In this post I will break down what I believe to be the best first round matchup. It is quite odd that what could be considered the best first round matchup is actually a 4-13 game. In my opinion the committee fudged up Belmont's seeding. If the committee had used KenPom, they would know that Wisconsin is #9 (so they are underseeded), and Belmont is #18 (as a 13 seed, they are VASTLY underseeded).
This will come as no surprise to anybody who has talked to me this week, but Belmont is my sleeper pick. I absolutely hate their draw though. If they do manage to top Bo Ryan's club, they will likely face Utah State (another vastly underrated team) in the Round of 32. I like Utah State in that matchup, so that would essentially end the Bruins "Cinderella" run early.
Let's take a look at the Belmont-Wisconsin breakdown though
Click through for a statistical look at this critical first round matchup.
Belmont (30-4, Atlantic Sun regular season and tournament champions)
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Category Offense Defense D-I Avg Adj. Efficiency 112.6 32 90.7 19 101.4 Adj. Tempo 69.1 57 66.7 Four Factors Effective FG%: 54.4 9 45.6 35 49.0 Turnover %: 20.0 163 27.6 2 20.2 Off. Reb. %: 37.9 14 32.5 192 32.3 FTA/FGA: 38.0 163 45.9 304 37.9 Miscellaneous Components 3P%: 38.1 30 32.8 78 34.4 2P%: 52.4 15 44.1 35 47.7 FT%: 73.6 48 67.5 82 69.2 Block%: 13.2 343 9.8 125 9.2 Steal%: 9.9 231 13.9 2 9.4 Style Components 3PA/FGA: 42.2 18 30.3 95 32.9 A/FGM: 59.5 55 53.2 152 53.7 Defensive Fingerprint: Mostly Man Point Distribution (% of total points) 3-Pointers: 35.2 23 24.4 273 27.3 2-Pointers: 44.3 329 50.3 221 51.6 Free Throws: 20.5 220 25.3 24 21.1 Strength of Schedule Components: 98.2 304 103.6 254 101.4 Overall: .3487 290 .5000 Non-conference: .5136 153 .5000 Personnel Bench Minutes: 44.5% 4 30.7% Experience: 1.59 yrs 223 1.73 Effective Height: +0.5 143 0.0 Average Height: 77.0" 100 76.5"
- Belmont relied on an extremely efficient and balanced offense to cruise their way to a 30-4 record this season. Their only losses came to Tennessee (x2), Vanderbilt, and Lipscomb. A knock on them is that they do not have any impressive wins. They played the 290th toughest schedule in the country (55th easiest), and lost their only "big games" of the year. It will be interesting to see how they come out against Wisconsin on Thursday night.
GAME STATISTICS | |||||||||||
Player | GP | MIN | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TPG | FG% | FT% | 3P% |
Ian Clark | 34 | 24.6 | 12.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.5 | .490 | .813 | .436 |
Mick Hedgepeth | 34 | 21.9 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.4 | .533 | .715 | .400 |
Scott Saunders | 34 | 17.4 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | .516 | .741 | .000 |
Jordan Campbell | 34 | 21.3 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | .492 | .667 | .460 |
Kerron Johnson | 34 | 18.1 | 7.7 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | .504 | .745 | .462 |
Drew Hanlen | 34 | 23.3 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.4 | .354 | .864 | .346 |
J.J. Mann | 34 | 15.6 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | .399 | .652 | .327 |
Jon House | 34 | 19.0 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.3 | .492 | .683 | .393 |
Trevor Noack | 34 | 14.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | .405 | .762 | .302 |
Blake Jenkins | 33 | 10.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.1 | .447 | .686 | .321 |
Brandon Baker | 34 | 12.2 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | .370 | .643 | .288 |
Adam Barnes | 29 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | .591 | .667 | .600 |
Jonny Rice | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
Holden Mobley | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
Totals | 34 | -- | 80 | 36 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 14 | .464 | .737 | .381 |
Wisconsin 23-8 (3rd in the Big ten, lost in Quarterfinals of BT tournament)
Category | Offense | Defense | D-I Avg | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. Efficiency | 123.6 2 | 95.6 63 | 101.4 | |
Adj. Tempo | 57.6 345 | 66.7 | ||
Four Factors | ||||
Effective FG%: | 52.0 47 | 48.3 129 | 49.0 | |
Turnover %: | 13.1 1 | 16.9 322 | 20.2 | |
Off. Reb. %: | 34.6 95 | 27.4 12 | 32.3 | |
FTA/FGA: | 28.0 336 | 31.4 49 | 37.9 | |
Miscellaneous Components | ||||
3P%: | 37.1 50 | 37.5 315 | 34.4 | |
2P%: | 49.5 93 | 45.1 68 | 47.7 | |
FT%: | 82.4 1 | 75.0 343 | 69.2 | |
Block%: | 6.0 2 | 9.1 163 | 9.2 | |
Steal%: | 6.5 4 | 6.0 343 | 9.4 | |
Style Components | ||||
3PA/FGA: | 40.5 29 | 28.7 47 | 32.9 | |
A/FGM: | 55.0 135 | 46.3 26 | 53.7 | |
Defensive Fingerprint: | Mostly Man | |||
Point Distribution (% of total points) | ||||
3-Pointers: | 35.5 20 | 26.9 181 | 27.3 | |
2-Pointers: | 46.4 298 | 53.5 107 | 51.6 | |
Free Throws: | 18.2 304 | 19.6 247 | 21.1 | |
Strength of Schedule | ||||
Components: | 108.6 9 | 97.8 34 | 101.4 | |
Overall: | .7698 14 | .5000 | ||
Non-conference: | .4572 203 | .5000 | ||
Personnel | ||||
Bench Minutes: | 23.8% 310 | 30.7% | ||
Experience: | 1.98 yrs 92 | 1.73 | ||
Effective Height: | +2.6 35 | 0.0 | ||
Average Height: | 77.7" 31 | 76.5 |
Wisconsin also relies on a balanced and efficient attack (2nd in the nation) to wear opponents down and defeat them. They have been known to be involved in very low scoring games (see the 36-33 loss to Penn State over the weekend as an example). This slower tempo makes them susceptible to losses to underdogs, and I think that may be their downfall on Thursday.
GAME STATISTICS
Player
GP
MIN
PPG
RPG
APG
SPG
BPG
TPG
FG%
FT%
3P%
Jon Leuer
31
33.6
18.6
7.3
1.7
0.5
0.9
1.5
.477
.847
.378
Jordan Taylor
31
36.2
18.1
4.1
4.7
0.7
0.1
1.1
.453
.849
.433
Keaton Nankivil
31
28.4
10.0
4.4
0.7
0.5
1.2
0.9
.502
.848
.462
Josh Gasser
31
28.1
5.9
4.0
2.3
0.5
0.1
0.8
.470
.851
.305
Mike Bruesewitz
31
19.2
4.2
2.8
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.7
.458
.727
.308
Tim Jarmusz
31
22.9
3.6
2.1
1.2
0.5
0.0
0.3
.347
.905
.341
Ryan Evans
31
11.9
2.9
2.4
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.7
.313
.771
.000
Jared Berggren
26
7.0
2.3
1.1
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.5
.490
.615
.278
Rob Wilson
22
7.6
1.6
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.3
.333
.875
.059
Brett Valentyn
21
5.3
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
.348
.500
.348
Ben Brust
14
3.2
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
.250
.000
.200
Wquinton Smith
24
5.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
.313
.333
.200
Duje Dukan
7
2.1
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
.250
.000
.000
J.P. Gavinski
5
1.8
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
.000
.500
.000
Dan Fahey
3
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
.000
.000
.000
J.D. Wise
1
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
.000
.000
.000
Totals
31
--
68
32
13
3
3
7
.445
.824
.371
Projections:
KenPom- Wisconsin 66-63 (61%)
ESPN- Wisconsin (69%)
BSD Secret Formula- Wisconsin 68-66
My Prediction: Belmont 71-66
I predict that Belmont will ride the heels of Head Coach Rick Byrd to victory. This is not the best matchup for them, but Wisconsin is a team that struggled over the weekend. Belmont has won 12 straight games and will be extremely confident coming in to Thursday night’s matchup with the Badgers. I would expect the Bruins to get hot from outside early, putting pressure on Wisconsin to make up some ground, which is clearly not their strong suit. This should be a very entertaining game to watch, and I think it will be one of the best three first round matchups.