In the spirit of avoiding Bzz bashing, here's a bit of trivia from my days at Wake.

It is unusual to have a starting five that all hail from the same home state, let alone the state in which your school is located. At the start of the basketball season my freshman year (1982-83), that was exactly the case for our team. Here were the starters, and hometowns:

Alvis Rogers - Washington, NC

John Toms - Shelby, NC

Anthony Teachey - Goldsboro, NC

Danny Young - Raleigh, NC

Delaney Rudd - Hollister, NC

Later in the season, Kenny Green replaced Toms once he was off suspension, but for a time, it was pretty unique.

The Wake Forest men's basketball team has (probably) four games left in this season spanning a three week period. The schedule:

2/25: BC

2/28: Duke

3/3: @GT

3/8: ACC Tournament First Round Game (currently projected as the 10 seed with a 1-2 finish to the regular season).

Now, it seems to me that in the past couple of weeks - and not wholly without reason - the commentary on the team has devolved into a condemnation of the coaching staff, particularly Bzdelik. I myself have been guilty of this as well - it's fun to speculate on changes to be made when things are going poorly.

However, it seems that this has become the only commentary here. So instead, what I propose is this: a three week moratorium on discussions of Jeff Bzdelik's coaching, Jeff Bzdelik's future, Jeff Bzdelik's hair (toupee? combover? how is that consistently immaculate?), Jeff Bzdelik's wardrobe selection (this one's on me), Jeff Bzdelik's press conferences, Jeff Bzdelik's radio show, Jeff Bzdelik's choice of milk (skim? soy?), Jeff Bzdelik's relationship to Ron Wellman, and Jeff Bzdelik's choice in literature (I bet his favorite book is Atlas Shrugged, or possibly Moby Dick).

There will be plenty of time after the season to speculate on any decision made by Bzdelik or Wellman. But for the time being, it's pretty clear that both parties are committed to playing out the string with what we have. So instead of focusing on the coach, I propose we focus on exactly that: what we have.

We have two all-ACC caliber players. We have two centers who have both made significant strides to become serviceable ACC big men; both are excellent shot-blockers and otherwise plus defenders. We have someone billed as a shooter who has shown flashes of offensive brilliance handling the ball. We have a psychotically competitive point guard who won't back down from anyone. Why not focus on these things and figure out how we can best improve from a player standpoint for next season and beyond?

This is not an official BSD position. This is me wanting to foster dialogue that doesn't inevitably degenerate into a lynch mob.

Make no mistake, Wake basketball will return to a position as one of the premier basketball schools in the ACC. We may lack the history of our North Carolina brethren, but we care just as much, if not more. It may be a long and arduous process, but that will make the return to glory that much sweeter.

Not to get too excited here, but Wake has a chance of finishing the season winning 2 of 3 (or 3 of their last 5). They even have a chance to finish 8th in the conference. Personally, i would be pretty happy with 5-11, 8th/9th place finish as a building block to next year. 5-11 is nothing to celebrate, but it is better than 1-15 and is a positive step in re-building this program. Enter the super 6, including backboard shattering Devin Thomas, plus UPPERCLASSMEN on the roster for the fist time in 2 years. Looking better all the time.

Source: ESPN

All credit to Eamonn Brennan. In fact, his take seems suspiciously like he reads the comments on BSD.

3. Jeff Bzdelik, Wake Forest

Offense: The perils of progress
Bottom 10 judgment: "Don't Think Twice, It's All Right." Wake Forest has already won three more games than it did last season, one of the worst in program history. And before the season is out, the Demon Deacons may just win a few more. In a vacuum, that's a sign of progress. Besides, it's always too early to evaluate a coach after just two seasons. Jeff Bzdelik deserves time and space to build his program in his own image, and all that. Granted. But here's the thing: When Bzdelik was hired in 2010, he replaced Dino Gaudio, a coach who had overseen the program's rise to a No. 1 ranking in 2009 and a 44-18 record in two seasons. Sure, Gaudio's teams finished poorly, but they were more than competitive. Still, Wake AD Ron Wellman fired Gaudio after just three seasons at the helm and quickly installed Bzdelik, despite the former Colorado coach's 36-58 record in his three previous seasons.

Two seasons later, Wake is alone in last place in the ACC -- again. The Demon Deacons have now lost six in a row and nine of their last 10, including a 20-point home drubbing to Clemson on Saturday. If Wake Forest wins its last five ACC games (which, hint, ain't happenin'), Bzdelik would reach 24 total wins at the school -- as many as Gaudio had in 2009 alone. It's too early to write a memorandum on Bzdelik's tenure yet. He's the coach now, and he deserves more time. Even so, Wake's proud, hungry fans must agree that Gaudio deserved much the same.

... Because the numbers speak for themselves, folks.

There has been a large amount of turnover of men's head basketball coaches in the ACC. In the past three seasons, eight of the twelve ACC schools will have changed coaches (BC, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest). For the purposes of this study, I am going to ignore the first year coaches (Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, NC State) as they have not had enough data with which to analyze their performance.

I propose to look at the before and after results of these four coaches (Steve Donahue, Brad Brownell, Tony Bennett, Jeff Bzdelik) compared to each other and to the three year history prior to their arrival. To do this, I will look at the Ken Pomeroy efficiency, Rivals recruiting rankings, and key departures to assess each current coach's outlook with the previous coach. At the end, I will compare the various trajectories on which these programs find themselves.

All the normal disclaimers apply. This is a relatively small look at data, and as such likely would hold little statistical value in itself. The trends themselves will hopefully provide insight.

All stats for this season are through Friday.

KenPom national rankings are taken from Ken Pomeroy's website.

Recruiting rankings are taken from Rivals, with the number of stars for each recruit and a national ranking if in the top 150 recruits nationally. Recruits without stars were not rated by Rivals (and are typically considered below high-major quality). For reference, a three-star recruit is considered an average/below average recruit for a typical high-major program. NCAA Tournament First Round is considered the round with 64 teams.

Scorers are players who average 8.0 or more points per game. Rebounders are players who average 5.0 or more rebounds per game. Passers are players who average 3.0 or more assists per game. All per-game stats taken from ESPN.

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Boston College

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Former coach: Al Skinner (fired March 30, 2010)

~~~~~

2007-2008: 14-17 (4-12 ACC), 89th national KenPom rank (76th offense, 113th defense)

Scorers: Tyrese Rice (21.0), Rakim Sanders (11.3), Shamari Spears (9.6), Corey Raji (8.3)

Rebounders: Shamari Spears (6.1)

Passers: Tyrese Rice (5.0)

~~~~~

2008-2009: 22-12 (9-7), 69th (34th, 139th), NCAA Tournament First Round

Additions: Joe Trapani (transfer), Reggie Jackson (***, 115th national ranking), Dallas Elmore (***), Evan Ravenel (***)

Departures: Shamari Spears, John Oates

Scorers: Tyrese Rice (16.9), Joe Trapani (13.4), Rakim Sanders (12.9), Corey Raji (9.9)

Rebounders: Joe Trapani (6.6), Corey Raji (6.1), Josh Southern (5.1)

Passers: Tyrese Rice (5.3)

~~~~~

2009-2010: 15-16 (6-10), 62nd (49th, 82nd)

Additions: none

Departures: Tyrese Rice

Scorers: Joe Trapani (14.1), Reggie Jackson (12.9), Corey Raji (11.4), Rakim Sanders (11.3)

Rebounders: Joe Trapani (6.4), Corey Raji (5.8), Reggie Jackson (5.7)

Passers: Reggie Jackson (4.5), Biko Paris (4.1)

~~~~~

Current coach: Steve Donahue (hired from Cornell, April 6, 2010)

~~~~~

2010-2011: 21-13 (9-7), 68th (17th, 204th)

Additions: Gabe Moton, Danny Rubin, John Cahill

Departures: Rakim Sanders, Tyler Roche, Evan Ravenel (transfer)

Scorers: Reggie Jackson (18.2), Joe Trapani (14.8), Corey Raji (12.1), Biko Paris (10.3)

Rebounders: Joe Trapani (7.0), Corey Raji (6.7)

Passers: Reggie Jackson (4.5), Biko Paris (3.5)

~~~~~

2011-2012: 8-16 (3-7), 240th (287th, 157th)

Additions: Ryan Anderson (***), Kyle Caudill (***), Dennis Clifford (***), Jordan Daniels (***), Patrick Heckmann, Lonnie Jackson (***), Eddie Odio, Matt Humphrey (transfer)

Departures: Reggie Jackson (NBA), Joe Trapani, Corey Raji, Biko Paris, Josh Southern, Dallas Elmore (transfer)

Scorers: Matt Humphrey (10.3), Ryan Anderson (9.6) Patrick Heckmann (9.1), Dennis Clifford (9.0)

Rebounders: Ryan Anderson (6.8)

Passers: none

~~~~~

2012-2013 (projected

Additions: Oliver Hanlan (***), Joe Rahon (***)

Departures: John Cahill

~~~~~

Notes: Boston College has really struggled this season, and it's not difficult to see why. Donahue lost his top five scorers from his 2010-2011 team, and has had to replace them with middling (three-star) recruits.

~~~~~

Outlook: Given the up and down nature of Al Skinner's time - and given that he tended to do it with a deliberate system, strong player development, and the occasional star (Craig Smith, Jared Dudley, Tyrese Rice) - I'm not sure that BC under Donahue will ever return to such a strong level, but if Donahue can continue the tradition of developing underappreciated recruits, then he should be able to field moderately successful, middle-of-the-pack ACC teams.

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Clemson

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Former coach: Oliver Purnell (left for Depaul, April 6, 2010)

~~~~~

2007-2008: 24-10 (10-6), 13th (29th, 12th), NCAA Tournament First Round

Scorers: K.C. Rivers (14.7), Cliff Hammonds (11.4), Trevor Booker (11.0), James Mays (10.7), Terrence Oglesby (10.5), Demontez Stitt (8.8)

Rebounders: Trevor Booker (7.3), James Mays (6.8), K.C. Rivers (6.3)

Passers: Cliff Hammonds (3.9), Demontez Stitt (3.0)

~~~~~

2008-2009: 23-9 (9-7), 22nd (16th, 52nd), NCAA Tournament First Round

Additions: Andre Young (***, 142nd), Tanner Smith (***), Catalin Baciu (***, 106th), Bryan Narcisse (**)

Departures: Cliff Hammonds, James Mays, Sam Perry

Scorers: Trevor Booker (15.3), K.C. Rivers (14.2), Terrence Oglesby (13.2), Demontez Stitt (8.7)

Rebounders: Trevor Booker (9.7), K.C. Rivers (6.0), Raymond Sykes (5.1)

Passers: Demontez Stitt (3.8)

~~~~~

2009-2010: 21-11 (9-7), 20th (44th, 15th), NCAA Tournament First Round

Additions: Milton Jennings (*****, 25th), Noel Johnson (****, 53rd), Devin Booker (****, 96th), Donte Hill (***)

Departures: K.C. Rivers, Raymond Sykes

Scorers: Trevor Booker (15.2), Demontez Stitt (11.4), Andre Young (9.2), Tanner Smith (8.7)

Rebounders: Trevor Booker (8.4)

Passers: Demontez Stitt (3.1)

~~~~~

Current coach: Brad Brownell (hired from Wright State, April 13, 2010)

~~~~~

2010-2011: 22-12 (9-7), 22nd (66th, 11th), NCAA Tournament First Round

Additions: Cory Stanton (***)

Departures: Trevor Booker, David Potter

Scorers: Demontez Stitt (14.5), Jerai Grant (12.4), Andre Young (11.1), Milton Jennings (8.3), Devin Booker (8.1)

Rebounders: Jerai Grant (6.7), Devin Booker (5.5), Milton Jennings (5.2)

Passers: Demontez Stitt (3.3), Andre Young (3.0)

~~~~~

2011-2012: 11-12 (3-6), 98th (130th, 71st)

Additions: Rod Hall (***), T.J. Sapp (***), K.J. McDaniels (***), Bernard Sullivan (****, 83rd), Devin Coleman (***)

Departures: Demontez Stitt, Jerai Grant, Noel Johnson (transfer)

Scorers: Andre Young (13.7), Devin Booker (11.0), Tanner Smith (10.9), Milton Jennings (9.2)

Rebounders: Devin Booker (6.9), Milton Jennings (5.5), Tanner Smith (5.4)

Passers: Tanner Smith (4.0), Andre Young (3.4)

~~~~~

2012-2013 (projected)

Additions: Jaron Blossomgame (***, 119th), Adonis Filer (***, 117th), Landry Nnoko (***), Jordan Roper (***), Josh Smith

Departures: Tanner Smith, Catalin Baciu, Bryan Narcisse

~~~~~

Notes: Clemson is another team struggling this season, and it's again not hard to see why. Clemson has been hit with attrition more gradually than most, but a look at the names that have matriculated reveal a significant chunk of the teams that were so successful under Oliver Purnell (and it should be noted again that, depending on your viewpoint, he either created a series of very good teams in his final years at Clemson or underachieved based on his early tournament flameouts). Brownell managed to continue Purnell's success last year largely thanks to the emergence of Demontez Stitt, but with Stitt gone this year Clemson has not developed the next generation of stars to maintain its success.

~~~~~

Outlook: It is worrisome for Clemson that the stellar recruiting class of 2009 has not assumed leadership and star roles. Instead, the current iteration of the Tigers - like most before it - has been built on balance. While that's fine if you're proving capable of attracting top recruits or developing players like Purnell, it's less fine if you're bringing in three-star recruits and your older players have not lived up to their recruiting hype. While Brownell's won wherever he's gone, it seems as if Clemson is headed for a bit of a downturn, particularly given the standards set by his predecessor.

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Virginia

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Former coach: Dave Leitao (resigned March 18, 2009)

~~~~~

2006-2007: 21-11 (11-5), 45th (30th, 59th), NCAA Tournament Second Round

Scorers: Sean Singletary (19.0), J.R. Reynolds (18.4), Mamadi Diane (9.6)

Rebounders: Jason Cain (6.3)

Passers: Sean Singletary (4.7), J.R. Reynolds (3.7)

~~~~~

2007-2008: 17-16 (5-11), 79th (51st, 123rd)

Additions: Calvin Baker (transfer), Mike Scott (***, 115th), Jeff Jones (****, 81st), Mustapha Farrakhan (***), Sammy Zeglinski (***)

Departures: J.R. Reynolds, Jason Cain

Scorers: Sean Singletary (19.8), Mamadi Diane (11.8), Adrian Joseph (9.9), Calvin Baker (8.6)

Rebounders: Adrian Joseph (5.7), Mike Scott (5.3)

Passers: Sean Singletary (6.1)

~~~~~

2008-2009: 10-18 (4-12), 105th (165th, 64th)

Additions: Sylven Landesburg (****, 66th), Assane Sene (***), John Brandenburg (****, 81st)

Departures: Sean Singletary, Adrian Joseph, Laurynas Mikalauskas, Ryan Pettinella

Scorers: Sylven Landesburg (16.6), Mike Scott (10.3), Calvin Baker (8.4)

Rebounders: Mike Scott (7.4), Sylven Landesburg (6.0)

Passers: Sammy Zeglinski (3.0)

~~~~~

Current coach: Tony Bennett (hired from Washington State, March 31, 2009)

~~~~~

2009-2010: 15-16 (5-11), 76th (97th, 65th)

Additions: Tristan Spurlock (****, 91st), Jontel Evans (***)

Departures: Jamil Tucker, Mamadi Diane, John Brandenburg (transfer)

Scorers: Sylven Landesburg (17.3), Mike Scott (12.0), Sammy Zeglinski (8.9)

Rebounders: Mike Scott (7.2)

Passers: none

~~~~~

2010-2011: 16-15 (7-9), 94th (145th, 69th)

Additions: Joe Harris (***, 119th), K.T. Harrell (****, 30th), Will Regan (***, 148th), Akil Mitchell (***), Billy Baron (***)

Departures: Sylven Landesburg (NBA), Jeff Jones (transfer), Tristan Spurlock (transfer)

Scorers: Mike Scott (15.9), Mustapha Farrakhan (13.5), Joe Harris (10.4), K.T. Harrell (8.0)

Rebounders: Mike Scott (10.2), Assane Sene (5.5)

Passers: Jontel Evans (3.5)

~~~~~

2011-2012: 19-4 (6-3), 18th, (81st, 7th)

Additions: James Johnson (redshirt, ***), Malcolm Brogdon (****, 104th), Darion Atkins (***), Paul Jesperson (***, 136th)

Departures: Billy Baron (transfer), Mustapha Farrakhan, Will Sherrill

Scorers: Mike Scott (17.0), Joe Harris (12.7), Sammy Zeglinski (8.5)

Rebounders: Mike Scott (8.3)

Passers: Jontel Evans (3.7)

~~~~~

2012-2013 (projected)

Additions: Justin Anderson (****, 35th), Evan Nolte (***, 120th), Mike Tobey (***, 109th), Teven Jones

Departures: Assane Sene, Sammy Zeglinski, Mike Scott

~~~~~

Notes: Finally, a success story. Leitao's teams were highly dependent on Sean Singletary. Even his most successful team (2006-2007) was vastly overrated - to put this in perspective, Virginia placed ninth out of twelve teams in the ACC in the KenPom rankings that year, including behind two teams that missed the NCAA Tournament, yet got a 4 seed. When Singletary graduated, the bottom dropped out. However, Bennett has gradually improved this team based around his defensive structure. While people are viewing this as the big breakthrough year, what strikes me is that in 2010-2011, Bennett managed to keep Virginia about on par with its previous year's performance (and actually win two more ACC games) despite losing all three of his returning top 100 recruits. That is ridiculous, and he should've won ACC Coach of the Year last year.

~~~~~

Outlook: Everything's coming up Wahoo. Obviously, Bennett's got the coaching chops to succeed. He has a set system, he recruits reasonably well, and he develops his players to be useful contributors in their junior and senior seasons. Absent being able to consistently recruit top notch talent like John Calipari or Roy Williams, that's about the most consistent method of sustaining success in college basketball. My one concern lies with the graduation of this class. While Joe Harris looks capable of stepping into the lead scorer role, Mike Scott has developed into such a singular talent that replacing him is a bit of a question mark, regardless of how qualified other players appear to be capable of doing so. Still, if I had to wager on it, I'd guess that Virginia will continue to develop and become a consistent ACC title contender for as long as Bennett stays there.

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Wake Forest

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Former coach: Dino Gaudio (fired April 7, 2010)

~~~~~

2007-2008: 17-13 (7-9), 68th (84th, 63rd)

Scorers: James Johnson (14.6), Jeff Teague (13.9), L.D. Williams (8.9), Ishmael Smith (8.6), Chas McFarland (8.4), Harvey Hale (8.1)

Rebounders: James Johnson (8.1), Chas McFarland (5.8)

Passers: Ishmael Smith (4.7)

~~~~~

2008-2009: 24-7 (11-5), 25th (43rd, 23rd), NCAA Tournament First Round

Additions: Al-Farouq Aminu (*****, 7th), Ty Walker (*****, 17th), Tony Woods (*****, 20th)

Departures: Jamie Skeen (transfer), Cameron Stanley (transfer)

Scorers: Jeff Teague (18.8), James Johnson (15.0), Al-Farouq Aminu (12.9), Chas McFarland (8.7), L.D. Williams (8.0)

Rebounders: James Johnson (8.5), Al-Farouq Aminu (8.2), Chas McFarland (5.8)

Passers: Jeff Teague (3.5), Ishmael Smith (3.4)

~~~~~

2009-2010: 20-11 (9-7), 58th (96th, 32nd), NCAA Tournament Second Round

Additions: Ari Stewart (****, 52nd), C.J. Harris (***), Konner Tucker (***)

Departures: James Johnson (NBA), Jeff Teague (NBA), Harvey Hale

Scorers: Al-Farouq Aminu (15.8), Ishmael Smith (13.2), C.J. Harris (9.9), L.D. Williams (8.7)

Rebounders: Al-Farouq Aminu (10.7), Chas McFarland (7.0), L.D. Williams (5.6)

Passers: Ishmael Smith (6.0)

~~~~~

Current coach: Jeff Bzdelik (hired from Colorado, April 13, 2010)

~~~~~

2010-2011: 8-24 (1-15), 251st (235th, 256th)

Additions: J.T. Terrell (****, 53rd), Travis McKie (****, 57th), Melvin Tabb (****, 88th), Carson Desrosiers (****, 91st), Tony Chennault (***), Nikita Mescheriakov (transfer)

Departures: Al-Farouq Aminu (NBA), Ishmael Smith, L.D. Williams, Chas McFarland, David Weaver, Konner Tucker (transfer)

Scorers: Travis McKie (13.0), J.T. Terrell (11.1), Gary Clark (10.9), C.J. Harris (10.3), Ari Stewart (8.5)

Rebounders: Travis McKie (7.7)

Passers: C.J. Harris (3.5)

~~~~~

2011-2012: 11-13 (2-9), 203rd (210th, 196th)

Additions: Chase Fischer (***), Daniel Green (***), Anthony Fields (***)

Departures: Melvin Tabb (out of school), Ari Stewart (transfer), J.T. Terrell (transfer), Tony Woods (transfer), Gary Clark

Scorers: C.J. Harris (17.2), Travis McKie (15.8), Tony Chennault (9.6)

Rebounders: Travis McKie (7.2), Ty Walker (5.1)

Passers: Tony Chennault (3.0)

~~~~~

2012-2013 (projected)

Additions: Cody Miller-McIntyre (****, 70th), Arnaud Moto (***, 118th), Tyler Cavanaugh (***), Devin Thomas (***), Aaron Rountree (***), Andre Washington (***)

Departures: Ty Walker, Nikita Mescheriakov

~~~~~

Notes: Three things leap out at me from this data. First, Wake has consistently outrecruited the other schools on this list. Pick your statistic, and Wake dominates. Five-star recruits? Wake has three, the others have one combined. Top 50 recruits? Wake still has three, while the others also have three (and one of those will be arriving next year). Top 100 recruits? Wake has nine, the other schools combine for ten. Basically, by any metric, Wake has been the best recruiting school of the bunch (with Virginia surprisingly the second best). However, the second thing that is readily apparent is the sheer volume of turnover that Wake has had during the time period in question. In the four seasons that I tracked the departing scholarship athletes, Wake has averaged four departures a year, compared to a little less than three for the other schools. In particular, the turnover during Bzdelik's tenure has been extreme. The third thing that leaps out at me is the effect that that turnover has had on the Bzdelik-era teams. The 2010-2011 team essentially started from scratch; C.J. Harris returned, but none of the other key players. And that team struggled mightily. This year's team, while still not good (and to the growing disgruntlement of the BSD faithful, apparently getting worse), is still significantly better than last year's team statistically. That's more a testament to how bad last year's team was, but improvement has still occurred, and should be noted.

~~~~~

Outlook: This is by far the murkiest outlook of the bunch. On paper, Wake should have had the best results of these teams over this period by virtue of the superior recruiting. At the same time, Wake has also suffered extreme roster turnover, so very few of those recruits still play for Wake (there will be as many Wake top-100 recruits playing for Southern California next season as top-100 recruits playing for Virginia). While other schools have suffered a turnover due to coaching change (Virginia had a number of transfers over the course of Bennett's first two seasons), none have experienced two such wholesale change seasons in a row. At the same time, however, no other school has suffered two consecutive horrendous seasons either. In short, and this will no doubt irk many of the BSD fans calling for blood (myself included), it seems as if it's still too early to tell about Bzdelik. He deserves a season with a settled roster.

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Conclusion

--------------------

So, in the end, what to make of this? I know it's not going to be a popular answer, but the roster turnover that Wake has endured has been extreme enough to serve as a legitimate (if unpopular) excuse to Wake's performance of the past two seasons. 11 scholarship players, including two five-star recruits, three other top-100 recruits, and the heart and soul of a largely successful senior class have left during a two year period. That is, quite simply, staggering. Hopefully things will straighten out, and we can get an accurate read on Bzdelik next season (as much as people want to tar and feather him right now). And if things don't straighten out, then I think it's safe to say that the accurate read is that players don't enjoy playing for him, and that's sufficient reason to fire him (or not renew his contract).

What will that read be? I think it's safe to say that a Tony Bennett scenario is out of the question. Bennett, if you recall, managed to keep his team afloat despite the defections of a good portion of his highly recruited players. It's pretty clear that Bzdelik has not done that, and he's arguably had more to work with this season than Bennett did during the 2010-2011 season. It's also a bit disconcerting that Wake isn't pulling in the same class of recruit to which it is accustomed, which could have an adverse effect down the road regardless of Bzdelik's X's and O's coaching ability.

Unfortunately for Bzdelik, he's going to need a Bennett-like emergence next season if he wants to stay around into the 2013-2014 season and times beyond.

via media.247sports.com

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-13, 2-8) will try to conquer the Clemson Tigers (11-12, 3-6) at the Lawrence Joel Veteran Memorial Coliseum. Wake lost earlier in the year at Clemson 71-60 in a lop-sided game for the Tigers. This will be a very evenly matched game and should be a great game. So if you aren't able to come out to the Joel, then you can talk about the game....HERE!

I've decided to make a list of ten potential candidates for the soon-to-be-available (by public demand) head coaching position, complete with pros and cons for each, as well as how each would fare on a neutral court against a Jeff Bzdelik-coached team.

As always, this list is probably incomplete and any suggestions should be made in the comments.

Continue reading this post »

Dey see me flopping, Dey Hating

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-12, 2-7) has 7 games remaining and they are all ACC games. It is not the toughest stretch, Perhaps the easiest stretch with 4 maybe 5 out of the 7 games being winnable games. The toughest out of the 7 will be this Wednesday at Virginia Cavaliers (18-4, 5,3) and are currently ranked nationally as 18.

(After the Jump, I discuss all the remaining games)

Continue reading this post »

I didn't know where else to put this, so I'll just link it and quote it:

Carolina March: Wake Forest, Trying Desperately to Regress to the Mean

Also thanks to Quzybuk for the analysis in the previous two fanposts. As you can tell from its brevity, this FanPost is only meant to be observational, not analytical.

Continue reading this post »

This was intended to be a much longer post explaining why, to a large degree, the talent drain that has occurred at Wake in recent memory has not been Bzdelik's fault. But after writing 2000 words and not even getting to the crux of the argument, I realized that no one in their right mind would read that. So instead, here's the research that I did regarding the lack of talent currently playing at Wake.

I would like to reiterate that I do not intend for this to be an indictment of anyone. These are simply numbers, with a little bit of my opinion mixed in.

******

There are four general college basketball recruiting strategies which coaches may follow: (1) recruit as much raw talent as you can, and allow your players to play with a minimal pre-defined system in the hope that talent wins out (the Roy Williams approach); (2) recruit as much raw talent as you can, and impose a pre-defined system as a method of adopting consistency over time (the Ben Howland pre-2009 approach); (3) recruit as much raw talent as you can, and then tailor your system to that talent (the Mike Krzyzewski approach); (4) recruit lesser talent with the goal of fitting that talent into a pre-defined system (the Bo Ryan approach). Any of the four methods can be successful, as each coaching example indicates, but the dutiful observer will note that the key to three of the four is assembling the best talent possible. It should come as no surprise then that, typically speaking, more talented teams win more games.

Since 2005, Wake has signed 13 top 100 recruits, as ranked by Rivals (Kevin Swinton, Anthony Gurley, Jamie Skeen, Jeff Teague, James Johnson, Al-Farouq Aminu, Ty Walker, Tony Woods, Ari Stewart, J.T. Terrell, Travis McKie, Melvin Tabb, Carson Desrosiers). Of these 13, exactly three have the opportunity to play all four years at Wake Forest (Walker, McKie, and Desrosiers, and Walker has not exactly lived up to his recruiting hype). The rest either transferred (Swinton, Gurley, Skeen, Woods, Stewart, Terrell), left for the NBA (Teague, Johnson, Aminu), or were kicked out of school (Tabb).

With little to no overall talent (three top 100 recruits in the last four recruiting classes still here - with one largely unproductive until recently), it's no wonder we're lagging behind the rest of the ACC. Over the same time period, Clemson, Maryland, Miami, and NC State each also have three such recruits still on the roster, while the two Techs each check in with four such recruits each. Meanwhile, the three ACC leaders have the most, as you would expect: Florida State has seven, Duke has eight (excluding Andre Dawkins, an early enrollee who otherwise would count), and North Carolina has a whopping nine such players (which would explain how they can lose a McDonald's all-American shooting guard and start playing better of all things). Virginia has no such recruits on the roster but has a coach who preaches a set system (as well as a number of recruits just out of the top 100 cut off point, and four top 100 recruits who have transferred out or left for the NBA). And poor Boston College has no such players, which explains why they're arguably the worst team in ACC history.

Based on roster construction, then, we should be middle of the ACC in terms of talent (let's say that Ty Walker actually lives up to his five-star recruiting billing). What separates the other teams with similar amounts of talent from Wake? The most glaring difference is experience. Look at the top recruits of the other teams:

Clemson: Milton Jennings (junior), Devin Booker (junior), Bernard Sullivan (freshman)

Georgia Tech: Mfon Udofia (junior), Glen Rice Jr. (junior), Kammeon Hosley (sophomore), Jason Morris (sophomore)

Maryland: Sean Mosley (senior), Mychal Parker (sophomore), Nick Faust (freshman)

Miami: Dequan Jones (senior), Durand Scott (junior), Rion Brown (sophomore)

NC State: Richard Howell (junior), C.J. Leslie (sophomore), Lorenzo Brown (sophomore)

Virginia Tech: Jarell Eddie (sophomore), Dorian Finney-Smith (freshman), Robert Brown (freshman), C.J. Barksdale (freshman)

Most of the other teams with comparable talent have experience to go with that talent. The exception to this is Virginia Tech, who, not coincidentally, has largely struggled in conference play. Wake has two sophomores and a senior who did not play for two years (essentially: a sophomore). Now, with the caveat that correlation does not equal causation (and that these rankings do not account for a good number of quality ACC players, such as ACC Player of the Year favorite Mike Scott), there certainly does appear to be a high correlation between these lists and position in the league standings.

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Of the 13 Wake recruits in question, how many can we actually say are Bzdelik's fault. I would argue one. We can immediately rule out the players that departed prior to Bzdelik's arrival: Swinton, Gurley, Skeen, Teague, Johnson, and Aminu. That leaves seven recruits for which Bzdelik is potentially responsible: Walker, Woods, Stewart, Terrell, McKie, Tabb, Desrosiers. Three of these players either were outright booted from the team or transferred as a direct result of non-coaching disciplinary actions (Woods for the unfortunate incident with his girlfriend, Terrell for his DUI, and Tabb for what is rumored to be theft). One can argue that these transfers came about as a result of Bzdelik as a stricter coach when compared to Gaudio, but I personally would like to believe that we would have released these players regardless of coach. I take great pride in my alma mater, and sometimes doing the right thing trumps on-court success.

That leaves only Ari Stewart plus our three current players. Stewart, I feel, is the only casualty that can be directly related to Bzdelik: he was unhappy with the new system and decided to transfer as a result. While this should not be ignored, it's also unfair to say that Bzdelik's completely at fault regarding the current lack of talent on the roster.

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So what's being done to fix this?

Much has been made about the incoming class, but to me, there have already been some (albeit limited) signs of improvement. You can't really teach talent. However, players can choose to work hard and improve, and the current roster of players certainly illustrates that concept. There have been noticeable strides made in the individual games of numerous current Deacons (C.J. Harris has developed an extremely consistent jump shot from both mid-range and out as well as a knack for drawing contact on drives; Travis McKie has improved his post game considerably; Ty Walker has finally started playing like an ACC caliber player after three years of no production; Carson Desrosiers has increased his strength and his shot-blocking timing). This is itself a promising sign, as it bodes well that the current staff can groom future players given time.

From a recruiting standpoint, the first full recruiting class a coach has to put together is always the most difficult. Bzdelik got credit for keeping together Gaudio's final recruiting class (although it was mainly Jeff Battle), but of the recruits in that class, only three of the five are still with the program. Bzdelik's first full class was underwhelming - no top 150 recruits. However, due to the time consuming nature of recruiting (it takes years to develop the relationships with players and their support circles), it is usually difficult to get an accurate reading of a coach's recruiting chops based on the fact that other, more established coaches will have had years head starts. Bzdelik's second recruiting class, as has been noted on many an occasion, consists of one or two top 100 recruits (depending on which site you use), including one that could be Wake's first top 50 recruit since the Aminu-Walker-Woods triumvirate of 2008. This is, to say the least, a step in the right direction to remedying the talent shortage that currently represents Wake's largest problem.