FanPost

Article (with numbazzzzzzz) on the effects of coaching from FSH

Link.

Summary: results (based on F/+) of each individual season by each team from 2006-2012 is charted and compared to expectations based on recruiting data from the previous 4 years.

Note: I keep referencing F/+ in my notes, so here's a brief explanation. The problem with analyzing football in any given year is the relative lack of data: each team only plays 12-14 games, which is not enough to build a reputable data set. F/+ attempts to get around this by - essentially - measuring how a team performs on individual plays that are then weighted based on quality of opponent, thus increasing the data points available to get a more accurate picture. What this means in regard to us is basically that F/+ typically undersells a Grobe team for two reasons inherent to his coaching philosophy: 1) he typically becomes conservative on offense with a lead earlier than other coaches, and 2) his defensive schemes typically are of the bend-don't-break mentality, which will usually give up more yards than a more aggressive defense in most areas of the field.

Wake Forest under Jim Grobe

2006: 2.25 4-year recruiting average (-19% vs. overall recruiting average), +13% above expectations, +1.11 standard deviations

2007: 2.25 (-19%), +10%, +0.80

2008: 2.30 (-17%), +14%, +1.19

2009: 2.38 (-15%), +8%, +0.66

2010: 2.43 (-13%), -17%, -1.46

2011: 2.49 (-11%), -2%, -0.20

2012: 2.51 (-10%), -20%, -1.79

Average: 2.37 (-15%), +1%, +.04

And just for the record, here are the top 5 and bottom 5 seasons over this time frame:

1) 2012 Kansas State - Bill Snyder: 2.02 (-28%), +36%, +3.02

2) 2007 West Virginia - Rich Rodriguez: 2.53 (-9%), +30%, +2.55

3) 2006 Louisville - Bobby Petrino: 2.47 (-11%), +28%, +2.38

4) 2007 Cincinnati - Brian Kelly: 2.08 (-25%), +28%, +2.38

5) 2011 Alabama - Nick Saban: 3.63 (+30%), +28%, +2.37

*****

5) 2012 Auburn - Gene Chizik: 3.47 (+25%), -31%, -2.56

4) 2008 Washington - Ty Willingham: 2.85 (+2%), -33%, 2.77

3) 2012 Colorado - Jon Embree: 2.57 (-8%), -37%, -3.14

2) 2008 Washington State - Paul Wulff: 2.49 (-11%), -38%, -3.18

1) 2009 Washington State - Paul Wulff: 2.55 (-9%), -38%, -3.22

*****

Thoughts? Aside from the obligatory "Bill Snyder is a wizard!"?

The content of FanPosts is not necessarily the opinions, thoughts or beliefs of Blogger So Dear.

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