Today I came across an article on our sister site Tomahawk Nation, that is essentially a "gamblers" take on any given team. I would encourage everybody to take a look after the jump and come up what I believe to be a much better win forecast for Wake Forest football this year.
I will post my own results in a day or so to give everybody a look at my thoughts without influencing their own thoughts on each game.
Click through the jump for everything you need to know about a more accurate way to predict a teams season. Thanks to Tomahawk Nation for the article idea.
The following quote blocks are excerpts from this Tomahawk Nation article last year about a better way to predict how a team will do in any given year. The main theory is assigning percentages to each game based on the line (or in this case, your predicted line for each game), rather than assigning just "win" or "loss" to each game:
|Point Spread||Money Line|
|-18/ -18.5/ -19/ -19.5||-740/+740|
You might be a bit lost right now, but that's okay. Here's the idea. A 3 point underdog, has a moneyline value of "+145". In numerical terms, that comes out to 245, because you add 100. Still with me? If not, it's okay. Keep following. To determine a team's projected winning percentage, based on the vegas line, simply take the moneyline value in numerical terms, and divide it into one.
- Team A is favored over Team B by 3 points.
- Thus, Team B is an underdog of 3 points.
- Team B can be referred to as +3
- Using the chart above, we can see that an underdog of +3 is "+145" moneyline value.
- Remember to add 100 to the "145", to get "245".
- Then, divide 100 (always 100 here) by 245.
- 100/245= 0.408, which we will round to 0.41
- 0.41 is the same thing as 41%.
- So, Team B (the 3 point underdog) has a 41% chance of winning this game.
If Team B has a 41% chance of winning, then Team A must have a 59% chance of winning (because these numbers must add up to 100%)