Let's talk ACC Tournament seeding

Seems like a good time for it after the events of last night.

 Duke (5) 11-2 23-4 
 Maryland 10-3 20-7 
 Virginia Tech 8-5 21-6 
 Florida St. 8-5 20-7 
 Wake Forest 8-5 18-7 
 Clemson 7-6 19-8 
 Georgia Tech 6-7 18-9 
 Virginia 5-8 14-12 
 Boston Coll. 5-8 14-13 
 Miami (FL) 4-9 18-9 
 N.C. State 3-10 15-13 
 North Carolina 3-10 14-14

 

So let's get this thing going. Where is Wake going to end up when it is all said and done? The Deacs got a lot of help with the VT loss yesterday, but could not get help from Clemson or UNC in their games against Maryland and FSU.

The Deacs are right in the hunt for that third/fourth seed, but a number of things could happen:

Win out

Obviously the toughest of the situations, but in this route, Wake would control its own destiny, finish at 11-5 and would be guaranteed at least the fourth seed. Probability: 12%

Win two out of three, Maryland loses out

Wake would get a bye here, but I would not see this happening at all. There is a chance. They play @VT, Duke and @UVA. The VT and Duke games are challenges and if somehow UVA would be able to get their act together, you never know. Probability: 2%

Win two out of three and beat FSU

I think Wake will beat UNC. I think Wake has a very good shot against Clemson, but the FSU one is the toughest game left. But if they can take care of business, they'd own the tiebreaker over the 'Noles, which would be huge. Probability: 12%

Win two out of three and VT loses two

This is of course if Wake wins against UNC and Clemson, what I would call the most likely of the Deacs' three game stretch. VT has to play Maryland, N.C. State and @ Georgia Tech. If VT loses two, they'd finish a game behind the Deacs. Wake made things tough on themselves with the loss to the Hokies because now VT owns the tiebreaker here (man I feel like I'm talking about the NFL all of a sudden). Probability: 14%

Beat Clemson and UNC, lose to FSU, but FSU loses other two

FSU plays Clemson, Wake and @ Miami. We've seen Miami pull out some good wins at their place and it'll be senior night, so FSU better not take Miami lightly in that last game of the season. Clemson has been extremely inconsistent though and I don't know how likely it is that the Tigers will be able to handle the 'Noles. Probability: 14%

Any other combination that still gets Wake a bye

There's some more things that could happen, like if somehow FSU were to lose out and Wake goes 1-2 (with the win over FSU) or VT loses out and Wake wins one. Not a great chance of either of those because you've got to give FSU and VT a little more credit than that, but it is the ACC Probability: 8%

No bye for Wake

Definitely a possibility. If Wake wins 2 of 3 and things don't go their way, or the Deacs finish 1-2 (or heaven forbid, 0-3) in the last three games, they'll be shut out. Probability: 38%

Obviously I'm not even close to an odds-maker, but Wake with a 62% chance of getting a bye seems about right to me. I really don't see Wake losing to UNC, and you've got to believe that with seeding on the line, in Ish, L.D. and Chas's last home game of their careers, that the Deacs will come out firing against Clemson (which has just one road win--N.C. State--in conference). So that would give them at least 2 of 3 with an outside shot at beating FSU too. But winning two leaves a lot to chance with the other two 8-5 teams and they could very easily make things rough on the Deacs.

Saturday's game is the first step and everything will start to make sense soon enough.

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