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Wake Forest +/- vs. NC State


This is the first post in a series that will look at the plus/minus stat for each Wake Forest ACC game. Read below for my intro to the stat itself and for data from the NC State game.

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Let’s talk about the rarely used plus/minus for Wake Forest. I like this stat, but you rarely see it calculated in box score. It has some drawbacks, but it can show us some interesting game trends.

 

What I am going to attempt to do for the rest of the season is calculate +/- stats for Wake players in ACC games. At the end of the regular season I'll have a cumulative metric for each player.

 

Let’s first look at the pros and cons for this statistic when analyzing it game by game.

 

Pros:

  • Tells us who had a positive impact on the score
  • Captures nearly all contributions made by a player

 

Cons:

  • Does not show when the contributions were made (Crunch time, garbage time, etc)
  • Cannot tell us what teammates were on the court or what opponents were on the court, which can skew the data

 

For an example of a game when +/- data is quite useful for someone who did not watch a game, let's take the Kings-Bulls game from Monday night, when the Kings came back from 35 down in the 3rd quarter to win the game:

 

Player name +/- stat
Omri Casspi -25
Spencer Hawes -21
Jason Thompson +2
Andres Nocioni -28
Tyreke Evans +6
Kenny Thomas -2
Ime Udoka +13
Beno Udrih +14
Jon Brockman +26
Sergio Rodriguez +16
Donte Greene +19

 

Is there any doubt as to which players were ready to play and which were not that night? I went to the boxscore of that game before I read the recap and was astonished by the differences in margins for the players, especially when the game ended up so close. After reading what happened in game, I knew exactly who was on the court during the big comeback.

 

In that same regard, I'm going to track +/- for the Deacs in ACC play this season. I will make several small inferences from single games but will be able to draw some big picture conclusions when I have a bigger sample size.

 

Here's the chart from the NC State game. For now, I'm not going to make any major assumptions about the data. But if you want to comment on something or have your own ideas, I would be all ears.

 

Player Name +/- Stat
Al-Farouq Aminu +4
LD Williams +2
Chas McFarland +7
Ishmael Smith +4
CJ Harris +6
Gary Clark +4
Ari Stewart +3
Tony Woods +3
David Weaver +2

 

This is about what I expected for this game. The game was close most of the way and did not feature many big runs by either team. Nice to see everyone making a positive contribution. As the season rolls on, we will be able to see more trends but I am encouraged by the data from the first game.

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Thanks Josh—it’s good to have you aboard. Josh was a 2008 Wake grad and recently received his Masters of Science in Accounting (did I get that right J?), so it will be interesting to get insight from his background.

If you have any questions for him, I’m sure he’d be happy to answer them.

As to the +/-, the one flaw is that sometimes the data does misrepresent how a guy played based simply around the fact that he was on the court when the team was having its runs.

Take Chas McFarland for instance. He had 9 points and 5 rebounds, but was 3/8 from the line. He had an offensive rating of 75, but his +/- was +7, the highest on the team.

By comparison, Aminu was 7/11 from the floor and had 18 points, 13 rebounds and 3 assists (to go along with his 7 TO). Aminu’s +/- is +4 and his offensive rating was 91.

Although the stat is useful, like anything else, it only provides part of the overall picture.

It will be interesting to see it in a long-term sense though. I have a feeling that is where the metric will be way more telling.

Bah da da da da da da da, Go Deacs.

Blogger So Dear

by Martin Rickman on Dec 23, 2009 1:29 PM EST reply actions  

Good points

I agree and thanks again for being able to post.

Like all stats, +/- cannot be looked at in a vacuum but needs to be used alongside other stats to draw conclusions. It is rarely calculated for CBB which is why I decided to do it. If I have time, I would love to do trio’s or lineup’s of players to see which players play best together. Not sure I will be able to undertake that though.

I like +/- because it can show you if a player contributes outside the boxscore. Yes, it can be skewed by teammates and opponents but it can also show who is impacting the game when they are on the floor.

 I am very interested in the long term trends rather than game to game stats.

by JoshuaR on Dec 23, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions  

are you keeping track of the +/- by lineup or player combinations? i found the individual +/- didn’t really reveal all that much last year (i.e. johnson, teague & aminu did great compared to others, if i recall correctly), but it was a lot more interesting to look at 3 guard lineups vs “normal”, how smith & teague did on the court together vs. by themselves, lineups w/o mcfarland, etc.

i don’t have the time to do it this year unfortunately, but it didn’t take too much time to compile the lineup stats in addition to doing the individual +/- if you track it correctly.

also, i think showing minutes along with the +/- as you compile more games (and show ytd totals) to be better than just the +/- orphaned because you shouldn’t put the same emphasis on the numbers between someone who only played 10% of total minutes (walker) compared to someone who played 30 mpg (ish).

by mountainfried on Dec 23, 2009 9:53 PM EST reply actions  

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