BSD Bracketology: Week One Update (New Overall No. 1)

The season is underway and most teams played a couple of games over the weekend. There were some upsets by name and rank, and there were some upsets in name only (where the "underdog" actually had a much better chance than just looking at the two teams and claiming that the better known team should have won).

I could have waited until later in the week, but this is ideally a Monday article that will look at the prior week and weekend games to assess how a team is doing on a week-by-week basis, so the sample size is small with this one.

Most of the top teams at the top of the bracket won, so there wasn't a lot of shuffling around. Notably, I went ahead and moved UK to No. 1 overall, and also put Duke to No. 2 over UNC. Certainly debatable, but I'm going to try to judge each team on body of work, combined with overall projection/team talent. As the year goes on I will use more body of work, phasing out the "expectations" proponent of the ranking system.

There were some notable jumps including: Valparaiso (destroyed Iona) Cincinnati & Vanderbilt (looked really, really good against inferior opponents), and Butler (beat Citadel by 73, while setting school records all over the place.

Wisconsin, UCLA, N.C. State, Boise State, Georgetown, and Texas all suffered losses that moved them down in the rankings for this week.

There are a few new teams that got in, but only two were bubble teams (the others were lower conferences with one-bids that had a team move to first in KenPom). Syracuse replaced Rhode Island (who lost E.C. Matthews for the season with a knee injury), and VCU replaced Boise State (lost to Montana, currently a 16 seed in this week's update).

Rhode Island was moved out, but are still ranked as the No. 1 team in the A-10. I want to wait and see how they respond to this injury before moving them back in. VCU jumped Davidson and now has the automatic A-10 bid, although I think Davidson is a better team overall. VCU, Davidson, Dayton, and perhaps Rhode Island will make the A-10 an interesting league this season.

Bracketology S-Curve

1. Kentucky (SEC)

2. Duke (ACC)

3. North Carolina (ACC)

4. Maryland (Big Ten)

5. Virginia

6. Kansas (Big 12)

7. Michigan State

8. Villanova (Big East)

9. Oklahoma

10. Wichita State (MVC)

11. Connecticut (American)

12. California (Pac-12)

13. Gonzaga (WCC)

14. Indiana

15. Arizona

16. Iowa State

17. Baylor

18. Cincinnati

19. Notre Dame

20. Vanderbilt

21. Michigan

22. Utah

23. Miami (FL)

24. Purdue

25. Oregon

26. Butler

27. LSU

28. Xavier

29. Florida State

30. Louisville

31. Iowa

32. Texas

33. Texas A&M

34. Valparaiso (Horizon) 35

35. Wisconsin

36. Ohio State

37. Georgetown

38. UCLA

39. San Diego State (MW) 40

40. Davidson

41. UNLV

42. West Virginia

43. Providence

44. Tulsa

45. VCU (A-10) 50

46. Dayton

47. N.C. State

48. Syracuse

49. Akron (MAC) 64

50. Princeton (Ivy) 70

51. Stephen F Austin (Southland) 72

52. UAB (C-USA) 76

53. North Dakota State (Summit) 81

54. William and Mary (CAA) 82

55. Belmont (OVC) 83

56. Iona (MAAC) 84

57. Stony Brook (America East) 86

58. Cal Poly (Big West) 97

59. North Florida (A-Sun) 103

60. Louisiana Lafayette (Sun Belt) 104

61. Chattanooga (Southern) 111

62. Lehigh (Patriot) 122

63. Montana (Big Sky) 137

64. High Point (Big South) 146

65. New Mexico State (WAC) 150

66. Mount St. Mary’s (NEC) 191

67. Norfolk State (MEAC) 226

68. Jackson State (SWAC) 267

Seeding

1-Seeds- Kentucky, Duke, UNC, Maryland

2-seeds- Virginia, Kansas, Michigan State, Villanova

3-seeds- Oklahoma, Wichita State, Connecticut, California

4-seeds- Gonzaga, Indiana, Arizona, Iowa State

5-seeds- Baylor, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt

6-seeds- Michigan, Utah, Miami, Purdue,

7-seeds- Oregon, Butler, LSU, Xavier

8-seeds- Florida State, Louisville, Iowa, Texas,

9-seeds- Texas A&M, Valparaiso, Wisconsin, Ohio State

10-seeds- Georgetown, UCLA, San Diego State, Davidson

11-seeds- UNLV, West Virginia, Providence, Tulsa

12-seeds- VCU, Dayton, N.C. State, Syracuse, Akron, Princeton

13-seeds- Stephen F. Austin, UAB, North Dakota State, William and Mary,

14-seeds- Belmont, Iona, Stony Brook, Cal Poly

15-seeds- North Florida, Louisiana Lafayette, Chattanooga, Lehigh,

16-seeds- Montana, High Point, New Mexico State, Mount St. Mary’s, Norfolk State, Jackson State

Last Four In: Tulsa, Dayton, N.C. State, Syracuse

Last Four Out BYU, Boise State, Rhode Island, Pittsburgh

Breakdown By Conference

ACC (9): Duke, UNC, Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Florida State, Louisville, N.C. State, Syracuse

Big 10 (8): Maryland, Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, West Virginia

Big East (5): Villanova, Butler, Xavier, Georgetown, Providence

Pac-12 (5): California, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, UCLA

SEC (4): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, LSU, Texas A&M

Atlantic 10 (3): Davidson, VCU, Dayton

American (3): Connecticut, Cincinnati, Tulsa,

Mountain West (2): San Diego State, UNLV

One Bid Leagues (23): Wichita State (MVC), Gonzaga (WCC), Valparaiso (Horizon), SF Austin (Southland), Akron (MAC), UAB (C-USA), Princeton (Ivy), Iona (MAAC), NDSU (Summit), Stony Brook (America East), Cal Poly (Big West), William and Mary (CAA), Belmont (OVC), UL-Lafayette (Sun Belt), North Florida (A-Sun), Lehigh (Patriot), Chattanooga (Southern), High Point (Big South), NMSU (WAC), Montana (Big Sky) Mount Saint Mary’s (NEC), Norfolk State (MEAC), Jackson State (SWAC)

In: Syracuse, VCU, Jackson State, Norfolk State, High Point, William and Mary, Cal Poly

Out: Rhode Island, Boise State, Texas Southern, NC Central, Coastal Carolina, Hofstra, Hawai’i