different based on whether they are facing N.C. State or Pittsburgh. This arithmetic takes the probability of each team advancing to face Duke, and Duke's odds of winning each respective game into account. Now that that's out of the way, what do the numbers say about our Demon Deacons?

Spoiler alert: obligatory Dumb & Dumber reference.

Odds of Beating Virginia Tech: 72.6%

Mr. Pomeroy gives the Deacs about a 3 in 4 chance of beating the Hokies in the first round. Wake Forest should dominate the glass in this one. The biggest threat that the Hokies have is that they shoot 39.3% from deep, which is 18th in the nation. Wake fans are disgruntled by their past two performances, and I certainly agree with them, but Tech has lost its last seven performances. On Saturday they lost by 21 at home to Miami and last Monday they lost to Boston College at home by seven.

Odds of Beating Miami: 37% (27% if you factor in them having to get to this game first)

Miami is set to host the winner of Wake's game on Wednesday night around 9:30. If Wake advances to that game, then Ken Pom gives the Deacs about a 37% chance to beat the Hurricanes. Wake would essentially have a home court advantage in this one, Miami is playing for its NCAA Tournament lives, however, while Wake Forest has nothing tangible to play for. The Deacs beat Miami earlier on in the season, but motivation could be significant in this one.

Odds of Beating Notre Dame 19.6% (5.3% if you factor in having to get to this game first)

I could go #FactsOnly in this paragraph and mention that Wake Forest has never lost to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament and therefore we should win, but I know our readers are much smarter than that. Three weeks ago, Wake Forest traveled to South Bend and lost 88-75. I maintain that Notre Dame's 4-out offense is a bad matchup for Wake Forest on the defensive end, but this set of players did allow Devin Thomas to finish with 26 points and 11 rebounds. Last year there was a vocal contingency of Wake Forest support in their game against Notre Dame, and that was despite the coaching situation. If Wake Forest makes the quarterfinals against Notre Dame, then you can bet Wake will have a lot of fan support.

Odds of Reaching the Finals: 0.6%

If Wake Forest manages to sneak by Notre Dame, then they will have the honor of playing either Duke, North Carolina State or Pittsburgh. Let's beat real, they'll probably be playing the Blue Devils. To be more real, it's highly unlikely Wake will even play in this game, though they do have a 5.3% chance. Of course Wake supposedly had a 6.1% chance to win at Cameron last Wednesday and we all know how that one turned out.

Odds of Winning the Tournament: .07%

That's .07%, not 7 percent, not even 7/10th's of a percent, so not good. The good news is that Duke would already be eliminated at this point. The bad news is that Wake would probably be playing either Virginia, Louisville or North Carolina. But hey, maybe Boston College will continue this winning streak and we'll have a classic #rivalry game in the ACC Final?!? Wake is currently +50,000 (500/1) according to Vegas.

Editor's Note: As a commenter correctly points out below, 500:1 is actually .2%, meaning the odds are BETTER than the .07%. Go on.