ACC 5 Year Recruiting Analysis (Part 1 of sorts)
by RAJohnston on Feb 22, 2011 2:10 AM EST
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In this article Blogger So Dear takes a look at basketball recruiting in the ACC over the past four years, and into next year. Recruiting has been a hot topic among Wake Forest fans since Jeff Bzdelik has taken over. So far he has landed three 3-star recruits, but we are in the running for a lot of 2012 4-5 star recruits, and hopefully we will land a couple of them.
Since the Deacs have had a lot of success recently recruiting, I want to see how recruiting 3 star players, as opposed to primarily 4-5 star players could affect us if we do not land the "better players" as judged by the scouts on ESPN, Rivals.com, and Scout.com
Click through the jump for a table with ACC recruiting results in the past and next year.
- As you can see from the chart, 3-stars are the most prevalent type of recruit that the ACC lands. 4-stars are next, and 5-stars are the rarest. This is exactly what you would expect to find.
- Duke and UNC lead the ACC with six 5-stars in the 5 year period. Boston College, Maryland, Virginia, and Virginia Tech have yet to land a 5-star. Everybody else either has 3 (WFU, NCSU, GT, and FSU) or 1 (Miami, and Clemson).
- Boston College is the only school not to only land 3-stars during the time period.
- As for Wake Forest, we have landed seven 3 and 4 stars a piece to only three 5-stars. All three of those came in the 2008 recruiting class of Al-Farouq Aminu, Tony Woods, and Ty Walker.
If the classes were to be ranked purely on recruiting stars, this is how it would shape up: (the way I did this was to assign 1 point for a 5-star, 2 points for a 4-star, and 3 points for 3-star, then divide by the number of recruits they have had during that time. The lowest average has the best recruiting star-wise during this time).
1. UNC (1.733)
2. Duke (1.812)
3. Georgia Tech (2.076)
4. Florida State (2.157)
5. Wake Forest (2.235)
6. N.C. State (2.375)
7. Clemson (2.642)
8. Maryland (2.647)
9. Miami (2.66)
10. Virginia (2.66)
11. Virginia Tech (2.705)
12. Boston College (3.00)
This essentially makes 4 tiers:
- UNC, Duke
- Georgia Tech, FSU, Wake, State
- Clemson, Maryland, Miami, UVA, VT
- Boston College
This is pretty much what I expected. There could also be sub tiers between GT/FSU, and Wake/NSCU, but you can draw the line where you want to.
Conclusion: My main point was to just take a look at recruiting, and see what kind of correlation there is between recruiting stars and winning. I am going to add records in tomorrow after I get some sleep to see how they stack up. Taking a precursory glance, there is certainly something to be said about recruiting "star players". UNC and Duke have both won national championships in the past 5 years, and GT/Wake/FSU have all seen success as well. I am eager to see how exactly the numbers will stack up, but for now y'all can just chew on these numbers.
Let me know what y'all think about this, and if you have any questions I will be glad to answer them. Comments are always welcome!
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I can't believe BC has had zero 4* or 5* recruits
Over that last 5 years
Blogger So Dear
"Meet me on the Quad at midnight" Skip Prosser
Yeah, and they have still found pretty good success.
I don’t think that is the model we want to go after, but it shows that it can be done with good coaching.
Interestingly enough they fired Al Skinner, and brought in Donahue (both good coaches)
Wake Forest '12
Mother So Dear
Caution
I want to urge some caution here. A definition of success is important to include in this analysis.
Different people will put different analysis on what that term means. You start by mentioning that Boston College has been successful. How do you define that success?
NCAA Tourney appearances since joining the conference? 4. Wake has 3
ACC Championships (0)
ACC highest finish - 3rd - Wake was 2ne twice in that same period
Sweet Sixteens – 1 Wake — 0
Is finishing in the middle of the ACC and making the Tournament every other year the standard of success?
This is a tough question to answer but one that I think needs to be explored before we doll out that term to descibe a program. Obviously, BC did not think that they were enjoying success since they got rid of Skinner.
As a side note, BC is a senior laden team this year. Trapani, Southern, Paris, Raji are all seniors. Jackson is a junior and is the only other player on BC that sees more than 25 minutes a game. It will be interesting to see what they are like next year with a nice recruiting class coming in.
It is successful for them, especially considering how "bad" their recruiting has been.
I wasn’t necessarily saying it was what we should strive for, but they have been competitive in one of the toughest conferences in the NCAA with those types of classes. Certainly not bad for a program of their stature where basketball is probably their 3rd sport (behind football and hockey).
Wake Forest '12
Mother So Dear
I think with recruiting not factored in we’re doing poorly. Not including this year, I go back to 2008-09 when we lost to Cleveland State and in our first ACC Tourney game after being ranked #1 in the country earlier. That was our “most successful” season of the past five years, and I hate remembering it. I think that’s more of what I meant.
I also think that Maryland would consider their team to be doing poorly as well, considering what they had come to expect under Gary Williams. However, I would agree with your statement that BC and VT consider their programs successful right now, while WF and GT would say no.
I think there's going to be another piece coming out of this
Looking at success and whatnot. I think that we can all agree that success can somewhat be objectively examined by using order of finish in the conference (since we’re comparing it across the ACC), and NCAA tournament appearances. I think that while advancing further in the NCAA tournament should be taken into account as well that it is difficult to pin that down on recruits since the tournament is at times a crapshoot (since it is in its essence just a one game shot and the better team loses sometimes).
Blogger So Dear
"Meet me on the Quad at midnight" Skip Prosser
Yeah I'm doing a follow up article of sorts, but probably won't get it done until tomorrow afternoon.
Slammed with classes, and just finished the preview for tonight.
Wake Forest '12
Mother So Dear
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