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Wake Forest Individual Plus/Minus Ratings (Through Rutgers)

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BSD takes a look at individual plus/minus ratings through the Rutgers game.

Jim O'Connor-USA TODAY Sports

In an effort to gain a sense of how the team plays when a certain individual is in the game, I have broken down the plus/minus of each player and put it into an easy to read spreadsheet.

All plus/minus numbers have been taken directly from SCACCHoops and there wasn't one for the Wake Forest-Bucknell game, and therefore I don't have that data. It's a bit unfortunate that one of our wins is taken out, because as you can see below, they aren't all that pretty to look at.

UMBC Bucknell Richmond Indiana Vanderbilt UCLA Rutgers Total +/- Average
Rondale Watson DNP DNP DNP DNP 6 5 11 5.5
John Collins 9 -5 -6 2 -8 16 8 1.3
Devin Thomas -2 -14 18 -17 6 -2 -9 -1.5
Doral Moore -6 -2 -1 -9 8 -1 -11 -1.83
Grant O'Brien -7 3 DNP -2 DNP DNP -6 -2
Cornelius Hudson DNP DNP DNP DNP -10 4 -6 -3
Bryant Crawford 4 -13 8 -20 DNP 2 -19 -3.8
Mitchell Wilbekin 6 -12 5 -20 -1 -4 -26 -4.3
Trent VanHorn -1 -14 -2 -15 -5 11 -26 -4.3
Dinos Mitoglou 3 -9 -3 -26 -5 -15 -55 -9.2
Greg McClinton -4 -14 -4 -23 -6 -6 -57 -9.5


The perhaps overly simplistic, but primary reason that most players are in the negative is that when Wake Forest wins they have usually won close games, and when they lose, they lose by a lot.

The five wins have come by a total of 21 points (slightly over 4 points per win), and the two losses to Richmond and Vanderbilt came by 31 points (15.5 points per loss). When you throw in the fact that the Bucknell win isn't counted in the +/- ratings, it brings the four wins down to 12 total points.

Just as we guessed, Rondale Watson is the best player on the team! All joking aside, this is a product of situational sample size, and that will likely be smoothed out as the year goes along. He was in a couple of the top producing lineups against both UCLA and Rutgers where runs were made.

If we take a look at another table below, one that looks at defensive rating (an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions), it almost exactly mirrors what we are looking at in the chart above.

Chart taken from SportsReference.com

O-Rating D-Rating
John Collins 120.5 101.2
Rondale Watson 106 103
Doral Moore 63.4 103.1
Devin Thomas 114.2 103.3
Konstantinos Mitoglou 113.6 107.1
Cornelius Hudson 88.2 108.6
Bryant Crawford 95.5 110.3
Greg McClinton 101.1 111.3
Trent VanHorn 101.2 114.2
Grant O'Brien 114.5
Mitchell Wilbekin 120.9 116.1

There is a good article here explaining how offensive and defensive ratings are determined. While it is not a perfect assessment by any means, it gives a good snapshot of how a player is performing on both ends of the court. As the article states, offensive rating should be viewed in conjunction with usage rate (how often a play ends with a certain player either: making a shot, missing a shot, or committing a turnover).

The players that play the worst defense on the team rank extremely far down on the +/- list. At this point it is just whether or not the offensive play of that individual outweighs the defensive liability they are on the defensive side of things.

Most people tend to only assess a player based on what they can do on the offensive end. Mitoglou and Wilbekin are both solid offensive contributors, but struggle on the defensive end. McClinton honestly struggles on both, but immensely defensively.

Mitoglou actually ranks a little higher in terms of defensive efficiency than I thought he would, although frankly speaking, none of these numbers are very good.

I will update these numbers intermittently as the year goes on to provide better context in ratings and plus/minus. It is a good way to get a feel outside of raw numbers as to how a player is performing on both ends of the court.

If there are any questions about this data let me know and I will do my best to explain!