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BSD Staff Predictions - Basketball

The staff here at Blogger So Dear has been making predictions for each basketball game and I have dutifully compiled them in a spreadsheet. This should have gone up a while ago, but I've been super busy. Enjoy seeing how our prognostications have failed!

Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

With the exception of a couple missed predictions here or there every writer has submitted their picks before every game as to what they think the margin will be. Additionally I have given a composite BSD pick, which is the average of the scores for both teams and have provided Ken Pomeroy's projection for the game. To the surprise of nobody, KenPom is currently doing better than anyone. He is off to an 18-1 start with the lone miss having UNC over Wake in the ACC opener.

Our very own Rob Reinhard is tied with KenPom at 18-1 but loses the tiebreaker of margin of points. For points margin I take how much each person missed the score by each game and compile it. For instance if I picked Wake to beat Virginia Tech 90-80 and they really won 83-77, then I would be 1-0 with 10 points (missed Wake's score by seven and Virginia Tech's by three). Note that it is not the total number of points off which can be reached by adding together the actual score and then predicted score and comparing, it is how much each person missed each individual team's total.

Without further ado here are the standings and afterwards I'll take a look at what each person has missed so far. The scoring margin is the tiebreaker and I have divided the total margin by number of games picked since not everyone has picked every single game.

1. Ken Pomeroy 18-1, missing each game by an average of 17.1 points

2. Rob Reinhard 18-1, missing each game by an average of 18.2 points

3. J.P Mundy 16-1, missing each game by an average of 21.4 points

4. Blogger So Dear Composite 17-2, missing each game by an average of 17.6 points

5. Samurai 17-2, missing each game by an average of 19.7 points

6. Bart Johnston 16-3, missing each game by an average of 17.1 points

7. SFernandez 16-3, missing each game by an average of 19 points

8. WakeJake 16-3, missing each game by an average of 19.8 points

9. Riley Johnston 16-3, missing each game by an average of 20.1 points

10. GKurzius 8-3, missing each game by an average of 20.2 points

The hottest picker in the group right now has to be Mr. Reinhard who has missed only one game, and it came when he unfortunately took Wake to beat Tennessee. That loss doesn't sting as much for him in the general scheme of the pick'em though as the BSD crew actually had Wake as a one-point favorite. Of course Wake lost by 19 so we all looked pretty foolish (except for Jake, Mundy, and KenPom who had Tennessee).

KenPom has been the most consistent picker and his only loss, as mentioned above, was having UNC as a three point favorite over Wake. The Deacs prevailed at home, as they have in every single home contest, and Pomeroy was left licking his wounds. KenPom and myself have both missed the first 19 games by a total of 325 points, tied for the lowest margin through the first 19 games.

With Mundy having missed a couple of picks (the Virginia Tech and Virginia games - he obviously has something against the Commonwealth), he will need KenPom and Rob to miss a couple coming home to bring himself back into it. Let's take a look at the games people have missed and with what frequency:

Southern California (1) - Riley took USC to win

Tennessee (6) - Bart, Riley, Rob, SFernandez, Samurai, BSD Crew all took Wake to win

Richmond (3) - Bart, Jake, and Mundy all took Richmond to win. This is Mundy's only miss.

Xavier (1) - Griffin took Wake to win

North Carolina (6) - Bart, SFernandez, Samurai, Griffin, BSD Crew, and KenPom all took UNC to win

Virginia (1) - Riley took UVA to win

N.C. State (1) - Jake took State to win

Virginia Tech (3) - Jake, SFernandez, Griffin all took Virginia Tech to win

Overall the group is 158-22 (.877) but clearly this number is aided by the fact that nobody missed a pick until the Tennessee game in the Atlantis tournament. In ACC play the group sits at 34-11 (.755), which of course is also aided by the fact that we have almost all gotten points for picking Wake to fail miserably on the road.

Oddly enough nobody has gotten a score exactly right yet, however both WakeJake and myself have missed a game by one single point. Jake took Wake to beat UNC 73-68 and the Deacs won 73-67, while I picked Wake to win 71-69 over State and Wake won 70-69 (with Codi missing a free throw in the waning seconds for an exactly correct pick). The worst pick so far by margin has lasted for quite a while and may not be bested this year. Mundy picked Wake to beat Colgate 68-41 and the Deacs won 89-78, for a spread of 58 points.

So who has consistently done the best and the worst on a weekly basis? Well let's take a look. For each game I noted who had the best pick and who had the worst pick (all ties are included). If you picked the wrong team to win, your pick was automatically worse than anybody who picked the right team to win even if the margins were considerably different.

KenPom: 1 best pick (Jacksonville), 0 worst picks

Rob: 3 best picks (VMI, Tulane, Richmond), 0 worst picks

Mundy: 3 best picks (USC, Tennessee, UNCG), 5 worst picks (Colgate, VMI, Presbyterian, Xavier, Pittsburgh)

BSD Composite: 0 best, 0 worst (obviously, since it's an average of other people's picks)

Samurai: 3 best picks (Colgate, Presbyterian, Virginia Tech), 4 worst picks (Kansas, St. Bonnie, UNCG, Clemson)

Bart: 2 best picks (The Citadel, N.C. State), 1 worst pick (Richmond)

Shayn: 2 best picks (Kansas, Clemson), 2 worst picks (VMI, The Citadel)

WakeJake: 3 best picks (Xavier, UNC, UVA), 3 worst picks (Tulane, N.C. State, Virginia Tech)

Riley: 3 best picks (Colgate, The Citadel, St. Bonnie), 3 worst picks (USC, Tennessee, Virginia)

Griffin: 2 best picks (Richmond, Pittsburgh), 2 worst picks (Jacksonville, North Carolina)

Note that the Colgate, the Citadel, and Richmond games all had ties.

I'll update this weekly and provide the upcoming picks for games. When the Notre Dame picks come in from the rest of the crew I'll toss them up as an edit for this post. If you guys have any questions or concerns please let me know, and as always Go Deacs!

Notre Dame Picks:

Bart Wake 73-68
Riley Wake 72-70
Rob Wake 70-65
Jake Wake 80-77
Mundy ND 70-67
Shayn Wake 73-71
Samurai Wake 78-68
Griffin Wake 74-66