We have a Q and A coming with our friends over at BCInterruption, but this post is a bit of a pointed response to an article that I saw on their blog earlier today that examined whether or not a BC win would be considered an "upset". It was a very well written article, with the conclusion that it would not be an upset if Boston College defeated the Deacs at home.
My response is a bit on the fence, and that is because I have no idea what to expect this weekend. Based on what I have seen this year I think that Wake Forest is a mediocre team in the ACC, and I think that Boston College is a pretty bad team in the ACC. BC has had a fair amount of injuries, specifically to Montel Harris (who has a shot at becoming the ACC's career rushing leader this year), and because of that, it is difficult to judge.
It is also really hard to tell how good the Deacs are. We had a HUGE let down @ Syracuse after leading big in the 2nd half. There are excuses to be had there with regards to the Tanner Price injury, but regardless, that is a game that "good" teams will not, and should not lose. We then decimated N.C. State, only to have them come back and have a shot to tie the game in the 4th quarter. It is clear that N.C State is not a very good team this year either. Gardner-Webb was an easy win, but we looked pretty poor at times in the first quarter, particularly in our pass defense (which ranks 47th in the country, but 72nd if you take out all FCS teams from scheduling).
Boston College suffered an 0-3 start before getting their first win in dominating fashion over UMass this past weekend. Despite being an FCS team, UMass is fairly respected, especially by Sagarin, and the 45-17 win over the Minutemen is nothing to scoff at. Losing to Duke in Chestnut Hill is though. Northwestern and UCF will likely prove to be bowl teams by the end of the year, but the losses were not pretty for the Eagles. Northwestern defeated them with a backup quarterback, and The Golden Knights destroyed them 30-3. Not the start that most BC fans were looking for by any stretch of the imagination.
Montel Harris played against UMass, and is a huge concern for our rush defense. Much has been made by Wake fans about our rush defense wearing down in the 2nd half, but if you look at the numbers, the Deacs rank 23rd in 2nd half rush yards (42 attempts for 156 yards), and 53 of those game on one run in the Syracuse game. In the first half, our rush defense has been dominant (8th in the country), allowing just 96 yards on 39 rushes through 3 games. I am eager to see how Harris will fare against our defense. It is certainly true that we have not faced a really good running back yet (and Montel Harris is a very good running back), but I want to see what our boys can do against a man across from them.
Boston College ranks 83rd in the country in pass defense, and I expect Tanner Price to tear up their secondary if the wind gusts aren't too brutal. After ranking first in the country last year in rush defense, the Eagles have fallen all the way to 79th through 3 games. If we can get Josh Harris and Brandon Pendergrass working on the same page as Tanner Price, our offense should have a field day.
All in all, these are just numbers, and they play the game on the field on Saturday. The line for the game opened at -1 in favor of BC, but as of 2:30 EST today (Wed.), WFU is favored by -2.5 points. I expect it to get around 3-4 before kickoff at 12:30 though. Based on results so far this year, this is a game that I really think Wake Forest should win. BC and Wake almost always play close games, and this year will likely be no different. BC has the homefield advantage, and should be ready to get back out there after their first win of the season. I expect a touchdown game, the team that scores last taking home the win.