Since it is Selection Sunday and nearly everybody has rolled out their own Bracketology I decided to go ahead and do BSD's first ever Selection Sunday Bracketology.
This obviously has been posted before the games today have taken place and the biggest game is Xavier-St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic 10 final. Xavier has most likely punched their ticket to the Dance by making it to the final, but if Andrew Nicholson can lead the Bonnies to a win today then the bubble will shrink by one. Whether that team is N.C. State, Seton Hall, Drexel, or Mississippi State will be seen after the jump (or at least in BSD's opinion of who would be bumped).
As I type this Joe Lunardi has the Last Four in as South Florida, N.C. State, Seton Hall and either Drexel/Saint Bonaventure. His Last Four out are Washington, Mississippi State, Iona and Miami.
The other games today may have some potential bearing on the seeds and I will update it as it sees fit. For the first post I am assuming that UNC, Kentucky, Xavier will win. The Michigan State/Ohio State game is a toss-up and I will mark it that way on the bracket. (of course as I type this Vandy, FSU and Saint Bonaventure are all leading haha).
Regardless of whether UNC or UK wins I expect them to both get #1 seeds. Syracuse should get another #1 seed, and then there is a healthy debate as to whether it will go to the Ohio State/Michigan State winner, or perhaps Kansas. I'm going with the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan State as the last #1 seed.
3:30 Update: UK keeps their #1 overall seed despite a loss to Vanderbilt. UNC drops to the #3 overall 1-seed and Syracuse moves into the #2 overall seed after a Tar Heel loss to Florida State.
Saint Bonaventure knocks off Xavier to pop a bubble and enters as a No. 13 seed. This knocks Drexel off of my bubble (changed it from Washington after doing some research). Procedural changes are below from the three championship games
- FSU moves to the #1 4-seed from the #4 4-seed (I could see them getting a weak 3-seed though).
- Vandy moves to a 5-seed from a 4-seed, bumping Indiana from a 4-seed to a 5-seed.
- Belmont moves to a 14-seed to a 13-seed and still avoids the first four.
- First Four matchups become (12's) California v. South Florida (13's) N.C. State v. Seton Hall (Final Four In according to my bracket).
- Michigan State grabs the #4 1-seed and Ohio State grabs the #3 2-seed. Moved Mizzou to #1 2-seed.
For all the automatic bids, at-large predictions, and what seed they fall (I'm not going to match them up in bracket format because that's just too much guess-work).
Bracket score according to The Bracket Project:
Bottom Line: Got 67/68 teams right but I did a horrible job of seeding them.
#1 seeds- Kentucky(2), Syracuse(4), North Carolina(6), Michigan State(8)
#2 seeds- Missouri(10), Duke(12), Ohio State(14), Kansas(16)
#3 seeds- Baylor(18), Marquette(20), Michigan(21), Georgetown(23)
#4 seeds- Florida State(24), Louisville(26), Wisconsin(28), Vanderbilt(30)
#5 seeds- Indiana(31), Murray State(32), Wichita State(34), Florida (34)
#6 seeds- Creighton(34), New Mexico(35), Temple(36), Notre Dame(37)
#7 seeds- Cincinnati(38), San Diego State(39), UNLV(40), St. Marys(42)
#8 seeds- Iowa State(44), Gonzaga(45), Connecticut(46), Memphis(48)
#9 seeds- Kansas State(49), Purdue(50), Virginia(51), Saint Louis(53)
#10 seeds- West Virginia(55), Alabama(56), Harvard(56), Southern Mississippi(57),
#11 seeds- Xavier(58), Colorado State(60), Virginia Commonwealth(61), Long Beach State(62)
#12 seeds- Texas(63), Brigham Young(63), Belmont(63), California(90) vs. South Florida(91) (First Four Matchup)
#13 seeds- Saint Bonaventure(64), Colorado(64), Davidson(66), N.C. State vs. Seton Hall (First Four Matchup)
#14 seeds- Ohio(67), South Dakota State(69), Montana(70), New Mexico State(71)
#15 seeds- Detroit(73), Loyola (MD)(75), Long Island(76), Lehigh(78)
#16 seeds- Lamar(80), UNC-Asheville(82), Mississippi Valley State(84) vs. Western Kentucky(86), Norfolk State(87) vs. Vermont(89)(First Four matchup)
*Bold indicates Conference Tournament Champion.
**Italics indicates "First Four" matchup
Notes: Kentucky is the #1 overall seed followed by Syracuse, UNC and the Big Ten Champion. I tried to go strongest to weakest seed, but after around the 3-4 seeds it got rather difficult so it was more of a guideline than the rule.
Last Four In: California, N.C. State, South Florida, Seton Hall,
Washington (If St. Bonaventure beats Xavier then Washington is out of the tournament).
Last Four Out: Drexel, Washington, Iona, Mississippi State,
Northwestern (these teams have been eliminated from contention and cannot move into my bracket at this point).
Breakdown by Conference
Big East (10)- (1) Syracuse, (2) Marquette, (3) Georgetown, (4) Louisville, (5) West Virginia, (6) Connecticut, (7) Seton Hall, (8) Cincinnati, (9) South Florida, (10) Notre Dame
Big Ten (6)- (11) Michigan State, (12) Ohio State, (13) Michigan, (14) Indiana, (15) Wisconsin, (16) Purdue
Big 12 (6)- (17) Kansas, (18) Baylor, (19) Texas, (20) Missouri, (21) Iowa State, (22) Kansas State
ACC (5)- (23) Duke, (24) North Carolina, (25) Florida State, (26) Virginia, (27) N.C. State
SEC (4) - (28) Kentucky, (29) Vanderbilt, (30) Florida, (31) Alabama
Mountain West (4)- (32) UNLV, (33) SDSU, (34) New Mexico, (35) Colorado State
Atlantic 10 (4)- (36)Xavier, (37) Saint Louis, (38) Temple, (39) Saint Bonaventure
WCC (3)- (40) St. Marys, (41) Gonzaga, (42) Brigham Young
Pac-12 (2)- (43) Colorado, (444) California
MVC (2)- (45) Creighton, (46) Wichita State
Conference USA (2)- (47) Memphis, (48) Southern Mississippi
CAA (1)- (49) Virginia Commonwealth,
Other Automatic Bids: (50) Detroit, (51) Lehigh, (52) LIU, (53) UNC-Asheville, (54) Western Kentucky, (55) Mississippi Valley State, (56) Norfolk State, (57) Vermont, (58) Lamar, (59) Loyola (MD), (60) Ohio, (61) Montana, (62) New Mexico State, (63) South Dakota State, (64) Belmont, (65) Davidson, (66) Harvard, (67) Murray State, (68) Long Beach State
Whew...now that I'm done I'm sure I messed something up, so if you see anything that is out of the ordinary, or something that doesn't add up let me know. This is my first attempt ever at a Bracketology and it is not that easy to construct or choose the last teams in. I'm also sure that people disagree over my picks and I will do my best to explain why I have the teams in there that I do if challenged.
This page will be updated throughout the day as the championships finish up as well, so stay tuned and chat about the picks/include your own!
Page has been updated as of 3:30 to include St. Bonaventure and take into account the UK/UNC losses. I believe this loss bumps Drexel out of the mix and they are the 69th team. The final update will take place to give either Ohio State or Michigan State the final #1 seed. My final team into the field was Washington (and if St. Bonaventure upsets Xavier then they will be bumped out of the field), but I could easily see Iona, Drexel, or maybe even Northwestern sneaking in there.
The bracket is now finalized with the Michigan State win over Ohio State. The field of 68 according to BSD is set in stone and this is how it will remain. We will do a postmortem either tonight or tomorrow morning to see how we did.
Make this the place you tune in to discuss the brackets as they are unveiled.