N.C. State vs. Wake Forest Game Preview

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N.C State Wolfpack (12-11, 2-7) (0-7 Road)

@

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-16, 1-8) (7-8 Home)

TV: ACC Network (Formerly Raycom)

Both teams are in a free fall right now. The loser of this game could easily get last place in the conference. It is hard to say which team has had the more disappointing year up to this point given the expectations of each fan base. It is safe to say that if Sidney Lowe loses this game, he will more than likely see his contract terminated (if it hasn't been already). Let's get us one Deacs!!!

Click through the jump for NCSU team and individual stats, plus predictions from around the web and myself.

 

 

Category Offense Defense D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency: 107.0 80 100.0 140 101.3
Adj. Tempo: 67.8 133 67.2
Four Factors
Effective FG%: 47.9 222 46.3 66 49.1
Turnover %: 18.4 63 16.8 324 20.4
Off. Reb. %: 36.0 55 35.7 287 32.4
FTA/FGA: 37.9 173 32.5 74 37.9
Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 33.2 223 32.2 75 34.5
2P%: 47.4 200 45.4 85 47.8
FT%: 69.8 143 71.4 287 68.9
Block%: 9.5 209 10.6 94 9.2
Steal%: 9.2 156 8.8 216 9.5

N.C State has struggled tremendously getting shots to fall this year, yet they rank 80th in the nation in adj. efficiency, at 1.07 ppp. That is extremely difficult to do, and is actually a testament to their offensive rebounding and ability to hold on to the ball, which is represented in the chart above as well. They protect the ball well, but don't get a lot of steals. They also rebound well offensively, but do not rebound well defensively. I haven't seen enough of State this year to know if it is related more to the philosophy of the team, or if they are just inconsistent (as young teams are). I would garner that it is a little bit of both.

The Pack are shooting just 33.2% from 3-pointers, and 47% from inside the arc. No successful team is ever going to shoot the ball that poorly. They are in the middle of the table in steal and block %, both offensively and defensively.

From John Gasaway

Through games of February 7, conference games only
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP)

                      W-L   Pace    PPP   Opp. PPP    EM
1.  Duke              8-1   68.9    1.12    0.92    +0.20
2.  North Carolina    7-1   71.1    1.08    0.95    +0.13
3.  Clemson           5-4   64.5    1.05    0.97    +0.08
4.  Virginia Tech     5-4   64.7    1.06    0.98    +0.08
5.  Maryland          5-4   69.4    1.03    0.98    +0.05
6.  Florida St.       6-3   68.6    0.98    0.95    +0.03
7.  Georgia Tech      3-6   68.8    0.97    0.96    +0.01
8.  Miami             3-6   63.6    1.03    1.07    -0.04
9.  Boston College    5-4   64.8    1.08    1.14    -0.06
10. Virginia          3-6   61.3    0.97    1.05    -0.08
11. NC State          2-7   67.7    1.00    1.13    -0.13
12. Wake Forest       1-7   70.5    0.88    1.17    -0.29

 

 

GAME STATISTICS
Player GP MIN PPG RPG APG SPG BPG TPG FG% FT% 3P%
Tracy Smith 13 27.2 13.8 5.5 1.0 0.4 0.7 1.9 .483 .667 .000
C.J. Leslie 22 23.8 10.7 7.3 0.8 0.8 1.5 2.0 .443 .545 .200
Ryan Harrow 21 23.2 10.5 1.5 3.4 0.8 0.1 1.6 .402 .937 .220
Scott Wood 23 31.9 9.9 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.9 .418 .903 .425
Lorenzo Brown 23 28.2 9.7 3.8 3.4 1.3 0.3 2.3 .427 .746 .300
Richard Howell 23 19.1 8.0 6.6 0.9 0.9 0.4 1.0 .525 .614 .333
DeShawn Painter 23 16.0 5.0 3.8 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.9 .464 .632 .000
Javier Gonzalez 23 19.8 4.7 1.7 2.3 0.7 0.0 1.3 .333 .806 .296
C.J. Williams 23 17.8 4.7 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 1.0 .474 .722 .200
Jordan Vandenberg 16 9.3 1.3 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 .571 .556 .000
Kendall Smith 9 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 .500 1.000 .000
Enrico Kufuor 6 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 .500 .000 .000
Jay Lewis 7 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 .000 .000 .000
Ben Amos 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .000 .000 .000
Totals 23 -- 71 38 14 6 5 13 .441 .698 .332

 

  • Tracy Smith has been very consistent in his play. He was forced to leave the Duke game early with an injury, but it wasn't that critical as the Devils romped the Pack. Smith showed his dominance in the game against us in Raleigh. Sidney Lowe will certainly look to exploit that weakness against us again. It will be a good determination of how Coach Bzdelik can adjust to things like this now that he is seeing these teams for the second time this season. If Smith can dominate us like Reggie Johnson did then we are in trouble. I think we need to play Carson as the primary defender some, and then have Ty at the 5 to provide the weak side help.
  • CJ Leslie was suspended for the Duke game for an infraction of team rules, but has been cleared to play against us by Coach Lowe. From what I have heard, Leslie has been coming along nicely on the court, but has some off the court issues that he needs to take care of, particularly maturity. State needs him if they are going to make any run at all for the NCAA Tournament, which is highly unlikely as of right now
  • Ryan Harrow and Lorenzo Brown have provided very similar numbers, and have proven to be good role players their freshman year in Raleigh. If they both stay and continue to develop then watch out for State in the future.
  • And as always, the sharpshooter that Wake needs to look out for at all times is Scott Wood, who is hitting on nearly 43% of his 3-pointers. He can certainly be a big-time game changer on Sunday if given the chance.
Predictions

KenPom- NCSU-79 Wake-72 (73%)

Vegas- Will update as game gets closer

My Prediction- Wake-76 State-75

My stats are telling me State 75-73, but I'm going to give the nod to Wake in this pillow fight. We saw significant improvement against Miami on Wednesday night. It was a heart-breaking loss, and I think that the guys really got out there and put in work in practice. Both teams are on free-falls, but I feel like we have a silver lining to look at in terms of getting better and improving, while State is feeling sorry for themselves for the year that they have had so far.

I think that Coach Bzdelik coaches these guys up, particularly inside and we get one at the Joel. JT Terrell is really coming in to his own, and I expect a big night from him (not necessarily numbers-wise, I mean doing all the little things that we need to do to win). I am also going to go out on a limb and say that Carson and Ty have a good showing against Tracy Smith. If we can get good games out of these three guys, and CJ continues what he has been doing since Tony Chennault got back, I think we are in business.

Go Deacs!

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