Belmont vs. Wisconsin

In this post I will break down what I believe to be the best first round matchup. It is quite odd that what could be considered the best first round matchup is actually a 4-13 game. In my opinion the committee fudged up Belmont's seeding. If the committee had used KenPom, they would know that Wisconsin is #9 (so they are underseeded), and Belmont is #18 (as a 13 seed, they are VASTLY underseeded).

This will come as no surprise to anybody who has talked to me this week, but Belmont is my sleeper pick. I absolutely hate their draw though. If they do manage to top Bo Ryan's club, they will likely face Utah State (another vastly underrated team) in the Round of 32. I like Utah State in that matchup, so that would essentially end the Bruins "Cinderella" run early.

Let's take a look at the Belmont-Wisconsin breakdown though

Click through for a statistical look at this critical first round matchup.

Belmont (30-4, Atlantic Sun regular season and tournament champions)

• Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Avg
  Adj. Efficiency	112.6 32	90.7 19	101.4
  Adj. Tempo	69.1 57		66.7
  Four Factors
  Effective FG%:	54.4 9	45.6 35	49.0
  Turnover %:	20.0 163	27.6 2	20.2
  Off. Reb. %:	37.9 14	32.5 192	32.3
  FTA/FGA:	38.0 163	45.9 304	37.9
  Miscellaneous Components
  3P%:	38.1 30	32.8 78	34.4
  2P%:	52.4 15	44.1 35	47.7
  FT%:	73.6 48	67.5 82	69.2
  Block%:	13.2 343	9.8 125	9.2
  Steal%:	9.9 231	13.9 2	9.4
  Style Components
  3PA/FGA:	42.2 18	30.3 95	32.9
  A/FGM:	59.5 55	53.2 152	53.7
  Defensive Fingerprint:	Mostly Man
  Point Distribution (% of total points)
  3-Pointers:	35.2 23	24.4 273	27.3
  2-Pointers:	44.3 329	50.3 221	51.6
  Free Throws:	20.5 220	25.3 24	21.1
  Strength of Schedule
  Components:	98.2 304	103.6 254	101.4
  Overall:	.3487 290		.5000
  Non-conference:	.5136 153		.5000
  Personnel
  Bench Minutes:	44.5% 4		30.7%
  Experience:	1.59 yrs 223		1.73
  Effective Height:	+0.5 143		0.0
  Average Height:	77.0" 100		76.5"

  
  
• Belmont relied on an extremely efficient and balanced offense to cruise their way to a 30-4 record this season. Their only losses came to Tennessee (x2), Vanderbilt, and Lipscomb. A knock on them is that they do not have any impressive wins. They played the 290th toughest schedule in the country (55th easiest), and lost their only "big games" of the year. It will be interesting to see how they come out against Wisconsin on Thursday night.

Wisconsin 23-8 (3rd in the Big ten, lost in Quarterfinals of BT tournament)

Wisconsin also relies on a balanced and efficient attack (2nd in the nation) to wear opponents down and defeat them. They have been known to be involved in very low scoring games (see the 36-33 loss to Penn State over the weekend as an example). This slower tempo makes them susceptible to losses to underdogs, and I think that may be their downfall on Thursday.

Projections:

KenPom- Wisconsin 66-63 (61%)

ESPN- Wisconsin (69%)

BSD Secret Formula- Wisconsin 68-66

My Prediction: Belmont 71-66

I predict that Belmont will ride the heels of Head Coach Rick Byrd to victory. This is not the best matchup for them, but Wisconsin is a team that struggled over the weekend. Belmont has won 12 straight games and will be extremely confident coming in to Thursday night’s matchup with the Badgers. I would expect the Bruins to get hot from outside early, putting pressure on Wisconsin to make up some ground, which is clearly not their strong suit. This should be a very entertaining game to watch, and I think it will be one of the best three first round matchups.