Pre-season NIT Team Preview: Virginia Commonwealth

                          Vcu-logo_medium

POINTS PER GAME

84.063rdOVERALL

REBOUNDS PER GAME

34.0218thOVERALL

ASSISTS PER GAME

23.513thOVERALL

FIELD GOAL PCT

.51648thOVERALL

 

 

 

 

With the win over Hampton last night, Wake Forest faces Virginia Commonwealth, who defeated Winthrop 67-54.

This will be a big test for the Baby Deacs, and it would be a huge boost of confidence if they could defeat the Rams and advance to Madison Square Garden next week. 

This preview may have more stats than actual analysis because I am running short on time due to classes and other conflicts. There should be enough up there to give the reader a good idea of what VCU brings to the table and is good at. Also....WELCOME BACK JAMIE SKEEN!

Click through the jump to check out VCU's roster and what they have done well this year so far.

Category Offense Defense D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency: 109.5 49 96.8 95 100.4
Adj. Tempo: 69.4 67 67.7
Four Factors
Effective FG%: 60.5 21 46.2 122 48.2
Turnover %: 20.4 133 23.8 77 21.4
Off. Reb. %: 30.5 173 36.7 213 32.4
FTA/FGA: 27.4 239 37.6 136 39.9

VCU has been pretty good on offense and defense this year. Offensively, they are averaging 1.09 ppp (once again, anything over 1 is good). They are holding opponents to .968 ppp, which is also good, and better than the D1 average. They play a little slower than Wake, averaging 69 possessions per game, as opposed to Wake's 71, but both teams like to play quickly. In the four major factors offensively, VCU is well above the D1 average in eFG%, and slightly below it in turnovers and offensive rebounding %. A cause for concern tonight could be VCU's ability to force turnovers at a rate above the D1 average. That could also be misleading because of the two teams they have played so far (UNCG and Winthrop). Looks as if Wake could potentially exploit the Rams in the free throw department and make several trips to the line.

 

Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 40.0 66 38.7 223 33.2
2P%: 60.9 19 41.9 89 47.4
FT%: 52.9 271 72.7 205 67.5
Block%: 7.2 103 15.1 59 9.8
Steal%: 8.8 131 12.9 65 9.9
Style Components
3PA/FGA: 44.4 38 26.5 58 33.9
A/FGM: 73.4 10 60.4 215 53.9
Defensive Fingerprint: Mostly Man  
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers: 39.3 41 25.7 161 27.3
2-Pointers: 50.0 156 51.4 135 50.8
Free Throws: 10.7 284 22.9 128

21.8

The Rams are shooting 40% on the year from 3-point land, which is obviously pretty good. They are also shooting a staggering 61% from inside the arc. This is what produces such a high eFG%. The fact that their 3PA/FGA is so high, along with a 40% shooting percentage from 3's is a huge boost as well. Surprisingly, VCU is not good at the free throw line. They will need to improve on that 60% as the year goes along. VCU ranks 10th in the country in A/FGM, which is usually the sign of a good offense. This ball movement leads to easy shots and a high eFG%. 

VCU Rams

Last Season 27-9 (.750)
Conference Record 11-7 (t-5th)
Starters Lost/Returning 1/4
Coach Shaka Smart (Kenyon College '99)
Record At School 27-9 (1 year)
Career Record 27-9 (1 year)
RPI Last 5 years 80-44-56-51-46

 

BLUE RIBBON ANALYSIS


BACKCOURT: A
BENCH/DEPTH: B+
FRONTCOURT: B
INTANGIBLES: A-

 

COACH AND PROGRAM- Excerpt from Blue Ribbon

 

Shaka Smart can feel it, even if he doesn't know it. If he knows it, he's not telling. His first season as a head coach produced 27 wins and a five-game sweep of the College Basketball Invitational, but something seemed awkward.

Sure, there is a learning curve to coaching -- the clich} of the difference in making suggestions and making decisions. But VCU's season was like a boxing match in which it was ahead on all the judges' cards after eight rounds but eerily felt like it was behind.

"If you go strictly by numbers, we had a terrific year," Smart said. "Every CAA game we won was by double digits, and every loss except Northeastern was by three points, five points -- they were all close. We were right there."

So what is changing to alleviate that feeling?

"Our goals don't change -- a CAA championship and NCAA Tournament -- so that isn't different, but the fact that we have a year's worth of relationships and an understanding of how we do things is important," he said.

Schedule

 Scores & Schedule
Date Opponent Result Tickets Audio/Video Video Highlights
  Fri, Nov 12 N.C. Greensboro W 101-86 -- -- --
  Mon, Nov 15 Winthrop W 67-54 -- -- --
 
Date Opponent Time Tickets Audio/Video Video Highlights
  Tue, Nov 16 at Wake Forest 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Wed, Dec 1 at South Florida 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Sat, Dec 4 William & Mary 12:00 pm -- -- --
  Wed, Dec 8 Virginia Military 7:30 pm -- -- --
  Sat, Dec 11 at Richmond 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Sat, Dec 18 Tulane 2:00 pm -- -- --
  Tue, Dec 21 at UAB 8:00 pm -- -- --
  Wed, Dec 29 Wofford 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Mon, Jan 3 at Georgia St. 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Wed, Jan 5 Drexel 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Sat, Jan 8 at N.C. Wilmington 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Wed, Jan 12 at William & Mary 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Sat, Jan 15 Northeastern 12:00 pm -- -- --
  Wed, Jan 19 Georgia St. 7:30 pm -- -- --
  Sat, Jan 22 at Old Dominion 4:00 pm -- -- --
  Mon, Jan 24 at Towson 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Thu, Jan 27 Hofstra 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Sat, Jan 29 N.C. Wilmington 7:30 pm -- -- --
  Wed, Feb 2 at Northeastern 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Sat, Feb 5 at James Madison 12:00 pm -- -- --
  Wed, Feb 9 at Delaware 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Sat, Feb 12 Old Dominion TBA -- -- --
  Tue, Feb 15 George Mason 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Wed, Feb 23 at Drexel 7:00 pm -- -- --
  Sat, Feb 26 James Madison 12:00 pm -- -- --

Roster

2010-11 VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH RAMS
NO NAME POS HT WT CLASS HOMETOWN
5 Juvonte Reddic F 6-10 230 FR Winston-Salem, NC
10 Darius Theus G 6-3 200 SO Portsmouth, VA
12 Joey Rodriguez G 5-10 175 SR Oviedo, FL
20 Bradford Burgess G 6-5 225 JR Midlothian, VA
21 Jamie Skeen F 6-9 240 SR Charlotte, NC
23 Rob Brandenberg G 6-3 160 FR Gahanna, OH
24 Heath Houston F 6-8 240 FR Powder Springs, GA
25 Reco McCarter G 6-7 190 FR Goldsboro, NC
30 Troy Daniels G 6-4 200 SO Roanoke, VA
31 Toby Veal F 6-8 230 JR Savannah, GA
32 Brandon Rozzell G 6-2 190 SR Richmond, VA
33 D.J. Haley C 6-11 255 FR Palmdale, CA
34 David Hinton F 6-8 235 SO Winston-Salem, NC
50 Ed Nixon G 6-4 210 SR St. Petersburg, FL

Previous Game Box Score (along with projected starters)

 

Winthrop Eagles
STARTERS MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
George Valentine, F 38 4-7 0-0 1-2 5 9 1 2 2 2 2 9
Matt Morgan, C 37 2-8 0-1 0-0 1 4 0 2 1 1 0 4
Justin Burton, G 30 1-9 0-3 4-6 1 3 5 2 0 1 2 6
Reggie Middleton, G 22 3-9 0-1 0-0 1 4 1 0 0 5 3 6
Andre Jones, G 34 4-13 1-3 0-0 0 3 2 0 0 0 1 9
BENCH MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
Gideon Gamble, G 27 7-12 4-7 2-3 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 20
Julius Francis, C 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
Joab Jerome, F 7 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
TOTALS FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
21-59 5-15 7-11 8 27 9 6 3 12 12 54
35.6% 33.3% 63.6%
 
Virginia Commonwealth Rams
STARTERS MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
Jamie Skeen, F 34 1-3 0-1 1-2 0 8 2 0 3 2 1 3
Toby Veal, F 19 3-3 0-0 0-0 1 3 0 1 0 1 1 6
Ed Nixon, G 29 3-8 2-4 0-0 1 4 3 2 1 3 2 8
Joey Rodriguez, G 31 4-10 4-7 3-5 0 2 8 0 0 3 2 15
Bradford Burgess, G 28 5-12 2-5 0-1 0 3 2 0 2 1 1 12
BENCH MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
Brandon Rozzell, G 23 4-7 2-4 0-0 0 2 2 1 0 2 2 10
Darius Theus, G 15 2-3 1-1 0-0 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 5
Troy Daniels, G 6 0-2 0-2 0-0 0 2 0 1 0 1 1 0
Juvonte Reddic, F 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rob Brandenberg, G 12 4-4 0-0 0-0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 8
D.J. Haley, C 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
TOTALS FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
26-52 11-24 4-8 2 28 19 5 6 15 14 67
50.0% 45.8% 50.0%

 

Score Predictions (WFU opens @ -1...no idea how)

My Prediction- VCU-83 Wake-68 (1-1 on the season)

KenPom- VCU-77  Wake- 74 

ACCUScore- VCU-77 Wake-72 (projected box score below)

Va. Commonwealth
Forecasts PTS FGM FGA FG% FTM FTA 3PM 3PA AST STL TO OREB TREB BLK
Joey Rodriguez 17.6 5.8 13.9 42% 3.6 4.5 2.4 6.8 7.8 1.0 3.3 0.8 2.9 0.0
Bradford Burgess 13.7 4.6 10.1 46% 3.0 4.0 1.5 4.2 2.0 1.1 1.7 1.4 4.9 0.2
Jamie Skeen 11.8 4.3 8.5 50% 3.0 4.6 0.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 2.1 5.5 0.4
Brandon Rozzell 11.2 3.9 9.4 41% 1.4 1.9 2.0 5.3 2.0 1.1 1.5 0.3 2.7 0.1
Ed Nixon 8.0 2.8 6.4 43% 1.4 1.9 1.0 2.7 1.9 1.1 1.3 0.8 2.6 0.2
Toby Veal 6.0 2.3 5.0 47% 0.9 1.3 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.9 3.3 10.6 0.4
Darius Theus 4.0 1.5 3.4 44% 0.6 1.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.8 1.0 0.4 1.1 0.0
Troy Daniels 2.1 0.7 2.1 32% 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0
Rob Brandenberg 1.9 0.8 1.9 39% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 2.2 0.1
VACOMM Benchwarmers 0.9 0.4 1.3 28% 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.1 0.1
TOTAL 77.1 26.9 61.9 44% 14.6 20.4 8.7 24.7 18.5 7.3 11.6 10.2 34.2 1.5
Wake Forest
Forecasts PTS FGM FGA FG% FTM FTA 3PM 3PA AST STL TO OREB TREB BLK
J.T. Terrell 15.0 5.6 12.0 47% 2.3 3.0 1.4 3.6 4.2 1.0 3.8 1.5 5.4 0.3
C.J. Harris 11.9 3.1 8.1 39% 4.3 5.2 1.4 4.1 1.7 0.9 2.3 0.1 1.3 0.0
Travis McKie 11.6 4.5 9.7 46% 1.9 2.6 0.7 1.9 2.9 0.2 2.8 0.9 3.0 0.2
Ari Stewart 10.0 3.6 9.7 37% 1.0 1.5 1.7 5.0 0.7 0.4 2.8 0.8 3.3 0.1
Gary Clark 6.4 2.3 5.4 42% 0.9 1.3 1.0 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.4 1.2 0.1
Ty Walker 4.6 1.6 4.7 34% 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.4 5.3 3.6
Ryan Keenan 3.6 1.4 2.9 49% 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.7 2.3 0.1
Melvin Tabb 3.5 1.5 2.6 58% 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 2.3 7.8 0.6
Carson Desrosiers 3.2 1.4 2.3 60% 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.6 0.4
Aaron Ingle 2.4 1.0 2.1 46% 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 1.7 0.1
WF Benchwarmers 0.1 0.0 0.1 44% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TOTAL 72.3 26.1 59.6 44% 13.4 18.0 6.6 18.2 12.9 5.3 15.5 9.9 34.9 5.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wrap-Up

That wraps up the preview of the game tonight. I think it will be a tough one for the Deacs to handle. I am really excited to see if we can continue to improve. The atmosphere has to be better tonight because last night was atrocious. Good luck to Jamie Skeen in his return to Wake Forest as well! Go Deacs!!!

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