Wake Forest vs. NC State Preview

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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-11, 2-6) will travel down I-40 and take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack (16-7,5-3) on Saturday afternoon at 1:00 in the RBC Center. The Deacs will look to rebound from their embarrassing loss to the Wolfpack in mid-January.

The Deacs opened up as 13 point underdogs and the line has since risen to 14.

The Game is on ESPN3 and ACC Network.

We'll be here tomorrow on the game thread. Stop on by, and enjoy the game with us. I'd also recommend reading our coffee table talk. I felt that it went in a great direction and we all gave very informed opinions.

Below the jump I'll provide some stats and analysis. As always, please feel free to leave comments and let's cheer on the Deacs!

Category Offense Defense D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency 109.3 50 96.2 93 100.4
Adj. Tempo 68.6 85 66.7
Four Factors
Effective FG%: 51.5 79 47.8 128 49.0
Turnover %: 19.4 100 19.4 240 20.7
Off. Reb. %: 36.5 42 30.0 80 32.3
FTA/FGA: 34.8 214 32.5 87 36.5
Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 35.7 107 35.7 232 34.3
2P%: 50.8 71 45.0 75 47.8
FT%: 73.7 43 70.2 249 68.9
Block%: 7.8 77 11.3 71 9.3
Steal%: 10.2 227 10.7 98 9.7
Style Components
3PA/FGA: 26.8 306 32.7 169 32.9
A/FGM: 62.8 16 43.3 10 53.7
Defensive Fingerprint: Mostly Man
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers: 22.3 293 29.6 99 27.5
2-Pointers: 57.8 42 51.2 205 52.1
Free Throws: 19.9 195 19.3 222 20.4
Strength of Schedule
Components: 102.0 96 99.4 106 100.4
Overall: .5647 94 .5000
Non-conference: .5299 150 .5000
Personnel
Bench Minutes: 25.7% 295 31.1%
Experience: 1.87 yrs 104 1.65
Effective Height: +1.8 51 0.0
Average Height: 77.8" 27

76.5"

Mark Gottfried has been impressive during his first year in Raleigh. In addition to signing a top-5 recruiting class in the nation, he has already eclipsed the Wolfpack's win total from last season. His team relies heavily on his forwards, as is evident by the percentage of points coming from 2 point field goals. This should make sense considering that Williams, Leslie , and Howell are all excellent players. Scott Wood is their only player who can make 3's at a respectable rate. In addition to their forwards being able to score efficiently they are also above average offensive and defensive rebounders.

State's man to man defense should cause the Deacs some serious problems given how athletic their team is. One of State's weaknesses is their depth as their bench provides only 25% of total minutes, which is 5% below the national average. Unfortunately for our Deacs, depth is one of our many weaknesses as well. Another one of State's weaknesses is their perimeter defense, which can certainly be one of our strength's. If CJ, Chase, Travis, and Nikkita can get knock down some perimeter shots, then we absolutely have a chance to be very competitive in this game.

NC State Projected Starting Lineup

Lorenzo Brown

Scott Wood

C.J. Williams

C.J.Leslie

Richard Howell

Wake Forest Projected Starting Lineup

Tony Chennault

CJ Harris

Travis McKie

Nikita Mescheriakov

Ty Walker

GAME STATISTICS
Player GP MIN PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
Scott Wood 22 31.2 13.1 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 .458 1.000 .433
C.J. Leslie 20 26.7 12.8 6.3 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.3 .505 .619 .250
C.J. Williams 23 31.7 11.8 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.4 1.4 .525 .810 .364
Lorenzo Brown 23 33.0 11.7 4.3 6.7 1.9 0.5 3.3 .453 .747 .333
Richard Howell 23 26.4 11.6 9.3 1.2 1.0 0.4 2.1 .517 .707 .000
DeShawn Painter 23 20.8 7.1 4.9 0.4 0.2 0.7 1.0 .451 .721 .000
Alex Johnson 23 19.5 4.6 1.9 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.7 .330 .742 .277
Tyler Harris 13 9.2 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 .394 .625 .400
Jordan Vandenberg 7 11.9 2.0 2.7 0.9 0.0 0.7 0.6 .875 .000 .000
Kendall Smith 5 2.2 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 .667 .667 .000
Thomas de Thaey 15 6.7 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 .250 .750 .154
Staats Battle 5 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 .333 .000 .333
Jaqawn Raymond 10 2.8 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 .222 .000 .222
Jay Lewis 2 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 .000 .000 .000
Ben Amos 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .000 .000 .000
Patrick Johnson 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .000 .000 .000
Totals 23 -- 74 37 17 7 4 13 .467 .737 .357

Final Thoughts

I really believe that we are going to play very well tomorrow. It will be a far cry from what we saw in the Joel on January 14th. I believe we will be able to take advantage of State's below average 3 point shooting and remain competitive down to the wire. If we are forced to foul in the final minute, I don't like our chances, because Scott Wood had literally not missed a free throw all season.

Ultimately I believe State will take us lightly and the Deacs will come out strong, but State's athleticism will be too much for our Deacs and we will lose by 10. It will mark our 4th loss in a row and we will likely lose at Virginia on the 8th. After that, though, the Deacs play Clemson and Georgia Tech in back-to-back home games, which are two winnable games.

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CP3 Wake Jordans

Hopefully breaking out these kicks tomorrow gives our Deacs a boost.

Final Prediction

75-65 Wolfpack

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