Pre-season NIT Team Preview: Virginia Commonwealth

With the win over Hampton last night, Wake Forest faces Virginia Commonwealth, who defeated Winthrop 67-54.

This will be a big test for the Baby Deacs, and it would be a huge boost of confidence if they could defeat the Rams and advance to Madison Square Garden next week. 

This preview may have more stats than actual analysis because I am running short on time due to classes and other conflicts. There should be enough up there to give the reader a good idea of what VCU brings to the table and is good at. Also....WELCOME BACK JAMIE SKEEN!

Click through the jump to check out VCU's roster and what they have done well this year so far.

VCU has been pretty good on offense and defense this year. Offensively, they are averaging 1.09 ppp (once again, anything over 1 is good). They are holding opponents to .968 ppp, which is also good, and better than the D1 average. They play a little slower than Wake, averaging 69 possessions per game, as opposed to Wake's 71, but both teams like to play quickly. In the four major factors offensively, VCU is well above the D1 average in eFG%, and slightly below it in turnovers and offensive rebounding %. A cause for concern tonight could be VCU's ability to force turnovers at a rate above the D1 average. That could also be misleading because of the two teams they have played so far (UNCG and Winthrop). Looks as if Wake could potentially exploit the Rams in the free throw department and make several trips to the line.

The Rams are shooting 40% on the year from 3-point land, which is obviously pretty good. They are also shooting a staggering 61% from inside the arc. This is what produces such a high eFG%. The fact that their 3PA/FGA is so high, along with a 40% shooting percentage from 3's is a huge boost as well. Surprisingly, VCU is not good at the free throw line. They will need to improve on that 60% as the year goes along. VCU ranks 10th in the country in A/FGM, which is usually the sign of a good offense. This ball movement leads to easy shots and a high eFG%. 

VCU Rams

BLUE RIBBON ANALYSIS

BACKCOURT: A
BENCH/DEPTH: B+
FRONTCOURT: B
INTANGIBLES: A-

COACH AND PROGRAM- Excerpt from Blue Ribbon

Shaka Smart can feel it, even if he doesn't know it. If he knows it, he's not telling. His first season as a head coach produced 27 wins and a five-game sweep of the College Basketball Invitational, but something seemed awkward.

Sure, there is a learning curve to coaching -- the clich} of the difference in making suggestions and making decisions. But VCU's season was like a boxing match in which it was ahead on all the judges' cards after eight rounds but eerily felt like it was behind.

"If you go strictly by numbers, we had a terrific year," Smart said. "Every CAA game we won was by double digits, and every loss except Northeastern was by three points, five points -- they were all close. We were right there."

So what is changing to alleviate that feeling?

"Our goals don't change -- a CAA championship and NCAA Tournament -- so that isn't different, but the fact that we have a year's worth of relationships and an understanding of how we do things is important," he said.

Schedule

Roster

Previous Game Box Score (along with projected starters)

Score Predictions (WFU opens @ -1...no idea how)

My Prediction- VCU-83 Wake-68 (1-1 on the season)

KenPom- VCU-77  Wake- 74 

ACCUScore- VCU-77 Wake-72 (projected box score below)

Wrap-Up

That wraps up the preview of the game tonight. I think it will be a tough one for the Deacs to handle. I am really excited to see if we can continue to improve. The atmosphere has to be better tonight because last night was atrocious. Good luck to Jamie Skeen in his return to Wake Forest as well! Go Deacs!!!