Wake Forest @ UNC Game Preview

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-17, 1-8) (0-7 Road, 255 KenPom)

@

North Carolina Tar Heels (18-6, 8-2) (11-0 Home, 11 KenPom)

8:00

TV: ACC Network (Raycom)

The Deacs head to Chapel Hill to take on the Tar Heels tonight at the Dean Dome at 8. The Heels are coming off a win at LittleJohn Coliseum. They are 11-2 in their past 13 games. The Deacs have lost 4 in a row, and 9 out of their last 10 games. It would be a minor miracle if Wake wins this one, but stranger things have certainly happened.

 

 

Overall

Category Offense Defense D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency 111.6 41 86.5 4 101.3
Adj. Tempo 73.6 10 67.1
Four Factors
Effective FG%: 50.2 111 45.9 49 49.1
Turnover %: 18.5 71 20.6 160 20.4
Off. Reb. %: 35.1 81 29.6 61 32.4
FTA/FGA: 40.3 111 25.6 4 37.9
Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 33.1 222 32.5 78 34.4
2P%: 50.4 76 44.3 51 47.8
FT%: 65.2 282 64.2 20 68.9
Block%: 6.3 13 13.0 29 9.2
Steal%: 9.7 199 8.9 205 9.5

 

  • The Tar Heels have improved tremendously since last year. They are very good on defense, and this can mainly be attributed to their heigh and ability to block a high percentage of shots. They do an excellent job of not fouling on defense (which is sometimes rare for teams that block a lot of shots). It helps that they have John Henson, Tyler Zeller, and Harrison Barnes in there to contest those shots.
  • Their offense isn't a slouch either. They are averaging 1.16 points per possession (46th in the country). They could improve their three point shooting, but shoot above 50% from two-pointers. Free throw shooting has been a problem at times, and that could hurt them down the stretch in some games. They do a good job of holding on to the ball, and also provide a good amount of second and third chance points.

 

Conference Only

Category Offense Defense D-I Avg
Efficiency 104.5 6 94.9 3 101.3
Tempo 71.7 1 67.1
Four Factors
Effective FG%: 48.4 7 47.1 4 49.1
Turnover %: 17.6 5 20.1 5 20.4
Off. Reb. %: 34.2 7 30.0 2 32.4
FTA/FGA: 38.3 2 25.3 1 37.9
Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 29.2 12 35.1 7 34.4
2P%: 50.0 1 43.6 3 47.8
FT%: 67.5 9 60.5 1 68.9
Block%: 8.4 3 12.9 3 9.2
Steal%: 10.0 8 8.9 7 9.5

 

  • KenPom has recently added a "Conference Only" tab, and I included this here for your enjoyment.
  • As you can see, They rank in the top half of almost every category, except for 3-point shooting, in which they are dead last. This is going to be a very tough game for the Deacs.
GAME STATISTICS
Player GP MIN PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
Tyler Zeller 24 27.0 14.3 7.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 .528 .750 .000
Harrison Barnes 24 27.3 13.4 5.5 1.4 0.6 0.4 2.0 .413 .714 .337
John Henson 24 24.3 11.3 8.8 0.8 0.6 2.9 2.1 .541 .393 .500
Dexter Strickland 24 25.2 8.2 3.2 2.0 1.4 0.0 1.5 .489 .643 .333
Leslie McDonald 23 14.5 7.0 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.7 .394 .696 .375
Reggie Bullock 23 14.9 6.7 3.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.5 .393 .550 .318
Justin Knox 24 15.6 5.7 3.8 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.3 .557 .731 .000
Kendall Marshall 24 19.3 5.2 1.4 5.0 1.1 0.0 1.9 .471 .706 .391
Larry Drew II 21 22.8 4.4 2.3 3.9 1.1 0.0 1.8 .384 .677 .207
Justin Watts 21 11.3 2.7 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 .375 .536 .316
Patrick Crouch 9 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 .571 .000 .500
Daniel Bolick 9 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 .250 1.000 .000
D.J. Johnston 9 1.7 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 .333 .000 .000
Van Hatchell 6 1.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 .000 .500 .000
David Dupont 9 1.7 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 .000 .000 .000
Stewart Cooper 9 1.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 .000 .000 .000
Totals 24 -- 78 42 15 7 5 14 .460 .652 .331

 

 

  • The Heels are led by Zeller, Barnes and Henson, which is going to be a huge problem for the Deacs tonight. Hopefully Ty Walker is back from his illness. Once again, I think that Carson and Ty should get some time out there together.
  • Kendall Marshall finally replaced Larry Drew at the PG lineup, which resulted in a transfer from Drew. I have wondered since the beginning of the year why it took Marshall so long to become the PG. I would love to ask Roy Williams about that if I got the chance to talk to him. Marshall has been doing very well, and is going to be a formidable guard to come up against in the tournament this year, as well as years to follow.
  • The reserves will probably get a lot of time for UNC tonight, so look for McDonald (who if I remember correctly killed us at the Joel last year), and Dexter Strickland to put up some good numbers for UNC.
Predictions:

KenPom- UNC 94 Wake 63 (99%)

Vegas- UNC (-22.5)

My Prediction- If I were using my formula to determine the score, it would come out to 79-65 UNC (adjusted for a 5 point home court advantage would push it to 84-65). I am going to use common sense, however, and say that UNC will win by a larger margin than that:

UNC-89
Wake-63

UNC is going to be way too much inside for Wake tonight. Their offense has been tremendously better with Marshall running the point. I expect the Heels to get off to a hot start and methodically/consistently wear us down from there. For Wake Forest to keep it under the spread, we will have to come out "like our hair is on fire", and we haven't been doing that recently. Since we are on the road, I think we may see another ridiculous halftime score (something along the lines of 45-24 perhaps). Coach Bzdelik has his work cut out for him tonight, but if Ari and CJ can have the same success that they had shooting last year, we could potentially cover. I think that keeping it within 20 would be a moderately good goal for tonight.

Comments are always welcome. Let's get out there and see some improvement in the effort department from Sunday. If we do that, we may see some results on the court as well. Go Deacs!
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