Duke Vs. Wake Preview
by Robert Reinhard on Feb 27, 2012 6:27 PM EST
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February 28
9:00 p.m.
ESPNU
On February 28, the Duke Blue Devils will travel to Winston-Salem to take on our Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Duke will be looking to win its final two games against Wake Forest and North Carolina, respectively, to win the ACC Regular Season Championship and make a legitimate case to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Deacs are coming off their most impressive game of the season. The 29 point victory over Boston College was Wake's biggest victory of the season and was its second win in the past three games.
Wake looks to ruin Duke's run at an ACC Title and defeat the Blue Devils for the first time since 2009. We hope to see you all at The Joel tomorrow night!
| Category | Offense | Defense | D-I Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. Efficiency | 119.3 4 | 94.2 55 | 100.8 | |
| Adj. Tempo | 68.3 74 | 66.3 | ||
| Four Factors | ||||
| Effective FG%: | 53.9 19 | 47.1 101 | 49.0 | |
| Turnover %: | 17.7 33 | 19.1 240 | 20.4 | |
| Off. Reb. %: | 35.7 56 | 31.9 160 | 32.1 | |
| FTA/FGA: | 46.3 10 | 32.4 83 | 36.5 | |
| Miscellaneous Components | ||||
| 3P%: | 38.7 24 | 31.1 44 | 34.3 | |
| 2P%: | 51.4 48 | 47.2 156 | 47.8 | |
| FT%: | 69.5 161 | 67.6 101 | 69.1 | |
| Block%: | 7.7 69 | 8.9 177 | 9.2 | |
| Steal%: | 8.7 86 | 9.0 218 | 9.7 | |
| Style Components | ||||
| 3PA/FGA: | 38.3 56 | 24.1 2 | 32.9 | |
| A/FGM: | 48.6 290 | 43.8 11 | 53.7 | |
| Defensive Fingerprint: | Mostly Man | |||
| Point Distribution (% of total points) | ||||
| 3-Pointers: | 31.7 75 | 19.4 339 | 27.5 | |
| 2-Pointers: | 45.3 317 | 61.8 2 | 52.0 | |
| Free Throws: | 23.0 43 | 18.9 245 | 20.4 | |
| Strength of Schedule | ||||
| Components: | 106.1 5 | 96.3 5 | 100.8 | |
| Overall: | .7290 5 | .5000 | ||
| Non-conference: | .7272 14 | .5000 | ||
| Personnel | ||||
| Bench Minutes: | 29.0% 216 | 30.7% | ||
| Experience: | 1.52 yrs 221 | 1.66 | ||
| Effective Height: | +5.1 2 | 0.0 | ||
| Average Height: | 77.6" 34 |
76.5" |
||
Duke's Strengths
Duke is the fourth-most offensively efficient team in the nation, as they average 1.193 points per possession. They do this because they have an effective field goal percentage of 53.9, which is nearly 5 percent higher than the national average. The Blue Devils are also fantastic at getting to the foul line (shocking). They attempt 46.3 free throws for every 100 field goals they attempt, which is good for 10th nationally. They also have such an efficient number of points per possession because they don't have many empty possessions. They only turn it over 17.7 percent of the time, which ranks them 33rd nationally, meaning they are in the top 10 percent in the nation. Fantastic perimeter plays like Austin Rivers, Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins allow them to be so successful in these areas.
Duke's Weaknesses
This section is going to require some nitpicking. Teams ranked No. 3 in the country typically don't have too many weaknesses. Their biggest weakness is their inability to force turnovers, specifically by stealing the ball. They are below average at forcing turnovers and stealing the basketball. Nationally, teams turn others over at a rate of 20.4 percent. Duke only does this at a rate of 19.1 percent, which is 240th best in the nation.
How Wake Matches Up
While Duke opponents typically do not score the majority of their points from behind the three-point line, the Deacs are going to have to be sharp from the perimeter to win the game. Chase Fischer and C.J. Harris will need to take care of this for the Deacs. It would also be huge if Carson Desrosiers could come in and hit a three. Duke is also about an average rebounding team, so we will need help from our bigs as well as Tony Chennault to get us extra possessions on the offensive end. Second chance opportunities will be absolutely critical.
| GAME STATISTICS | |||||||||||
| Player | GP | MIN | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TPG | FG% | FT% | 3P% |
| Austin Rivers | 29 | 32.7 | 15.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 2.3 | .443 | .649 | .402 |
| Seth Curry | 29 | 30.1 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.2 | .445 | .880 | .384 |
| Ryan Kelly | 29 | 25.7 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | .450 | .806 | .409 |
| Mason Plumlee | 29 | 28.4 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.1 | .556 | .487 | .000 |
| Andre Dawkins | 29 | 23.5 | 9.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | .424 | .739 | .414 |
| Miles Plumlee | 29 | 19.4 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | .615 | .631 | .000 |
| Quinn Cook | 28 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | .396 | .810 | .245 |
| Tyler Thornton | 29 | 19.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | .389 | .711 | .365 |
| Josh Hairston | 25 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | .439 | .667 | .000 |
| Michael Gbinije | 16 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | .579 | 1.000 | .444 |
| Todd Zafirovski | 5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Totals | 29 | -- | 79 | 37 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 12 | .465 | .695 | .387 |
Projected Starters
Wake Forest
Tony Chennault
C.J. Harris
Chase Fischer
Duke
Austin Rivers
Seth Curry
Tyler Thorton
Prediction
Duke 84-64
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Hope we can make it entertaining. Spread is 13.5. Hopefully the energy from senior night and actually having some students in there will get us off to a fast start.
I'm just hoping maybe we turned the corner with regards to confidence
Seems like we had been getting down on ourselves a lot on the court (and understandably so).
Wake Forest '12
Mother So Dear
by RAJohnston on Feb 27, 2012 10:00 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I think we’ll come out with a lot of energy and keep it close in the first half. The Joel SHOULD be rockin and hopefully we carry that confidence from Saturday’s game into this game. But for us to have a shot in the end we’re really going to have to shoot lights out in the second half (just like we did against BC) because playing hard and with energy isn’t nearly enough to beat the dookies.
I'll go ahead and point out...
… this game means (virtually) nothing to Duke from a standings perspective. If they win, they still (likely) have to beat Carolina on the weekend to claim a solo championship. If they lose, they still (likely) have to beat Carolina on the weekend to claim a joint championship and the top seed in the ACC Tournament.
In short, even if we beat Duke, it likely doesn’t derail their chances at the ACC regular season championship – that dream will occur or not when they play this weekend.
Also, duck Fuke.
And Duke can’t be thrilled about how it played against VT. I think they’ll be taking this game pretty seriously.
I’m still pretty amazed at how many road win Duke has. Their only two conference losses are at Cameron …
Bah da da da da da da da, Go Deacs.
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Funny...
I’m always amazed by the amount of road wins Duke doesn’t have. This year, they played two non-conference road games (Coach K going crazy it seems) and lost both. Admittedly, one of those games was out of Duke’s hands concerning scheduling (OSU was ACC-B10/12/whatever).
In fact, here’s a list of the number of non-conference true road games Duke has played in the last 11 years:
2001-02: 1 (Michigan – W)
2002-03: 2 (N.C. A&T – W, St. John’s – W)
2003-04: 2 (Michigan St. – W, Georgetown – W)
2004-05: 1 (St. John’s – W)
2005-06: 4 (Indiana – W, UNC-Greensboro – W, Georgetown – L, Temple – W)
2006-07: 1 (St. John’s – W)
2007-08: 1 (Temple – W)
2008-09: 3 (Purdue – W, Michigan – L, St. John’s – W)
2009-10: 2 (Wisconsin – L, Georgetown – L)
2010-11: 2 (UNC-Greensboro – W, St. John’s – L)
2011-12: 2 (Ohio State – L, Temple – L)
We get a sum of 21 games over 11 seasons. Of these, five were in the ACC-Big 10/12/whatever Challenge.
The St. John’s games were played in Madison Square Garden, where Duke tries to play a game every year and where they (essentially) have a home court advantage. The N.C. A&T game was played at Greensboro Coliseum, not at the Aggies’ normal venue. Both UNC-Greensboro games were played in the Greensboro Coliseum as well (although the Spartans do play their home games there). The Temple games were played in the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, not Temple’s usual coliseum. The Georgetown games were at the Verizon Center in Washington, which is where the Hoyas normally play.
None of these venues is on the campus of the schools in question. In fact, excluding the ACC-Big 10/12/whatever Challenge, the only true road non-conference games that Duke has scheduled are against Michigan in Ann Arbor. In 11 years.
Wake, for the record, has played 21 such games in the past 11 years (Arkansas in 2001-02, Kansas in 2001-02, Navy in 2001-02, Richmond in 2002-03, Southern Methodist in 2003-04, Texas in 2003-04, Temple in 2004-05, New Mexico in 2004-05, Bucknell in 2006-07, Air Force in 2006-07, Vanderbilt in 2007-08, Georgia in 2007-08, Richmond in 2008-09, East Carolina in 2008-09, BYU in 2008-09, Gonzaga in 2009-10, UNC-Wilmington in 2009-10, Xavier in 2010-11, Richmond in 2010-11, High Point in 2011-12, and Seton Hall in 2011-12). Note, this list excludes games against opponents playing in home cities in off-campus arenas.
I might also add that Duke has consistently played more difficult non-conference schedules according to computer metrics over this period. Make of that what you will.
Good numbers, I was talking about conference, specifically, though. Probably should have clarified.
Bah da da da da da da da, Go Deacs.
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