Hatters Hatin' (Game/Statistical Recap and Analysis)

Stetson
89
Stetson


Wake Forest
79
Wake Forest

First of all, congratulations to Stetson. This is a very big win for the Hatters, and they outhustled, outcoached, and outplayed Wake Forest on their home court. I will go ahead and eat crow about my 83-58 prediction in favor of the Demon Deacons. Although I did a good amount of research on the Hatters, I really thought the Deacs would be able to handle them, even with a limited bench, new coach, and many freshmen. I was obviously incorrect in that assessment.  The better team won last night, and kudos to Stetson for that.

Now that are done with our congratulations, we must turn our attention to Wake Forest. What exactly happened last night? There are many answers to that question, and no single answer can adequately answer it. The primary answer is youth. Youth led to the undisciplined play on both ends of the court, which constantly put our players in the wrong place at the wrong time. 

Click through the article and I will pinpoint what else went wrong, along with player evaluations.

Category Offense Defense D-I Avg
Adj. Efficiency: 103.1 122 100.1 146 100.6
Adj. Tempo: 71.3 17 67.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%: 47.5 113 50.0 113 48.5
Turnover %: 21.1 112 16.2 176 21.2
Off. Reb. %: 19.2 186 37.3 141 32.5
FTA/FGA: 37.7 106 37.7 98

39.3

Looking at this chart from KenPom diagnoses pretty much everything that we did poorly on Friday. The first number that sticks out is the 19.2% in offensive rebounding %. Essentially what this number means, is what percentage of offensive rebounding opportunities does a team actually gain a rebound. The average D1 percentage last year was 36.4%, last place was 20.1%. While this is obviously a small sample size, it does show how woeful we were at getting second chance opportunities.  On the flip side, Stetson was able to secure 37.3% of offensive rebounding opportunities. This is slightly above average, but Stetson is not on of the tallest teams that we will play all year. 

Looking at our numbers compared to the NCAA average, we are pretty much on par with FG%, offensive turnover %, and FTA/FGA. We need to get better in the effective fg% (anything below 50% is bad, anything over is good). The fact that we shoot a lot of threes should not really be a big deal here because it is rewarded accordingly when made. Something that sticks out to me is the speed that we are playing at. The adjusted tempo for us right now is 71.3 (17th in the country). Last year the D1 average was 66.5, and it usually varies between 66-68%. We need to slow it down a little bit and get some better offensive flow, which will in turn raise the effective fg%. This is especially important to Wake Forest this year because of our inability to hit the boards on the offensive end. Every 1 out of 5 shots do we get an offensive rebound. This means we need to get higher percentage shots and make them. We only get an offensive rebound on 1 out of every 5 missed shots. This has to improve if we are going to be competitive this year.

Other Miscellaneous Stats/Components:

Miscellaneous Components
3P%: 30.8 116 38.5 139 33.8
2P%: 48.6 92 48.2 103 47.4
FT%: 91.3 5 76.9 159 67.2
Block%: 8.6 97 14.3 49 9.9
Steal%: 14.9 181 2.5 203 10.0
Style Components
3PA/FGA: 42.6 34 18.8 8 33.6
A/FGM: 64.0 46 37.5 16 54.4
Defensive Fingerprint: Mostly Man  
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers: 30.4 76 16.9 161 27.6
2-Pointers: 43.0 155 60.7 43 51.0
Free Throws: 26.6 47 22.5 95 21.4

 

 Tempo Based Stats for 40 minutes:

Wake Forest

Name

P/40

A/40

R/40

eFG %

TS %

A Ratio

T Ratio

Usg %

 JT Terrell

 34.7

 1.3

 4.0

 58.8

 63.4

 4.3

 8.5

 37.9

 Gary Clark

 13.3

 0.0

 3.3

 60.0

 68.0

 0.0

 33.8

 18.5

 CJ Harris

 9.5

 5.3

 3.2

 41.7

 58.0

 29.8

 23.9

 17.6

 Travis McKie

 16.0

 3.2

 8.0

 50.0

 56.3

 16.8

 8.4

 21.1

 Ty Walker

 6.7

 1.3

 6.7

 50.0

 56.3

 15.5

 15.5

 9.6

 Ari Stewart

 20.0

 4.0

 13.3

 43.3

 47.2

 13.7

 13.7

 33.3

 Tony Chennault

 18.5

 9.2

 6.2

 25.0

 52.1

 30.7

 10.2

 29.5

 Carson Desrosiers

 0.0

 4.4

 4.4

 0.0

 0.0

 20.0

 40.0

 24.3

 Ryan Keenan

 0.0

 0.0

 0.0

 0.0

 0.0

 0.0

 0.0

 0.0

Shot Breakdown by Player:

Wake Forest

 

Total

Dunk

Layup

Jumper

3 PTR

Player

Att

Made

Made

Att

%

Made

Att

%

Made

Att

%

Made

Att

%

Ari Stewart

6

15

1

1

100.0

1

1

100.0

3

5

60.0

1

8

12.5

Ryan Keenan

0

0

0

0

0.0

0

0

0.0

0

0

0.0

0

0

0.0

Carson Desrosiers

0

2

0

0

0.0

0

0

0.0

0

2

0.0

0

0

0.0

Tony Chennault

1

4

0

0

0.0

0

1

0.0

1

3

33.3

0

0

0.0

CJ Harris

2

6

0

0

0.0

1

2

50.0

0

0

0.0

1

4

25.0

Gary Clark

2

5

0

0

0.0

0

0

0.0

0

2

0.0

2

3

66.7

JT Terrell

8

17

1

1

100.0

2

3

66.7

1

4

25.0

4

9

44.4

Travis McKie

4

8

1

1

100.0

2

3

66.7

1

2

50.0

0

2

0.0

Ty Walker

2

4

1

1

100.0

0

0

0.0

1

3

33.3

0

0

0.0

Totals

25

61

4

4

100.0

6

10

60.0

7

21

33.3

8

26

30.8

Wake Forest Demon Deacons- Box Score
STARTERS MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
Travis McKie, F 25 4-8 0-2 2-2 2 5 2 2 0 1 5 10
Ty Walker, C 30 2-4 0-0 1-1 0 5 1 0 7 1 0 5
J.T. Terrell, G 31 8-17 4-9 6-8 1 3 1 0 1 2 5 26
Gary Clark, G 24 2-5 2-3 2-2 1 2 0 0 0 3 3 8
C.J. Harris, G 38 2-6 1-4 4-4 0 3 5 0 0 4 4 9
BENCH MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
Tony Chennault, G 13 1-4 0-0 4-4 1 2 3 0 0 1 2 6
Ari Stewart, F 30 6-15 1-8 2-2 1 10 3 0 0 3 3 15
Carson Desrosiers, C 8 0-2 0-0 0-0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0
Ryan Keenan, F 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTALS FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A OREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF PTS
25-61 8-26 21-23 6 31 16 2 8 17 22 79
41.0% 30.8% 91.3%

Here is a look at the raw numbers from Wake Forest. We shot a modest 41.0%, including 8-26 from behind the line. We have to shoot much better from the 3 point line if we are going to take 42.6% of our shot from behind the arc. With shooters like JTT, Ari, McKie, Clark, and CJ, I want us to keep shooting, we just have to take higher percentage shots, and make more of them. It's nice to see 16 assists on 25 made baskets, as well as many people getting involved with the passing. 21-23 from the free throw line is always a plus, and we will have to keep up the good shooting from the charity stripe to stay close late in games.

The most disheartening stat on there is the 31 rebounds. Stetson managed to get 42 rebounds, including 16 offensive rebounds. The reasons for this are pretty obvious, and I will detail that in the player evaluations below.

Bottom Line from the stats: We have to take better shots, and we have to rebound better. To make both of these things work we need to slow down, set up offensive sets/plays, and get in position to rebound off missed shots.

Player Evaluations:

C.J Harris- I thought C.J did some good things and some bad things. He played 38 minutes, and that is what is going to be demanded with the injury of Chennault. Harris shot rather poorly from the field, but did a good job of getting his teammates involved. He has gotten a lot stronger in the offseason and can now drive to the basket. He does however need to make better decisions on the court and trust his teammates to hit the shots (which I believe they will do once Coach Bzdelik gets the offense where he wants it).

Gary Clark- As much as I love G$, and although he is going to have to see this much time, it is a big indicator of where we are when he plays 24 minutes, even in the season opener. Clark does a lot of small things well; he hustles, plays solid D, and moves well on offense. He does not however possess the ability to drive to the basket, and even hit the three as consistently as he should. This was a problem against Stetson because he kept driving to the hoop when he should have passed out to reset the offense. Once again, I think this will change as Coach continues to work with the offense.

J.T.T- What can I say about him? He is everything that Martin, Jake, Bart and I thought he would be...AND MORE. We wondered whether he would be allowed to shoot at will, the answer to that is yes and no. He clearly has the green light to shoot whenever he wants to, but when he took a couple of bad shots, along with a bad turnover, he was pulled from the game for an extended period of time. I have absolutely no problem with this, because he was also probably pretty winded. 26 points on 17 shots is very good, especially for his first regular season game. He is going to be a stud for us this year, and should be utilized on a heavy % of possessions (was used on 37.9% of possessions translated over 40 minutes for the game on Friday). Needless to say, I am very excited to see him play and continue to develop.

Travis McKie- I am not really disappointed with what "Twitter" did against Stetson, but I had really high hopes because of his play against Guilford. He had 10 points and 5 rebounds, but also fouled out in 25 minutes. The biggest problem is his tendency to get into foul trouble. He reached and pressed a lot in the summer league, and he continues to do so in the regular season. With a limited bench, he has to stay out of foul trouble and contribute more than he did. McKie, along with Stewart are going to have to hit the boards all season long, and that starts with getting into better positions than they have been.

Ty Walker- Ty has certainly improved in the off-season, but continues to struggle with his emotions on the court, as well as rebounding. Ty Walker is a born shot blocker, there is no denying that (7 blocks), but that is absolutely killing us right now. His number one priority absolutely has to be rebounding. When he tries to block every shot, which he does, he is continually out of position, and Stetson took full advantage of that. He needs to stay at home and box his guy out. There is no excuse for a 7'0 player to only get 5 rebounds in a game. I bet Coach Pope works hard with him to improve that ASAP.

Ari Stewart- Stewart had a pretty good game overall. I think it is obvious that he is still trying to get back into game shape after his concussion and his knee injury. He took plenty of shots and attacked the boards with a tenacity that will be needed all year (as well as translate over to the other players). He would have been used on 33% of possessions over 40 minutes (second to only JTT). Although Ari can fill it up from all over the court, he needs to use better shot selection in upcoming games.

Tony Chennault- TC looked pretty solid to me before he left with another foot injury. This one will keep him out for 8-10 weeks, and it makes me think that he will use a medical redshirt this year. This is extremely disappointing for himself, as well as the team on the whole. He was going to be the man at the point for the year (I love CJ to death, but I honestly do not know if he is the answer at PG right now, I could be wrong), and his injury really hurts our guard depth. This will lead to JTT getting a lot of PG minutes as well. He gets to the rim well, and can pass out of the post, which is a bit unusual for our guards as of late. He should be a good one for us when it's all said and done.

Carson Desrosiers- It was obvious that Carson has the raw skills to contribute on an ACC level, but he has to refine those skills, as well as bulk up to be a big part of our team this year. He only got 8 minutes, and was really non-existent. With a limited frontcourt, he is going to get time whether he is ready or not in the coming weeks. He should fit in well to the constantly moving offense, and looked pretty good shifting on the baseline and giving passes inside.

Overall, the team looked like I thought they would. We are very young and tend to make a lot of mistakes. What I really didn't like seeing was the lack of hustle on some plays, particularly from our frontcourt. We seemingly lack fundamentals on the inside (boxing out/positioning), and Coach Pope has a lot of work to do if we are going to make any noise at all this year.

While I did not expect to lose to Stetson, the Hatters really looked like the better team on Friday night. They ran good sets, crashed the boards, and did enough defensively to keep us from getting into a flow. The offense for us is a work in progress. The blueprints are certainly there, and I thought we moved very well off the ball, but it was often without meaning. I would assume this is from getting comfortable with each other and developing fluidity/continuity consistently.

Bottom Line: Coach Bzdelik certainly has his hands full, but should not really shoulder much of the blame yet. I like what I have seen (aside from the results), and think we need to be supportive and give Coach time before we jump all over him. We all knew that this was going to be a trying year, and let's keep that in mind as the year progresses. Things look pretty bleak right now, but it is obvious in my opinion that we are coaching the guys up and trying to make them better as the year progresses, even at the expense of some of the earlier games. I personally do not have a problem with this at all because of the youth on team. It will lead to a lot of negativity from fans, but you will not see me getting up in arms unless we are not hustling, or if we are not improving. Despite the loss I am still optimistic for the future and excited to watch our guys grow and develop as a team.

A Hampton preview will be out sometime tomorrow night, or Monday afternoon. I will try to make it as informative as the Stetson on, with potentially better/more realistic predictions now that we know what we are working with.

As always, comment away, and Go Deacs!!! Oh and a special thanks to KenPom and SCACCHoops for making the stats readily available!

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