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Wake in the Pros: Rookies Jeff Teague and James Johnson

We're almost a quarter of the way through the NBA season, so it's time to take a look at how Demon Deacon first round picks Jeff Teague and James Johnson have been playing thus far...

Star-divide

 

Jeff Teague
8.9 mpg, 2.9 ppg, 1.6 ast, .9 reb, .4 to

33% FG, 90% FT, 30% 3PT

13.0 pts/40 min, 4.5 reb/40, 7.0 ast/40, 40.4 true shooting%, 27.9 ast%, 8.0 to%, 6.4 reb%

11.05 PER

 

 

 

James Johnson
9.6 mpg, 3.4 ppg, .2 ast, 1.7 reb, .6 to

35% FG, 83% FT, 22% 3PT

14.1 pts/40, 7.0 reb/40, 1.0 ast/40, 42.9 true shooting%, 4.8 ast%, 12.8 to%, 9.8 reb%

7.02 PER

 

As a benchmark:

Lebron James (led league in PER last year)

29.8 pts/40, 7.4 reb/40, 8.8 ast/40, 61 true shooting%, 23.6 ast%, 10.6 to%, 11 reb%

30.02 PER

So we have a lot of stats here. All of this is from the Hollinger ratings and PER, the most important stat, is a calculation of all the players' metrics and ends up being his efficiency rating. The average NBA player's efficency rating is 15. For this discussion, it also important to note that the top 5 rookies in PER are Tyreke Evans (1), James Harden (2), DeJuan Blair (3), Ty Lawson (4) and Brandon Jennings (5). All five are have efficiency ratings about 17. The eligible rookie average (at least 6 mpg) is 12.72.

Now, it's not fair to compare Teague and Johnson to Lebron, I know that. I was just using Lebron's stats as a way to understand the metrics better. Stats per 40 is always an interesting stat to use, as it projects what a player's contribution would theoretically be if he played the whole game. This has been especially useful in players like Paul Millsap and Anderson Varejao, who posted huge per 40 #s off the bench in the past.

Both Teague and Johnson are early on in their development and are not asked to play a large contributing role (both at under 10 mpg). This is a combination of two things--1.) there is depth at their positions and 2.) they are not ready to shoulder the load. Both players have a lot to learn about the NBA game.

For Teague, he is learning a position that he is not used to playing. In college, it was easy to see that Teague was not a true point guard. He was far from it. His TO rate was extremely high and he seemed content to slash with the ball in his hands rather than make plays for his teammates. By the same token, Teague wasn't exactly a prototypical SG either. He looked bored without the ball and did not seem involved in the offense (although how much of that was a product of the Wake offense is not really measurable).

So, in trying to learn a new position, Teague has two very strong players ahead of him in Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby. If he can't get something out of those two, he might not get it at all. And he seems to have taken heed. He is following Bibby's practice routines now.

Teague's numbers average out to be pretty decent per 40, but he has a glaring weakness right now and that is his shooting percentage. This has been a problem for him, especially lately. There's a built-in excuse that he isn't on the floor long enough to get his rhythm, but when he is on the floor, he is dominating the possessions. (He is 11th among rookies in usage rate). His saving grace has been his TO rate--he is ranked 5th in the rookie class.

There is no question that Teague has the ability to shoot--he was absolutely on fire last season, so I don't see that being a problem long-term. But Jeff will have to improve his strength so that he can get to the hoop and he will have to learn to be more patient with the basketball.

With Johnson, there is a lot more going on. His true shooting percentage is higher than Teague's at 42.9, but he needs to define what kind of player he is going to be. And that question was there when James was at Wake too. He seems to want to play the 3, but he doesn't have the outside shot, has not been distributing the ball and he turns the ball over too much (12.8 TO%). He has the body for the 4 (although he needs to get in better basketball shape), but he does not have the defensive mindset for the position.

So, while he was drafted a round higher and has a wider skillset, Taj Gibson was called on to start when Tyrus Thomas went down. And Gibson has continued to play more minutes and put up better numbers. Gibson's PER is 11.78, while Johnson's is just 7.02 (second-worst among rookies).

Now James has the athletic ability, there is no question. He was arguably Wake's best player (and definitely was in the second half of the season) last year and has the potential to dominate games. Plus, with his frame and ballhandling abilites, he has an NBA body. What he needs to work on, as was discussed during draft discussions, is his decision-making and his commitment on defense. He has said a lot of the right things, but he needs to put those words into action.

That said, both Johnson and Teague were drafted in the first round for a reason. They project to be solid NBA players. While neither look to be the next Lebron James or Allen Iverson, as long as they listen to their coaches and put in the work, they can be above-average or better, especially with their athleticism and ability. But unfortunately, the same problems that they had at Wake followed them to the pros, and they still have to fix them before they can get a lot more minutes.

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Draft Question

Let me preface my question by saying that I do not follow the NBA very closely. I do usually enjoy the playoffs, but essentially just pull for the teams that have former Wake players. My question: In retrospect, given your comment about Johnson being passed over for Gibson, would the Teague and Johnson picks be considered poor picks? Is it normal for NBA teams to use 1st round picks on players, such as Teague and Johnson, that are making what appear to be rather small contributions?

by ABullard on Dec 9, 2009 1:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Well that’s a complicated question—in the NBA draft there is a lot more emphasis on upside than there is in the NFL draft (MLB is just a crapshoot and there’s a lot more players involved).

So you’ll look at a guy for instance like DeJuan Blair. Blair was as close to a complete player as you could get coming out of college, but he was passed over repeatedly for other players who had either a.) accomplished less (had less #s) or b.) hadn’t even played at all in the united states. That happens a lot. What the scouts see is that Blair, right now, is undersized and is as good as he could possibly be (I’m not saying I agree with that, it’s just a scout’s opinion).

So instead, a team will draft a guy who has freakish length, tremendous jumping ability, quickness, a height advantage at his position, etc… despite not being polished or familiar with his position. Take Hasheem Thabeet—dude is a monster in size and athletic ability, but he barely knows anything fundamentally about the game of basketball. But if he is coachable, he becomes a great draft pick.

So that brings us to Johnson and Teague. What is strange about them is that they did have a little bit of polish to them—but they were in nowhere’s land as far as a position was concerned. Both were “combo” players, Teague at the point and SG, James at SF and PF. The problem is that in the NBA unless you are completely dominant, combos don’t often work out.

Daniel Gibson is the perfect example. At Texas, he played a similar role that Teague did at Wake. He wasn’t a PG, but he played the point a lot. He came to Cleveland, still couldn’t play the point but is undersized for a SG. So, the Cavs use him sparingly at the point, although he has improved somewhat there, and as a SG in certain rotations—the fact that he became a good outside shooter also helped him.

With Teague, he can shoot. We know that. But, like Daniel Gibson, he is not tall enough to be a SG. So, they have to transform him. Teague is ahead because he is a better driver than Gibson is, and Teague has the luxury of playing behind two good PGs. So, he is learning a lot and you can see results probably 1-3 years from now.

The case with Johnson is that a.) Taj Gibson fits a need for them. He is a more prototypical PF and could be slotted in, he showed more early on in grasping the system and the defensive side of the ball and he just produced more flat out. If given the choice though, James still has the higher upside. He has more athletic ability, has shown more from the ballhandling standpoint, and if he gets into better shape, has a very strong NBA body.

So the short answer to the long drivel I just wrote is that it really is too early to tell. The NBA takes a couple years just like any other draft to see what a guy is like. There are always a few no-brainer stud players, but about 75% of the draft ends up being guys who reach their potential, fail to do so, or overachieve. For every Lebron James there are 30 Darkos. But in between, there are a ton of mid-first to late-second guys who are productive NBA guys. I believe James and Jeff will be in that group.

Bah da da da da da da da, Go Deacs.

Blogger So Dear

by Martin Rickman on Dec 9, 2009 3:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I hope so. I would like to see them do well, despite the effort and attitude problems they exhibited at times last year. Thanks for the explanation as well.

by ABullard on Dec 10, 2009 1:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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