Well, it's official: we can no longer win an ACC tie-in. There are eight ACC tie-ins. Six are going to the five teams with 7+ wins and GT with 6. That leaves two tie-ins. There are four teams just one win away from eligibility (Pitt, BC, Syracuse, Maryland).
Two weekends from now brings us BC @ Maryland and Pitt @ Syracuse (BC also plays Syracuse the week after). I'm not a mathematician, but at least two of these teams are going to be bowl eligible as a matter of fact. That's not even considering the other games they play which may boost them to 7+ wins. It's also not even considering UNC, which is 4-5 and has games against Pitt, Old Dominion, and Duke.
Any way you swing it, the only way we get an ACC tie-in is if some bowl decides to invite us over another 6-6 ACC team (unlikely).
So, let's pretend that we hit 6-6 after all, and turn our attention to at-large bids. I hadn't been including these in the earlier segments because it was much easier to figure out the ACC picture. I'm not going to go into depth here because there are still too many unknowns.
There are 35 bowl games, making room for 70 teams. There are 58 bowl-eligible teams, leaving 12 slots. There are 14 teams one win away, and another 14 (including Wake) two wins away. So, we're in the bottom half of the 28 teams vying for 12 slots.
It don't look good. The best we can do is hit 6-6 and hope that a bowl will take even a small ACC team over another 6-6 program.
We face our first literal "must win" hosting Duke next week. Hopefully we'll rebound like we did after the Clemson shellacking. Go Deacs!