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Wake Forest vs. Miami Game Preview

By Riley Johnston

Miami_pri1_medium

Miami Hurricanes (14-9, 3-6) (1-6 Road, 0-4 ACC) (68 KenPom)

@ 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-15, 1-7) (7-7 Home, 1-2 ACC) (252 KenPom)

TV: RSN (ACC Network)

Wake Forest is coming off two straight road blowouts to FSU and Maryland. The Hurricanes have won two straight at home over Virginia and Boston College. Hopefully the Deacs will get a home boost as the Hurricanes travel to the Joel tonight for a 7:00 tip.

Category Offense Defense D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency: 111.7 40 99.4 131 101.3
Adj. Tempo: 65.8 237 67.2
Four Factors
Effective FG%: 51.7 67 47.1 95 49.0
Turnover %: 20.3 170 18.0 299 20.5
Off. Reb. %: 36.1 49 32.3 170 32.5
FTA/FGA: 41.7 78 38.4 181 38.0
Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 38.4 40 33.2 119 34.4
2P%: 48.1 161 45.7 96 47.8
FT%: 73.1 58 68.6 163 68.9
Block%: 9.8 221 10.0 126 9.2
Steal%: 10.3 253 8.9 213 9.5

Miami has been doing pretty well on offense under Frank Haith this year. They rely on a relatively slow pace (65.8 ppg), and are relatively good at everything on the offensive end. Defense has not been as strong. They are limiting opponents to .994 points per possession (remember that 1.00 is really the benchmark), which isn't bad, but it isn't good either. Miami is nearly as bad as Wake Forest at forcing turnovers, with only 18% of opponents possessions ending in a turnover. They are mediocre at defensive rebounding, as well as sending opponents to the line.

The Canes rely on a healthy 3-pt%, which is necessary because 38% of their shots are from behind the arc. They could certainly use a better percentage from inside the 3-point line, but since they limit opponents to poor shooting, it hasn't hurt them as much as it could. Free throw shooting has been a strength for the Canes (3rd in the conference; Wake is first). Ballhandling, as well as shot selection could be better as well. Frank Haith's squad gives up a lot of steals and gets a lot of their shots blocked. That may be a problem if Ty Walker sees a good amount of minutes tonight (which he could with Ari Stewart questionable for the game with an illness).

From John Gasaway

Through games of February 7, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP)

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Duke              8-1   68.9    1.12    0.92    +0.20
2.  North Carolina    7-1   71.1    1.08    0.95    +0.13
3.  Clemson           5-4   64.5    1.05    0.97    +0.08
4.  Virginia Tech     5-4   64.7    1.06    0.98    +0.08
5.  Maryland          5-4   69.4    1.03    0.98    +0.05
6.  Florida St.       6-3   68.6    0.98    0.95    +0.03
7.  Georgia Tech      3-6   68.8    0.97    0.96    +0.01
8.  Miami             3-6   63.6    1.03    1.07    -0.04
9.  Boston College    5-4   64.8    1.08    1.14    -0.06
10. Virginia          3-6   61.3    0.97    1.05    -0.08
11. NC State          2-7   67.7    1.00    1.13    -0.13
12. Wake Forest       1-7   70.5    0.88    1.17    -0.29

 

As you can see (barely) from this chart by John Gasaway, Miami plays some of the slowest ball in the ACC during conference play. They have been alright on offense, but defense has been a struggle, ranking 9th in the ACC in Opp. PPG at 1.07. 


GAME STATISTICS
Player GP MIN PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
Malcolm Grant 23 32.9 15.4 1.7 3.6 0.8 0.0 2.4 .423 .878 .439
Durand Scott 23 32.6 13.5 4.3 3.2 1.0 0.2 2.8 .438 .856 .383
Reggie Johnson 23 24.7 12.0 9.9 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.5 .568 .677 .000
Adrian Thomas 23 26.1 8.8 4.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.1 .389 .708 .392
Garrius Adams 23 28.5 7.3 3.3 1.8 1.1 0.1 1.6 .390 .623 .338
DeQuan Jones 17 15.0 5.2 2.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.4 .439 .640 .091
Rion Brown 23 13.7 3.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 .361 .654 .347
Julian Gamble 23 15.0 3.3 3.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 .559 .375 .000
Donnavan Kirk 13 9.5 2.7 1.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.1 .406 .900 .000
Erik Swoope 20 8.1 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.4 .478 .667 .000
Raphael Akpejiori 17 5.3 1.7 1.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 .556 .633 .000
Ryan Quigtar 4 1.8 0.8 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.000 .000 1.000
Totals 23 -- 73 37 12 6 4 14 .445 .731 .384

  • Miami relies heavily on an 8 man rotation, with Donnavan Kirk and Erik Swoope seeing just under 10 minutes per game.
  • Malcolm Grant, Durand Scott, and Reggie Johnson are the heart and soul of this Miami team, accounting for 41 ppg, 15 rpg, and 7 apg.
  • Reggie Johnson is a W-S Prep grad, and came right out of our own backyard. He also tore us up in the ACC Tournament last year. He does an insanely good job (#3 in the country according to KenPom) of grabbing rebounds (19% of all Miami missed shots are rebounded by Johnson). We will have to box him out when a shot goes up, or he is going to have a huge game against us.
Predictions
  • KenPom- Miami 80- Wake Forest 69 (84%)
  • Vegas has Miami -8.5 (O/U 144.5)
  • My Prediction-Miami 74- Wake 66
I think that we are going to come out hot and ready to play. Our guys know that these next two games against State and Miami are two of the more winnable games left. We got our butts handed to us on the road the past two games, but there were certainly bright spots. With Ari Stewart possibly out, Nikita will likely get a little more time than he has got. We may even go with Chennault at the start. I would guess this for our starting lineup: TC, CJ, Gary, Travis, Carson. I could see Nikita getting the nod too, but my guess is for us to downsize rather than upsize. Another combination would be Carson at the 4, and Ty at the 5, that is also quite feasible.

If we can get a moderate lead at the half and hold on to it then I could certainly see us "pulling the upset." I think at the end Miami will have a little too much size inside for us to handle, and Reggie will have a big game for the Canes.
As always, comments are welcome. I encourage everybody to get out there and support the team if you aren't already. Go Deacs!