Comparing the ACC and Big Ten in football
by Martin Rickman on Nov 20, 2009 4:26 PM EST
7 comments
It's that time of the year again! That time where I spend way too much time crunching numbers to see just where the Big Ten is compared to the rest of the BCS conferences. And this year, I'll use the ACC as a model to stack up against. It is always trendy to knock the ACC down as an inferior BCS conference, but let's go deeper shall we to see how both conferences compare.
Ok. Let's look at the college football rankings to start. I hate the BCS and AP poll, but it's a good jumping off point and will start to prove my point that the voters just don't really get it and haven't for about 5 years now.
ACC Rankings (BCS/AP) Record:
Georgia Tech (7/7) 10-1
Virginia Tech (15/16) 7-3
Miami (20/21) 7-3
Clemson (23/18) 7-3
Big Ten (BCS/AP) Record:
Ohio State (10/9) 9-2
Iowa (13/15) 9-2
Penn State (14/13) 9-2
Wisconsin (16/17) 8-2
Ok, so 4 ranked teams each. The Big Ten takes the edge, since their teams have a better average ranking in the polls. But the fact that there are 4 Big Ten teams with 2 losses seems a little odd, doesn't it? There isn't a lot of parity in the Big Ten, while the ACC usually gets absolutely blasted for "beating up on each other" (while this was a HUGE positive in the Big Ten for basketball last year, but I digress).
Well let's look at the Sagarin Rankings...This time I'll go through all the teams in each conference
Let's start with the conference itself:
ACC: #3 conference, Big Ten #6 conference. Interesting.
ACC Sagarin Ratings: Rating (Strength of Schedule) Top Wins:
Georgia Tech (10-1): 7 (12) 1-0 vs. Top Ten, 3-1 vs. Top 30
Virginia Tech (7-3): 9 (3) 0-2 vs. Top Ten, 3-3 vs. Top 30
Clemson (7-3): 13 (25) 0-2 vs. Top Ten, 2-2 vs. Top 30
Miami (7-3): 16 (8) 1-1 vs. Top Ten, 2-3 vs. Top 30
BC (7-3): 25 (37) 0-1 vs. Top Ten, 0-2 vs. Top 30
UNC (7-3): 28 (44) 1-1 vs. Top Ten, 2-1 vs. Top 30
Florida State (5-5): 32(4) 0-1 vs. Top Ten, 1-4 vs. Top 30
Wake Forest (4-7): 58 (10) 0-1 vs. Top Ten, 1-4 vs. Top 30
Virginia (3-7): 63 (9) 0-2 vs. Top Ten, 1-4 vs. Top 30
Duke (5-5): 72 (70) 0-2 vs. Top Ten, 0-3 vs. Top 30
NC State (4-7): 81 (81) 0-0 vs. Top Ten, 1-2 vs. Top 30
Maryland (2-8): 102 (23) 0-1 vs. Top Ten, 1-2 vs. Top 30
Big Ten Sagarin Ratings: Rating (Strength of Schedule) Top Wins:
Ohio State (9-2): 11 (49) 0-0 vs. Top Ten, 3-1 vs. Top 30
Iowa (9-2): 18 (33) 0-0 vs. Top Ten, 3-1 vs. Top 30
Penn State (9-2): 21 (84) 0-0 vs. Top Ten, 0-2 vs. Top 30
Wisconsin (8-2): 30 (54) 0-0 vs. Top Ten, 0-2 vs. Top 30
Michigan State (6-5): 54 (47) 0-0 vs. Top Ten, 0-2 vs. Top 30
Minnesota (6-5): 62 (28) 0-0 vs. Top Ten, 0-4 vs. Top 30
Northwestern (7-4): 74 (103) 0-0 vs. Top Ten, 1-1 vs. Top 30
Purdue (4-7): 78 (31) 0-1 vs. Top Ten, 1-2 vs. Top 30
Michigan (5-6): 82 (86) 0-0 vs. Top Ten, 0-3 vs. Top 30
Indiana (4-7): 91 (59) 0-0 vs. Top Ten, 0-4 vs. Top 30
Illinois (3-7): 96 (46) 0-0 vs. Top Ten, 0-2 vs. Top 30
Ok, so let's break this down a bit. The ACC as a conference has played 14 Top Ten teams and has 3 Top Ten wins (obviously teams play each other, and I get that). The Big Ten has no wins in the Top Ten. Not one team in the Top Ten (although Ohio State sits at 11 in Sagarin, so that number would be higher if they were in the Top Ten). The ACC has 13 Top 30 wins. The Big Ten has 8. 11 teams in the ACC have a Top 30 win. 4 teams in the Big Ten have one.
The ACC's average ranking is 42. The Big Ten's average ranking is 56. The ACC's average is 14 spots higher than the Big Ten.
Let's go with non-conference schedules next, ok?
ACC Schedules:
Boston College: Northeastern (2-8, Sagarin 177), Kent State (5-5, Sagarin 108), Notre Dame (6-4, Sagarin 36), Central Michigan (8-2, Sagarin 45), Combined Record (21-19), Average Sagarin (91.5)
Clemson: MTSU (7-3, Sagarin 84), TCU (10-0, Sagarin 3), Coastal Carolina (5-5, Sagarin 183), South Carolina (6-5, Sagarin 46), Combined Record (28-13), Average Sagarin (79)
Duke: Richmond (9-1, Sagarin 60), Army (4-6, Sagarin 140), Kansas (5-5, Sagarin 64), NC Central (3-7, Sagarin 233), Combined Record (21-19), Average Sagarin (124.25)
FSU: Jacksonville St. (7-3, Sagarin 114), BYU (8-2, Sagarin 31), USF (6-3, Sagarin 38), Florida (10-0, Sagarin 2), Combined Record (31-8), Average Sagarin (46.25)
Georgia Tech: Jacksonville St. (7-3, Sagarin 114), Miss. State (4-6, Sagarin 52), Vandy (2-9, Sagarin 111), Georgia (6-4, Sagarin 33) Combined Record (19-22), Average Sagarin (77.5)
Maryland: Cal (7-3, Sagarin 22), JMU (5-5, Sagarin 109), MTSU (7-3, Sagarin 84), Rutgers (7-2, Sagarin 34), Combined Record (26-13), Average Sagarin (62.25)
Miami: OK (6-4, Sagarin 23), Florida A&M (7-3, Sagarin 172), UCF (6-4, Sagarin, 68), USF (6-4, Sagarin 38), Combined Record (25-15), Average Sagarin (75.25)
UNC: Citadel (4-6, Sagarin 170), UConn (4-5, Sagarin 47), ECU (6-4, Sagarin 57), Georgia So. (4-6, Sagarin 166), Combined Record (18-21), Average Sagarin (110)
NCSU: South Carolina (6-5, Sagarin 46), Murray State (3-7, Sagarin 222), Gardner-Webb (5-5, Sagarin 184), Pitt (9-1, Sagarin 14), Combined Record (23-18), Average Sagarin (116.5)
Virginia: William & Mary (9-1, Sagarin 59), TCU (10-0, Sagarin 3), Southern Miss. (6-4, Sagarin 65), Indiana (4-7, Sagarin 91), Combined Record (29-11), Average Sagarin (54.5)
VT: Alabama (10-0, Sagarin 1), Marshall (5-5, Sagarin 76), Nebraska (7-3, Sagarin 26), ECU (6-4, Sagarin 57), Combined Record, (28-12), Average Sagarin (40)
WFU: Baylor (4-6, Sagarin 73), Stanford (7-3, Sagarin 15), Elon (8-2, Sagarin 103), Navy (8-3, Sagarin 40), Combined Record (27-14), Average Sagarin (57.75)
Big Ten Non-Conference Schedules:
Illinois: Missouri (6-4, Sagarin 50), Illinois State (5-5, Sagarin 151), Cincy (10-0, Sagarin 5), Fresno (6-4, Sagarin 51), Combined Record (27-13), Average Sagarin (64.25)
Iowa: Northern Iowa (7-3, Sagarin 87 ), Iowa State (6-5, Sagarin 71 ), Arizona (6-3, Sagarin 19 ), Arkansas State (2-7, Sagarin 128), Combined Record (21-18), Average Sagarin (76.25)
Indiana: Eastern Kentucky (5-5, Sagarin 178), Western Michigan (5-6, Sagarin 115), Akron (2-8, Sagarin 138), UVA (3-7, Sagarin 63), Combined Record (15-26), Average Sagarin (124)
Michigan: Western Michigan (5-6, Sagarin 115), Notre Dame (6-4, Sagarin 36), Eastern Michigan (0-10, Sagarin 180), Delaware State (3-6, Sagarin 205) Combined Record (14-26), Average Sagarin (134)
Michigan State: Montana State (7-3, Sagarin 118), Notre Dame (6-4, Sagarin 36), Central Michigan (8-2, Sagarin 45), Western Michigan (5-6, Sagarin 115), Combined Record (26-15), Average Sagarin (78.5)
Minnesota: Syracuse (3-7, Sagarin 95), Air Force (7-4,Sagarin 49), Cal (7-3, Sagarin 22), San Diego State (4-6, Sagarin 105), Combined Record) (21-20), Average Sagarin (67.75)
Northwestern: Towson (2-8, Sagarin 193), Eastern Michigan (0-10, Sagarin 180), Syracuse (3-7, Sagarin 95), Miami(OH) (1-10, Sagarin 141), Combined Record (6-35), Average Sagarin (152.25)
Ohio State: Navy (8-3, Sagarin 40), USC (7-3, Sagarin 12), Toledo (4-6, Sagarin 123), New Mexico State (3-7, Sagarin 155), Combined Record (22-19), Average Sagarin (82.5)
Penn State: Akron (2-8, Sagarin 138), Syracuse (3-7, Sagarin 95), Temple (8-2, Sagarin 61), Eastern Illinois (8-2, Sagarin 134), Combined Record (21-19), Sagarin (107),
Purdue: Toledo (4-6, Sagarin 123), Oregon (8-2, Sagarin 6), Northern Illinois (1-9, Sagarin 192), Notre Dame (6-4, Sagarin, 36) Combined Record (19-21), Average Sagarin (89.25)
Wisconsin: Northern Illinois (7-3, Sagarin 77), Fresno (6-4, Sagarin 51), Wofford (3-7, Sagarin 168), Western Michigan (5-6, Sagarin 115), Combined Record (21-20), Average Sagarin (102.75)
Non-Conference Opponents' Combined Record:
ACC: (296-185)
Big Ten:(213-232)
Non-Conference Opponents' Average Sagarin Rating:
ACC: (77.9)
Big Ten: (97.07)
So here we go. I know it's a lot to look at, but the end averages basically say it all. The Big Ten's OOC opponents have less wins and are 20 spots lower on average than the ACC's. The ACC plays tougher competition and because of this, there are fewer teams at say, 9 wins, than the Big Ten.
Some things that stood out were:
-Northwestern's Sagarin and opponent's wins. 6-35 and 152? Woof.
-Illinois, Maryland and Virginia's schedule. They played some tough teams this year. It doesn't help their win totals, but at least they have a little bit of an excuse to struggle (unlike Michigan...).
-FSU's schedule. They've been unlucky, sure, but it doesn't help their cause that they've played the 4th hardest schedule in the country. That's over 10 times harder than Ohio State's.
-Arkansas State, at 2 wins, has a higher Sagarin (128) than 8 win Eastern Illinois. Has nothing to do with this, but just funny.
The computer indicators (ELO CHESS) take this into consideration as well as other things and that is why top to bottom, ACC teams are ranked higher in the Sagarin than their Big Ten counterparts. Why are the Big Ten teams ranked so high in the polls if they play worse teams and the computers have them ranked lower? I'm fine with Ohio State being where they are and even Iowa and Penn State (although their non-conference schedule was embarrassing), but Wisconsin at 16? It's the "prestige" of the Big Ten.
If each team in the Big Ten played their equal in the ACC, I would be willing to bet that those top teams in the ACC would come out on top over the Big Ten. That's not to discount Iowa, PSU and Ohio State (sorry, again, I really just don't think Wisconsin is that good--just like I don't think UNC is that good either.) I just think that paired up--Georgia Tech vs. OSU, Virginia Tech vs. Penn State, Clemson vs. Iowa, etc...--the ACC would win more games.
The Big Ten/ACC Challenge is always fun in basketball, and I would pay good money to see what that challenge would look like in football very year. It would show a lot about both conferences and would give both conferences a chance to prove what they are worth.
What do you think? Disagree/Agree, why?
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Your head to head predictions are way off base
Just like in hoops, where the ACC is king and smokes the Big Ten in the challenge every year, the Big Ten (even in a down year, or down “cycle” as it may be) would smoke the ACC in football.
I’d like to see Georgia Tech’s offense against a real defense (like Ohio State’s or Penn State’s).
Big Ten football is down, no question. But it’s not at the level of ACC football.
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by PennStateFanTalk on Nov 18, 2009 10:16 PM EST reply actions
A real defense?
The problem with the Big 10 is that there is literally no good offense and they play garbage out of conference schedules (hence your Sagarin numbers). Georgia Tech easily wins the Big 10 this year. VT and UNC have better defenses than Ohio State and Penn State and will have more players drafted from their lowly ACC defenses, yet GT handled them alright.
The only teams the Big 10 played OOC this season were Notre Dame and Syracuse yet the Big 10 only managed a 5-8 OOC record against BCS squads. After Cincinnati finishes off their Big 10 team, it’ll be 5-9.
The ACC has played an assortment of quality OOC teams and shown its metal this season. The ACC will finish the season with 20 BCS OOC games. Right now, the ACC is 8-8 in BCS OOC games but should finish 11-9.
Big 10 is overrated much like the SEC because there are so many fans at those schools. They’ve just got more talking heads. More appeal for the WWL to spout off garbage about their conference’s apparent “strengths” because the Big 10 fans will gobble it up.
Final factoid: UVA has only had one game where the opponent scored a touchdown or less. That opponent scored 33 against Michigan, 20 against Penn State, 14 against Ohio State, 27 against Illinois, 28 against Wisconsin, 24+7 against Iowa, 28 against Northwestern…it’s getting old. Don’t crack on the ACC defenses when your worst team can put up numbers against your conference yet can’t even touch our TERRIBLE team’s defense.
This new learning amazes me, Sir Bedevere. Explain again how sheep's bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.
by BirdGT on Nov 19, 2009 8:50 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That’s why I would want to see. The challenge lets play speak for it instead of predictions or generalizations. This year, it’s very well possible that the Big Ten could beat the ACC in basketball. Luckily, we actually get to know.
As to the “real” defenses, Georgia Tech has played (and beaten) the 8th, 14th and 17th highest ranked Total Defenses. Are those real defenses? For reference, Ohio State is 5th and Penn State is 9th. So to say that Tech’s offense would get smoked against OSU and PSU is no more than an assumption. No one has stopped Tech yet.
I could go out and say the same thing to you—GT is 11th in YPG. You know what Penn State and Ohio State are? 43rd and 65th respectively. I’d like to see Ohio State and Penn State play a real offense.
Georgia Tech has only scored less than 24 points once all season. In their only loss. They average 36 points per game.
I know Penn State and Ohio State are built on defense, but it’s not like Georgia Tech was out playing MAC defenses all year. Like I wrote, they’ve played the 12th hardest schedule in the country. Maybe Penn State’s defense is so good because they’ve played the 84th hardest schedule. Or maybe it’s all just speculation like anything else. But I’m entitled to my opinion too. And I lived in ACC/SEC country and now live in Big Ten country again, so I understand what bias is.
Trust me, I’d love to see the Bucks or Lions play GT. It would be awesome to see which side of the ball would come out on top. But, as always, until we get a playoff…well you know the rest.
Bah da da da da da da da, Go Deacs.
Blogger So Dear
by Martin Rickman on Nov 19, 2009 12:06 AM EST reply actions
interesting
thanks – this will only strengthen my homer betting on ACC teams and hating betting on BigTeleven teams come bowl season.
I am so sick of Ohio State. Thank god they are out of MNC picture.
Crystal Balls
ACC's Sagarin Bolstered by Playing SEC
The ACC should, of course, be saluted for going out and playing tougher opponents than the Big Ten, but I don’t think that simply looking at the numbers really tells the whole story. Like most things involving college football, the ACC’s numbers in the Sagarin rating are consistently inflated by how much the league plays the SEC. Since the ACC expanded to 12 teams in 2005, the ACC and SEC have met in regular season non-conference clashes thirty times, and at least six time in each of the last three seasons. Compare that with the Big Ten, which hasn’t gotten a single regular season non-conference clash with the SEC since Sept 2nd, 2006 (Vandy @ Michigan), and only two in the same time frame.
I can’t say for certain why the Big Ten and the SEC simply don’t play each other in the regular season (maybe their ADs just don’t get along), but if you were to simply remove all of the games that the ACC played against the SEC from the schedule (unfortunately you really can’t do anything similar for the Big Ten, as the BCS conference that Big Ten teams played the most was four games with each of the Big East and the Pac Ten) the average Sagarin rating for the ACC’s non-conference opponents jumps from 77.9 to 84.1 (it jumps two more points if you remove Virgina lucking into playing TCU). Truthfully, using the average Sagarin rating is a bad measurement because the best team that the Big Ten played out of conference was Oregon (at 6), while the ACC managed to grab games against the top three teams in his ratings. Still, the ACC ranks higher, but the margin is not nearly are pronounced.
Frankly I find the entire “my conference is better than your conference” argument to be stupid, as each of the BCS conferences has a different identity and teams in that particular conference are constructed to beat other members of that conference, not members of other conferences. In the Big Ten you still have mostly defense-oriented teams that will try to pound the football and are more than happy with a 7-6 victory, while in the Big 12 you have a bunch of pass-happy teams that don’t play a lick of defense and want to drop 70 each and every week. Personally, the reason I like the ACC is because I find it to be a conference with a good balance between the two and because the team that GT trots out onto the field is vastly different from the team that Boston College, or Miami, or whomever trots out onto the field.
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