FanPost

Quantifying Jeff Bzdelik's Offensiveness

This was written largely because the "according to my eyeball test + I'm more optimistic than you" is a tired response that's neither grounded nor as proactive as many if not most Wake fans/alums want us to be towards our most important program, and because our crown jewel shouldn't be treated casually.

Let's analyze the evolution statistical swan dive this team has experienced as the season has progressed run its course, in order to credibly assess whether Coach Bzdelik has improved the team in any area.

1) TO%:
a1) During the first 7 games, TO% was 23%.
a2) During the following 7 games, TO% was 21.7%
a3) During our 5 most recent games, against ACC opponents, our TO% is 22% (good for worst in the ACC).

What's more, TO% isn't a reliable metric from which to measure improvements made by the coach. Looking at TO% on a game-by-game basis doesn't establish a reliable causal link between Bzdelik improving the team as the season's run its course, because TO%'s can be mitigated by players easily - players initially unused to playing a traditional point guard role (like Justin Gray in 2005-2006), whom moderate but don't eliminate their awful TO #'s as they settle into proxy PG roles & plateau the TO%.


2) APG:
a1) During the first seven games, APG was 13.1
a2) During the following seven games, APG was 10.
a3) During our 5 most recent games, against ACC opponents, APG is 9.4 (good for worst in the ACC).
3) FG%:
b1) During the first 7 games, FG% was 44.8%
b2) During the following 7 games, FG% was 44.8%
b3) During our 5 most recent games, against ACC opponents, our FG% is 35.6% (good for worst in the ACC).
4) 3FG%:
c1) During the first seven games, our 3FG% was 44.7%
c2) During the next seven games, our 3FG% was 35.7%
c3) During our most 5 most recent games, against ACC opponents, our 3FG% is 28% (good for second-worst in ACC play).
5) PPG:
d1) During the first 7 games, we averaged 72 points
d2) During the next 7 games, we averaged 69 points.
d3) During our games against ACC opponents, we're averaging 57 points (good for worst in the ACC).
6) Margin of Loss: It's understandable to widen some with play against better opponents, but certainly that's to be mitigated substantially if the coach has competently adjusted. E.g., if Bzdelik's adapted competently, the margin of loss can increase but shouldn't unreasonably. After stumbling to the end of the non-conf. schedule, our margin of loss has more than doubled from 12 points to losing by over 26 points per game, more than 6 times the margin of loss by the next worst ACC team, Miami.
7) RPG:
e1) During the first seven games we averaged 36 RPG.
e2) During the next seven games, we averaged 34 RPG.
e3) During our 5 most recent games, against ACC opponents, we're averaging 32 RPG (third-worst in the ACC).
8) Defense (Perhaps the Most Damning):
f1) Oppo. True Shooting Percentage (TS%)/Opponent Shooting Percentage If We Account for FT & 3FG:
i) During our first 7 games, opponents' TS% was 48.2%.
ii) During our next 7 games, opponents' TS% was 55.4%.
iii) During our 5 most recent games, against ACC opponents, opponents' TS% is 55.5% (good for second-worst in the ACC).
f2) Opponent FG%:
i) During the first seven games, opponents' FG% was 41.2%.
ii) During the next seven games, opponents' FG% was 46.8%
iii) During our 5 more recent games, against ACC opponents, opponents' FG% is 46.2% (good for second-worst in the ACC).
f3) Opponent 3FG%:
i) During the first 7 games, opponents' 3FG% was 31.8%.
ii) During the next 7 games, opponents' 3FG% was 39.4%
iii) During our 5 most recent games, against ACC opponents, opponents' 3FG% is 40.2% (good for second-worst in the ACC).
f4) Opponent RPG:
i) During the first seven games, oppo. RPG was 39.4.
ii) During the next seven games, oppo. RPG was 32.6
iii) During our 5 most recent games, against ACC oppo., oppo. RPG is 43.4 (good for worst in the ACC).

Taking Inventory of the Results: As the season ran its course against doormat mid-majors through the first 14 games of the season, our PPG dropped, our FG% remained the same, our 3FG% dropped, our RPG dropped, Oppo. TS% increased, Oppo. FG% increased, & Oppo. 3FG% increased. We have not improved in one single area in ACC play. Literally, among the most statistically significant categories, our TO% has plateaued & calcified into the worst in the ACC, and our oppo. RPG improved briefly in the second half of our weak non-conf. schedule, then ballooned again into the ACC's worst in conference play. We have regressed significantly in every other category as the season has worn on.

So is Bzdelik adapting competently & demonstrably improving the team as we enter the last 1/3 of the dumpster fire season? The results of a statistical analysis of the season in 1/3'ds reveals exactly what many of us knew intuitively in the first place. The season started badly during the first 7 games, got even worse, then got even worse. Other than a plateaued TO%, there are no tangible signs of improvement to speak of. Other than naiveté, a fuel most of us don't run on, this isn't good enough for Wake Forest fans/alums. We ought to demand more

The content of FanPosts is not necessarily the opinions, thoughts or beliefs of Blogger So Dear.

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