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The Manning Way: Offense by the Numbers

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A statistical analysis of Danny Manning's offensive numbers while at Tulsa. Are Manning's offensive tendencies a strong fit with the current roster?

Dave Weaver-USA TODAY Sports

Now that Danny Manning is set to man the reins of the basketball program, we will take a look his teams' offensive numbers over the past two seasons. In just two years as a head coach, Manning was able to take Tulsa to the big dance for the first time since 2003. However, the most impressive part of Manning's accomplishments is that he did so with such a young team, being 303th and 295th in experience.

Offensive Rating and Four Factors

Category 2012-13 2013-14
Offensive Efficiency 97.9 (223rd) 104.7 (169th)
eFG% 48.6 (168th) 49.2 (188th)
Turnover% 21.7% (268th) 16.8% (69th)
Offensive Rebound% 30.3% (225th) 30.2% (219th)
Free Throw Rate 43.6% (24th) 47.1% (40th)

Danny Manning's teams have shown some improvement over his two years in a few offensive categories. However, many of the categories are near or below the D1 average, with the exception of free throw rate and turnover percentage. Manning's teams were among the best in the nation at getting to the charity stripe, which should bode well with the current roster as the Deacs were 1st in the ACC and 20th nationally. I am also very impressed with the huge drop in turnovers from 2013 to 2014. I believe this shows how quickly Manning's teams matured from their first season, when the majority of ball handlers were freshmen, to one of the nation best in year two.

Shooting and Assist Percentages

Category 2012-13 2013-14
2P% 48.2% (149th) 49.2% (140th)
3P% 32.9% (217th) 32.7% (244th)
FT% 66.4% (270th) 67.7% (259th)
3PA% 33.8% (153rd) 31.8% (201st)
A% 50.2% (254th) 51.1% (178th)

Well, this will need to be a spot of growth as Manning's teams did not shot very well over his 2 years at Tulsa. Though, it is clear that Tulsa's roster was built around the inside game and the lack of experience may have played a factor in a pedestrian free throw percentage. It is also important to note that Tulsa lacked in proficient 3-point shooters, as James Woodard was the only real threat from deep.

Style and Point Distribution Percentage

Category 2012-13 2013-14
3PA/FGA 33.8% (153rd) 31.8% (201st)
A/FGM 50.2% (254th) 51.1% (178th)
3-Pointers 26.5% (206th) 23.9% (241st)
2-Pointers 50.6% (215th) 51.6% (163rd)
Free Throws 22.9% (49th) 24.4% (60th)

As far as style is concerned, Manning's Tulsa teams hovered around the median of D1 hoops. It appears that his teams are well rounded and can score in a variety of ways. The bright spot is the teams' high levels of scoring from free throws. This is a result of a high free throw rate, but these numbers could easily improve as Tulsa did not shoot very well from the line.

Tempo and Average Possession Length

Throughout Manning's two season at Tulsa his teams were known for their ability to get out and run in transition. The Golden Hurricane offense played at a fairly high tempo and in a conference whose average tempo was among the fastest of the college basketball conferences. In 2013, Tulsa's average offensive possession was 16.9 seconds, which was the 38th shortest average possession in college basketball. Manning's tempo slowed down a bit in his second season but was still inside the top 75 in average possession length.

These number are very telling but should be taken in with a grain of salt, as Manning's Tulsa teams were very young and inexperienced. That situation is vastly different than the situation Coach Manning enters at Wake Forest, as the Deacs will be among the most experienced teams in the ACC next season. I also expect a smooth transition on offense, as Wakes tempo and style of play is very consistent with that of Manning's previous teams.